NSE shares surge in unlisted market amid IPO buzz. Here's what analysts say

India Today

2 days ago

Shares of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) have seen a meteoric rise in the unlisted market, soaring 60% in just two weeks. Once trading at Rs 1,500, the stock is now fetching Rs 2,400, according to some reports. The surge in the value of its unlisted shares has been driven by swelling retail interest and growing chatter around its long-pending IPO.advertisementWith over one lakh retail shareholders, a record for any unlisted Indian company, NSE has become a hotspot in the grey market. But analysts tracking the unlisted space suggest the rally may not be over just yet.NSE SOARS AMID IPO BUZZDespite the sharp run-up, the exchange is still seen as attractively priced, analysts quoted in a Business Today report said. 'Even after this move, NSE trades at a P/E of 70, compared to BSE's 83 and NSE's financial performance has been much stronger,' Simranjeet Singh Bhatia, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Almondz Global.
It may be noted that from FY22 to FY25, the exchange clocked a 33% compound annual growth in revenue to Rs 19,177 crore, while net profit surged at 36% CAGR to Rs 12,188 crore. For FY25 alone, net profit rose 47% to Rs 12,187.94 crore, with total income up 16.7% year-on-year. NSE also declared a Rs 35-per-share dividend, reinforcing its reputation as a consistent wealth generator.IS THERE FURTHER UPSIDE?advertisementSeveral analysts have suggested that the valuation gap with BSE suggests further upside, provided the NSE lists successfully. Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities Ltd told Business Today that the IPO could unlock value. 'However, it hinges on regulatory clearance from Sebi. If a No Objection Certificate comes through, we could see another leg up in the unlisted price,' he added. At Rs 2,400 a share, NSE's implied market cap stands at around Rs 5.9 lakh crore. That makes it India's fifth most valuable company and the fifth largest stock exchange globally, after NYSE, Nasdaq, Shanghai, and Tokyo.The bullish outlook isn't just about the IPO. It's also about scale and dominance. NSE commands near-total control over Indian equity derivatives and substantial leads in other segments.In Q4FY25, it held 99.8% market share in equity futures, 94.6% in cash trading, 93.9% in currency derivatives, and 81.2% in equity options. Globally, it's the largest derivatives exchange by contract volume and second only to the NYSE in equity trades.Still, not everyone is gung-ho. Some market participants remain cautious given the stock's sharp rally and the lack of clarity on the IPO timeline.'The recent surge is speculative to some extent,' said Hitesh Dharawat of Dharawat Securities. 'Unless we get firm updates on listing, near-term volatility can't be ruled out,' he told Business Today.advertisementFor now, NSE's IPO remains one of the most anticipated events in the Indian capital markets. If regulatory hurdles are cleared and listing proceeds, early investors in the unlisted market could be sitting on a goldmine.(Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)