Pacers vs. Thunder Game 5 Odds, Picks, Best Bets: OKC Heavy Home Favorites

Newsweek

6 hours ago

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder are heavily favored over the Pacers, both in Game 5 on Monday night and in the Finals futures markets.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder are heavily favored over the Pacers, both in Game 5 on Monday night and in the Finals futures markets.
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
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Despite how evenly matched the NBA Finals have been through four games, oddsmakers still expect the Thunder to win the Larry O'Brien Trophy without too much difficulty.
The Thunder -- who entered the series as massive favorites -- won Game 4 in Indianapolis on Friday night to avoid a 3-1 series deficit. They needed a dominant fourth quarter to pull that one out, outscoring the Pacers 31-17 after entering the fourth down 87-80.
Somehow, OKC overcame not only a fourth-quarter deficit, but a 3-for-16 night from 3, in Game 4.
Regular-season MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and OKC are heavily favored tonight in OKC, where they let Game 1 slip away late before dominating Game 2.
NBA Finals Game 5 Betting Odds: Spread, ML
DK FD bet365 IND spread +9.5 (-112) +9.5 (-112) +9.5 (-110) OKC spread -9.5 (-108) -9.5 (-108) -9.5 (-110) IND ML +320 +320 +325 OKC ML -410 -405 -425 Total 225 (o-110; u-110) 224.5 (o-110; u-110) 225 (o-110; u-110)
How to Watch NBA Finals Game 5: Pacers vs. Thunder
Tipoff: 8:30 p.m. ET
Channel: ABC
NBA Finals Winner Odds: Thunder Remain Heavy Favorites
DraftKings : OKC -450; IND +350
FanDuel : OKC -520; IND +400
bet365: OKC -550; IND +400
NBA Finals Game 5 Betting Picks, Analysis
How the Pacers respond tonight after collapsing in the fourth quarter of Game 5 could decide this series.
Indiana was solid offensively for most of Game 4, but it went cold at the wrong time. It made just 5 of 18 fourth-quarter field goal attempts (0-for-8 3pt) after shooting 29-for-62 (47 percent) from the field in the first through third quarters.
On the other end, the Pacers gave up 15 points to SGA, who went 8-for-8 from the free-throw line and 3-for-6 from the field in the fourth to avoid a second straight loss in Indy.
Two other keys for Indy tonight will be rebounding and keeping Gilgeous-Alexander off the free-throw line. The Thunder grabbed four huge offensive rebounds in the fourth quarter of Game 4 and finished with 12 offensive boards and an o-rebounding rate of 31.6.
Chet Holmgren was huge for OKC on Friday night, with 14 points and 15 rebounds in 37 minutes, giving him back-to-back double-doubles (he finished Game 3 with 20 points and 10 rebounds).
If Holmgren and Jalen Williams (53 points combined on 17-for-36 FG shooting in Games 3 and 4) continue to play like they did in Indy after their slow starts to the series, Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers will need to be nearly perfect to win two of the next three.
Indiana's balance and depth have been huge keys throughout their playoff run, but it's going to be tough to keep pace with OKC if center Myles Turner doesn't rediscover his shooting touch and/or get more active on the glass.
He shot 40 percent on 5.5 3PA per game in the regular season. While he's knocked down 35 percent of his postseason 3-pointers, he's shot just 4-for-20 from outside vs. the Thunder, including 2-for-15 in Games 2-4.
While Holmgren grabbed 25 rebounds in the last two games alone, Turner has only pulled down 17 boards in the entire series, with just four in Game 2 and two apiece in Games 3 and 4.
Pacers vs. Thunder Game 5 Best Bets
It would be foolish to write off the Pacers in this series for a number of reasons, but Game 5 feels like a brutal spot for the underdogs after the way they lost Game 4.
Tonight's matchup will come down to more than 3-point shooting, but as long as OKC -- which made 39 percent of its 3-point attempts in Games 1-3 -- avoids another nightmare effort from outside, it's hard to see the Pacers winning this game.
I'm not sure what to expect after tonight's game, but this feels like a spot where the Thunder will get big nights from their big three of SGA, Williams and Holmgren and win big.
There have been a few exceptions (including Game 1 of this series), but I expect the Thunder -- who are 9-2 at home in the playoffs, with eight of those wins by at least 15 points -- to once again win big at home and take a 3-2 lead.
Give me OKC to cover and go over its team total. Yes, 117.5 is a big number, but the Thunder have cleared it eight times in 11 home playoff games. It's also encouraging that they have shot at least 33 percent from deep in 9 of their 11 playoff games at Paycom Center.
Thunder -9.5 (-108 at DraftKings, FanDuel) -- 1 unit
Thunder TT Over 117.5 (-104 at FD) -- 1 unit
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