How the Big Ten rallied around a CFP plan the rest of college football isn't sold on

New York Times

11 hours ago

LAS VEGAS — Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti has tried to sell the public and his colleagues on a College Football Playoff proposal that includes four guaranteed bids for both his conference and the SEC, two each for the Big 12 and ACC and one for the top non-power conference champion. Among all external constituents, the plan lacks momentum.
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Within his conference, however, it's the opposite. Petitti's plan, which would restructure the CFP from a 12-team tournament to a 16-team field beginning in 2026, has drawn rave reviews from his football coaches. At Big Ten media days, 16 of the league's 18 football coaches praised the commissioner in their opening statement. Along with the league's athletic directors, those two groups appear to be in lockstep with Petitti's vision for an access-based CFP field rather than one dependent upon votes from a selection committee.
'They're in sync with the plan because they helped create it,' Petitti told The Athletic on Thursday at Big Ten media days. 'They were involved in the very first conversations.'
Within two months of replacing Kevin Warren as commissioner in 2023, even before the Big Ten invited Washington and Oregon to join the conference, Petitti held what he called 'a really candid conversation' with his league's football coaches. They felt the nine-game league schedule had not been rewarded by the CFP selection committee in comparison with the ACC and SEC, whose teams play eight conference games each. With his media rights contracts in place through the 2029 football season, Petitti reiterated the Big Ten will remain at nine conference games. But he wanted to listen and allowed them to vent, especially about the ambiguous criteria in the CFP selection process.
'You're asking a group of people to get into a room and decide the best 12 or 16 teams in college football, and you're not converting apples to apples,' Penn State coach James Franklin said. 'When you try to compare a nonconference schedule from a conference that plays eight compared to a conference that plays nine, it's going to look different.'
Petitti continued meeting with his football coaches, athletic directors and others to devise a system that would reward the Big Ten for its success but would apply fairly throughout the sport. He targeted a guaranteed number of spots for each conference, which then could choose their own participants (allowing for a few at-large berths) rather than leave their fortunes up to the selection committee. From there, the math led him to this conclusion.
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Based on end-of-season CFP rankings over the system's 11-year history, schools currently playing in the Big Ten would have secured 54 CFP spots if the field consisted of five conference champions and 11 at-large teams (5+11). Fifty-one teams would have qualified from the current SEC, with 27 each from both the ACC and Big 12. Among the other conferences and Notre Dame, 20 teams would have earned CFP spots.
The Big Ten would have sent at least four teams to the CFP each year, with a high of six in three different seasons. The SEC would have sent seven teams to the CFP twice but four times would have sent only three teams. Over that span, the ACC would have topped out with four teams once, with three one-bid seasons. The Big 12 would have sent five teams twice and one team four times.
'He started the conversation with data,' UCLA athletic director Martin Jarmond said. 'Looking at our 18, including the West Coast schools that came in: 'This is where we finish. This is what if this system would have been in place. This is the number for the Big Ten and the SEC.' And when you see the data, when you see the numbers, it paints a very clear picture that we have earned those opportunities.'
In a 5+11 format, the Big Ten would have averaged 4.9 spots, with the SEC close behind (4.6) and the Big 12 and ACC tied at 2.5 spots apiece from 2014 to '24. To ensure the system could accommodate additional teams plus Notre Dame, Petitti targeted four berths each for the Big Ten and SEC and two apiece for the ACC and Big 12, plus the highest-ranked champion outside of those four leagues and three at-large choices available for the selection committee.
Additionally, Petitti wants to add a play-in weekend of three games to determine the Big Ten's guaranteed slots. It includes a championship at a neutral site between the top two teams, while the No. 3 and No. 4 Big Ten teams would host the No. 6 and No. 5 teams, respectively. The three games' winners plus the loser of the championship game would qualify for the CFP, while the play-in game losers would remain in consideration for at-large bids.
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Petitti's goals for the play-in event are layered. It adds two attractive games for the networks, generating more revenue. And it addresses the logistical hurdles of an 18-game league in which the schedules are imbalanced. Last year, for instance, Indiana finished 8-1 but faced only four bowl teams in Big Ten play. Ohio State, which finished 7-2 and went on to win the CFP national title, played three top-five teams (including Indiana) and five that won at least eight games.
'This idea that somehow, like the Big Ten just wants it handed to them,' Petitti said, 'Actually what we're talking about is the opposite. I've seen people criticize this because we want to turn this into an invitational. Explain to me how 11 at-large isn't an invitational, and playing games, earning it on the field, (is)? I actually think it's completely backwards. This is not an invitational. You have to win a game to get in, just like the conference champions have to win to be one of those five. This is an extension of that.
'This is more like the Champions League, where you have different leagues that are coming together to play a tournament.'
In soccer's Champions League, 36 clubs compete within their individual European leagues such as England's Premier League, Germany's Bundesliga and Spain's La Liga to earn access in the following year's competition based on their performance in the most recent domestic season. Some leagues are guaranteed more spots based on historical success. In many ways, it's comparable to what Petitti is pushing.
Petitti's plan is not without risk, however. Under his model, two Big Ten teams would have lost CFP access in 2015 and 2021 to hand a second CFP spot to Big 12 and ACC teams. And the No. 3 or No. 4 squad could miss the CFP in any year with a play-in game loss. Still, Big Ten coaches have bought in.
'I think objective football people will tell you the Big Ten and the SEC are the two best conferences in football,' Indiana's Curt Cignetti said. 'When you look at the Big Ten last year, the fourth-place team at the end of the regular season was Ohio State, and they won the national championship. So, if that's not an argument for four AQs, I don't know what is.'
'I am in 100 percent agreement with what Tony is saying,' Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell said. 'I know that we all want to be aligned in what we're doing, but I don't think there's anything better for college football than to take as much as we can away from a selection committee.'
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As head coach at Cincinnati — then an American Athletic Conference team — Fickell led the Bearcats to consecutive unbeaten regular seasons in 2020 and '21, the latter of which earned a berth in the four-team CFP. Both years, the Bearcats lost to SEC squads in the postseason. Even with his Cincinnati history, Fickell believes a guaranteed number is fair for all parties, and especially for those in the Big Ten and SEC.
'When you're one of those guys on the other end and you're battling for your team, and you're fighting for your team, you get up there on the microphone and you say what you need to say,' Fickell said. 'But the truth of the matter is deep down inside, you know. And that's why I think the more we can take it out of the hands of (a selection committee) — I don't say it's political, because it's not — but it's real. I think it'd be better for college football.'
The athletic directors are behind Petitti's plan because it increases the value of their late-season football games, which likely boosts attendance. Vested Big Ten members are slated to earn $82.7 million — a jump of about $7.4 million — from the league office this fiscal year. Play-in games and guaranteed slots in a 16-team tournament would continue to grow department coffers when they are faced with new expenditures related to revenue sharing with athletes.
'It allows us, in an environment where, potentially, everybody's not playing the same number of conference games, to make our conference games the determining factor in terms of how you access the postseason,' Illinois athletic director Josh Whitman said. 'It allows us to play more meaningful football games with more schools deep into November.'
Petitti recognizes his CFP plan has not garnered enough support, with both the ACC and Big 12 commissioners publicly advocating for the 5+11 model. The Big Ten and SEC have final say over the next CFP format, which must be agreed upon by Dec. 1 to take effect in 2026. Publicly, SEC commissioner Greg Sankey remains lukewarm on Petitti's model. But with a mandate from Big Ten coaches and athletic directors, Petitti remains committed.
'Your obligation is to give fans things that are meaningful,' Petitti said. 'They care about the tradition of it and all that. But we're also trying to get the next generation of fans to connect and have those moments, those opportunities. I think the players deserve it.'