Aspen's Euros cross their fingers about Trump and Ukraine

Politico

17-07-2025

With help from Maggie Miller, Phelim Kine, Amy Mackinnon and Daniel Lippman
Subscribe here | Email Eric
Programming note: In light of the Aspen Security Forum, your favorite national security newsletter will hit your inbox a bit later this week to account for all the fun from Colorado.
ASPEN, Colorado — President DONALD TRUMP's recent embrace of support for Ukraine is getting a cautiously optimistic reception from European officials at the Aspen Security Forum. And they're heaping on the praise in the seeming hope that he doesn't pivot again.
On the mainstage and on the sidelines at the Rocky Mountain confab, European officials are lauding Trump for taking a much harder line on Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN.
At the outset of the conference Tuesday, Latvian Foreign Minister BAIBA BRAŽE told the audience that 'it's great what President Trump has been doing with regard to coming to see that yes, Putin is just bluffing his way through and trying to delay any sort of decision-making in Washington or elsewhere.'
That mood has continued throughout the gathering, as your hosts have talked to European officials over the last several days and successive panels have touched on Trump's about-face.
'He's come to the same conclusion as all of us, he's playing us,' one European official told our own Felicia Schwartz, referring to Trump's take on Putin.
'This is what all Ukrainians hope for,' said Ukrainian member of parliament HALYNA YANCHENKO during a panel Thursday. 'Putin does not understand the language of negotiations … he only understands force. So this is why I really keep my fingers crossed.'
The U.S. is eyeing more support for Ukraine beyond Monday's deal to have Europe purchase U.S. weapons systems. Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said today that Ukraine and the United States are working toward a deal that would enhance Kyiv's drone prowess.
To be sure, even the optimists don't think what Trump's doing vis-à-vis Ukraine is earth-shattering.
'It's not that dramatic but it's good news,' the European official continued. Some Aspen attendees still think the president needs to do more right now to punish Moscow. In an interview Wednesday with Felicia, Braže said Trump shouldn't wait 50 days to impose harsh measures on Putin.
Others are anxious to see more action by Trump before they fully believe the change in messaging.
'What matters is what you do, not what you say. So it's good that weapons are now being sent to Ukraine. That is crucial. But on others — I mean sanctions in 50 days and so forth — I will wait and see what happens,' said THORDIS KOLBRUN REYKFJORD GYLFADÓTTIR, Europe's envoy for the cause of Ukrainian children kidnapped by Russia amid the invasion.
At the White House today, spokesperson KAROLINE LEAVITT stressed that Trump's 50-day deadline is here to stay.
'The president wants this war to end with a diplomatic solution. He has been pushing for it. This administration has spent many hours and a lot of time trying to solve this war very far away,' Leavitt said. 'But the president wants to stop the killing and he wants to save lives.'
The Inbox
DAMAGE ASSESSMENT: U.S. airstrikes against Iran last month mostly destroyed one of three nuclear enrichment sites that the Pentagon targeted, but the others were not as badly damaged and could resume work again in the coming months, according to a recent American assessment scooped by NBC News.
The assessment, which NBC says was recently briefed to U.S. lawmakers, Pentagon officials and some American allies, appears to contradict Trump's own assessment that the Iranian nuclear program was 'completely obliterated' by the American strikes. Trump was reportedly briefed before the strikes on a plan designed by U.S. Central Command to hit more Iranian targets in a weekslong campaign but decided against it, given the possibility that it might bog down the Pentagon in an extended conflict.
SHAKE UP AT UKRAINE HOUSE: OLHA STEFANISHYNA is set to be Ukraine's new ambassador to the U.S. as part of one of Zelenskyy's biggest government shakeups since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion more than three years ago.
Stefanishyna will replace OKSANA MARKAROVA, who became controversial with Republicans following a visit by Zelenskyy to a Scranton munitions plant with Democratic candidates in 2024. Stefanishyna is seen as potentially more palatable to the Trump administration.
It follows a major shakeup in Kyiv. YULIA SVYRYDENKO has become Ukraine's new prime minister. Meanwhile, MYKHAILO FEDOROV will become the first deputy prime minister instead of Svyrydenko and keep his role as digital transformation minister while Ukraine's trade representative and deputy economy minister TARAS KACHKA is set to become the new deputy prime minister on EU integration, Stefanishyna's old job. RUSTEM UMEROV, the former defense minister, is likely to be sent to the national security council in a role that will be announced on Friday.
IT WASN'T ME: Remember that abrupt — and emphatic — Pentagon withdrawal from Aspen earlier this week? Don't blame Trump for it, the White House said.
A White House official told our own Nahal Toosi that the White House did not direct any government agency to pull their speakers from the Aspen Security Forum taking place in Colorado this week.
It's not an about-face from the administration, but it's a sign that the White House isn't going to defend Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH on this one. The Pentagon chief appeared to celebrate the decision to withdraw DOD speakers on social media, and department spokesperson KINGSLEY WILSON slammed Aspen as 'promoting the evil of globalism.'
'At the [Pentagon] we are focused on WARFIGHTING,' Wilson posted on the social media site X this week as she touted the move. 'WE ARE NOT A THINK TANK.'
Make sure to read the rest of Nahal's column outlining the vibes at Aspen.
NETANYAHU'S MEA CULPA: Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU apologized after an Israeli strike hit Gaza's only Catholic Church this morning, following sharp international condemnation.
The attacks killed two and injured several other people. The late POPE FRANCIS called the hundreds of parishioners who were sheltering in the church every night of the Gaza war, and the church became a symbol of the Vatican's opposition to the conflict.
POPE LEO XIV condemned the attack. And joining him were two world leaders who have been reticent to criticize Netanyahu: Italian Prime Minister GIORGIA MELONI and Trump. Meloni, who has been a supporter of Netanyahu in the past but has recently become critical of military actions in the Gaza Strip, said that attacks against the region's civilians 'that Israel has been carrying out for months are unacceptable.'
'No military action can justify such behavior,' Meloni wrote on the social media site X today.
Asked about Trump's reaction to the incident, Leavitt said: 'It was not a positive reaction.' She added, 'It was a mistake by the Israelis to hit that Catholic Church. That is what the prime minister relayed to the president.'
The Israel Defense Forces said the incident is under review.
IT'S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [e-mail], and follow Eric on X @ebazaileimil.
While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on X and Bluesky at: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi.bsky.social‬, @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel
Keystrokes
START USING AI: Former government officials and private sector leaders used a panel at the Aspen forum today to call on the Trump administration to not only set policies around the use of artificial intelligence, but to start using it in day-to-day life so as not to counter national security risks from nations including China.
As our own Maggie Miller writes in, KATRINA MULLIGAN, head of national security partnerships at OpenAI for Government, said on a panel that her company has found that China and nations in the developing world tend to trust AI-enabled technologies, such as OpenAI ChatGPT, far more than individuals in the U.S. and other Western countries.
Mulligan warned this could mean the U.S. might lead on innovation, but be left behind on using it for national security purposes, something she said the government is having a 'hard time' realizing.
'It's not available at every workstation in the DOD for example, and we have to change it,' Mulligan said. 'The only way we're going to start seeing it bear fruit is getting that in the hands of users.'
TARUN CHHABRA, head of national security policy at AI company Anthropic, warned that without faster adoption of AI by the federal government, 'we'll be in for some sort of strategic surprise, and that's the scenario we have to prevent.'
The Complex
PORT IN A STORM: The White House Office of Shipbuilding has found a new home port in the Office of Management and Budget under its powerful director RUSS VOUGHT, as Jack and Joe Gould reported this morning (for Pros!), just four months after Trump first announced it in a national address.
The move to relocate the shipbuilding office under the remit of the powerful OMB chief comes after several staffers already left or reassigned amid a broader upheaval at the National Security Council. The office now faces the tricky task of restaffing, particularly after IAN BENNITT, who led the office, told Joe he has left the administration for the private sector.
For his part, Bennitt told Joe that the budget office is 'the right place for this focus' since the Trump administration is now focused on implementing the April executive order to revamp U.S. commercial shipbuilding and spending the $43 billion to buy and build new vessels through the GOP megabill. But defense industry experts are urging the Navy to get moving, too.
'We — companies — need them to catch the pass from White House and move and buy stuff,' said Austin Gray, the co-founder and CSO of Blue Water Autonomy, a Boston-based builder of autonomous surface ships. 'We are excited about reform and innovation, but need consistent, clear demand for ships. Speeches only do so much. I've seen lots of good ideas and hard work behind the scenes and I'm hopeful.'
On the Hill
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — DEMS KEEPING WATCH: House Foreign Affairs Committee members Reps. SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.), MADELEINE DEAN (D-Pa.) and JOAQUIN CASTRO (D-Texas) are introducing legislation to improve monitoring of U.S. weapons sent abroad to prevent war crimes or civilian harm, NatSec Daily has learned.
It's unlikely the bill will become law, as Republicans have been loath to defy MAGA darling Hegseth, but it's a sign Democrats are trying to appeal to a growing section of voters concerned about the role of U.S.-made weapons in conflicts from Gaza to Sudan.
The Pentagon has moved to shut down offices throughout the military designed to mitigate civilian harm from U.S. airstrikes.
The Democrats' bill aims to create a monitoring program called 'Silver Shield' that would look into whether U.S. arms have been used in humanitarian or human rights violations. If passed, the law would also aim to explicitly prevent U.S. weapons sales to nations or military units that have committed rights violations.
Broadsides
FENTANYL FLIP OFF: The U.S.-China back-and-forth on Beijing's role in America's synthetic opioid overdose epidemic got testy (again) today.
The Chinese government bridled in response to Trump's assertion on Wednesday that Beijing would soon start imposing the death penalty against Chinese citizens convicted of fentanyl trafficking to the U.S. That hit a raw nerve among Chinese government officials still smarting over Trump's imposition of a 10 percent levy on Chinese imports imposed in February as punishment for Beijing's alleged role in the fentanyl trade.
'We've repeatedly made it clear that fentanyl is the U.S.'s problem, not China's. It's the U.S.'s responsibility to solve the issue.' said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson LIN JIAN.
The Trump administration has made reduction in China's exports of precursor chemicals that Mexican cartels process into fentanyl a key condition for a possible trade deal that Beijing hopes may reduce the current 55 percent tariff on Chinese products. The Chinese government took halting steps in that direction by tightening regulations last month on the production of two key precursor chemicals used to produce fentanyl. But Beijing continues to insist that the U.S. opioid overdose epidemic is a problem of domestic demand, not foreign supply.
Transitions
— Mach Industries named PAUL ARCANGELI, former House Armed Services Committee staff director, as senior vice president for government relations and strategy, and former White House National Security Council official IAN BENNITT — yes that Ian Bennitt from above — as vice president of government affairs.
— Blue Water Autonomy hired the top three engineers off DARPA's unmanned ship program, including program leader RYAN MAATTA as its vice president of Marine engineering. Simultaneously, the firm opened a Washington, D.C., office in Navy Yard, where it plans to conduct remote demos of its ship-scale test vessel, where ALLAN CHILDERS and ANDREW VALLOWE are also joining from DARPA as members of the technical staff.
— JACLYN KELLON is now a director on the global policy team at the Semiconductor Industry Association. She most recently was a foreign affairs officer in the Office of Critical Technology Protection at the State Department.
— CHRIS CHAMBERLAIN is joining Morrison Foerster as a partner in its national security group. He most recently was a senior adviser at the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security.
— GABRIEL SCHEINMANN is now Chief of staff to the U.S. Ambassador to France and Monaco CHARLES KUSHNER. He was previously executive director of the Alexander Hamilton Society.
What to Read
— Pema Levy, Mother Jones: The State Department Guts Its Office Combating Human Trafficking
— RAND: Building Taiwan's Resilience
— Carter Malkasian and Zachary Constantino, Foreign Affairs: Nuclear Powers, Conventional Wars
Tomorrow Today
— Aspen Institute, 11 a.m.: 2025 Security Forum
Thanks to our editors, Heidi Vogt and Ester Wells, who we always worry are playing us.