US Tornado Pace Most In 14 Years, Including A Potential Record March
Through April 22, there have been 603 reports of tornadoes so far in 2025, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.
These aren't necessarily the number of actual tornadoes, which is usually solidified after a review of data months later, but rather combinations of reports and those confirmed by the National Weather Service.
That pace is higher than all but one other year - 2011 - in the past 15 years, according to the SPC. April 2011 smashed the record tornado count for any month (758), due to the late-month Super Outbreak and another multi-day mid-month outbreak in the South.
After a somewhat lower than average first two months, tornado counts ramped up quickly in March.
The SPC has a preliminary estimate of 300 reports of tornadoes in March. In a detailed analysis, we estimate at least 223 tornadoes were confirmed by the National Weather Service in March. That's at least double the March average of 104 tornadoes over a 20-year period from 2004-2023.
Once the tally is confirmed a few months from now, we'll know if 2025 will have smashed the March record of 234 tornadoes in 2022.
Three outbreaks contributed to this, particularly a mid-month rash of 113 tornadoes primarily in the South and Mississippi Valley, including three rated EF4.
While there have been some lulls in severe weather, April's tornado count is already above the average through the first three weeks.
We estimate at least 218 tornadoes have been confirmed by the National Weather Service so far in April. That's already above the 20-year average of 202 tornadoes.
Two outbreaks contributed almost all of these twisters. From April 2-7, 150 tornadoes tore through parts of the South and Midwest. Then in the days before and during the Easter holiday weekend, another 60 tornadoes were spawned across the Plains and Midwest.
Last April had the second most twisters (356) of any April since 1950, behind the record from 2011, according to the SPC.
Indiana has already tallied 45 confirmed tornadoes this year. That's more than double the average of any full year, according to the National Weather Service in Indianapolis. It's also the fastest the Hoosier State has tallied at least 40 tornadoes in any year since 1950, according to WTHR-TV meteorologist Sean Ash.
Incredibly, Gibson County in southwest Indiana, was hit by tornadoes on three separate days within less than a month's time on March 15, April 2 and April 10.
Mississippi has already tallied 67 tornadoes in 2025 through April 6, less than 20 tornadoes shy of what happened last year in the Magnolia State.
And in a more weird realm, South Dakota had its first winter tornado in at least 75 years on February 24.
Spring is typically the most active time of year for tornadoes in the U.S.
This spring, however, we've seen a persistent pattern in which a U-shaped southward plunge of the jet stream has punched out of the West into the Plains, South and Midwest.
In this pattern, warm and humid air to fuel thunderstorms streams north from the Gulf. These different wind directions and speeds with height known as wind shear help support severe thunderstorms that can spawn tornadoes.
One other factor in play is the better detection and documentation of weaker (EF0 or EF1) tornadoes in recent decades compared to, say, the mid 20th century known as tornado inflation. Technology such as dual-polarization Doppler radar, social media and drones for aerial video of areas inaccessible to storm survey crews means weaker tornado counts are higher than, say, the 1970s.
(MORE: 2024 Had Second Most US Tornadoes On Record)
You may have noticed the red bar graph shown earlier indicates May is typically the month with the most tornadoes.
Last May had 530 tornadoes across the U.S., more than double the average and just shy of the May record from 2003 (542 tornadoes).
It's too soon to tell if that will repeat itself this year.
But if the weather pattern we described above sets up again in May, more outbreaks of severe weather including tornadoes in the Plains and Midwest could occur in May 2025.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
35 minutes ago
Parents of kids swept away in Texas floods beg lawmakers to protect future campers
When floodwaters rushed through a girl's summer camp nestled in the Texas Hill Country, Michael McCown's 8-year-old daughter was among 27 campers and counselors swept to their deaths. On Wednesday, McCown joined other Camp Mystic parents, some wearing buttons memorializing 'Heaven's 27,' in demanding that Texas lawmakers pass a bill that would boost camp safety, including generally keeping cabins out of flood plains, instituting new requirements for emergency plans and mandating weather radios. 'It will hurt my family forever that, for reasons I still do not know, these protections were not in place nor thought out thoroughly for my daughter and the rest of the girls here,' he said. "Please pass this bill, protect our kids and do not let their deaths be in vain.' McCown's middle child, Linnie, was sandwiched between two brothers. She was sometimes a pest to her 11-year-old brother. But to the youngest, just 3, she was mother figure, making him cereal on weekends so her parents could catch a few minutes of sleep. 'To everyone else she was a joy," her father told lawmakers. "She hugged her teachers, was a friend to everybody and spread an infectious giggle everywhere she went.' Then came the floods. Just before daybreak on the Fourth of July, destructive, fast-moving waters rose 26 feet (8 meters) on the Guadalupe River, washing away homes and vehicles. All told, at least 136 people died, raising questions about how things went so terribly wrong. County leaders were asleep or out of town. The head of Camp Mystic had been tracking the weather beforehand, but it's now unclear whether he saw an urgent warning from the National Weather Service that had triggered an emergency alert to phones in the area, a spokesperson for camp's operators said in the immediate aftermath. Some of the camp's buildings — which flooded — were in what the Federal Emergency Management Agency considered a 100-year flood plain. But in response to an appeal, FEMA in 2013 amended the county's flood map to remove 15 of the camp's buildings from the hazard area. Upon learning of the flooding, McCown rushed to the town of Kerrville to pick up Linnie, receiving an email en route that if parents hadn't been personally contacted, then their daughters are accounted for. 'I felt a wave of relief, which was quickly shattered about 30 minutes later when my wife called incredibly distraught to say that Linnie is missing,' he recalled. He joined the search downstream from the camp and found the body of a deceased girl. He also made two trips to a funeral home to identify bodies. One was not Linnie; the other, he believed, was. He later provided authorities with a DNA swab. He's haunted by questions. 'How," he asked, "could these girls vanish into the night without anyone having eyes on them while cabins literally just 20 yards away had no casualties? So what went wrong?' Cici Williams Steward said assurances that her daughter, Cile Steward, would be safe were betrayed and protocols that should have been in place were ignored. Today, the body of the 8-year-old 'remains somewhere in the devastation of the Guadalupe River,' the only Camp Mystic camper still missing. 'We are suspended in endless anguish, unable to move forward, unable to find peace," a tearful Steward said. "We ask you, please pass SB1 so no parent sends their child to camp believing they are safe only to face this nightmare. And just as urgently, please do not stop the search for Cile Steward. Please do not give up on our girl.' Texas State Sen. Charles Perry described the proposed legislation as a 'legacy to the loss' and an answer to what has been learned during hours of public testimony. He said it's dubbed the 'Heaven's 27 Camp Safety Act.' 'It's only appropriate," Perry said, "to memorialize the 27 little girls that lost their lives at Camp Mystic in this way.'
Axios
41 minutes ago
- Axios
Hurricane Erin threatens N.C. with tropical storm conditions
"Large" Hurricane Erin's storm surge began threatening the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, prompting officials to close a section of Highway 12. The big picture: The National Hurricane Center warned U.S. East Coast beachgoers on Wednesday against swimming at most beaches due to "life-threatening surf and currents," while the N.C. Outer banks was also under threat from "life-threatening" surge flooding and tropical conditions. Many East Coast beaches have already closed in preparation for the storm and N.C. is under a state of emergency. Evacuation orders were in effect for Dare and Hyde counties. Threat level: A storm surge warning was in effect for Cape Lookout to Duck, N.C., and a tropical storm warning was in effect for North Carolina's Beaufort Inlet to Chincoteague, Virginia, including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds. While the now-Category 2 hurricane was not forecast to make landfall in the U.S., forecasters warn much of the East Coast is under threat from the large storm's hurricane-force winds, which the NHC noted in a 5pm Wednesday ET advisory extended outward up to 105 miles from the center. Its tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 265 miles. Areas facing the dangerous conditions include beaches of the Bahamas, much of the East Coast, Bermuda and Atlantic Canada, and tropical storm conditions are expected Thursday on the Virginia coast, according to the NHC. Coastal flood warnings were in effect for the Atlantic coast of Maryland, Virginia, Nebraska and N.C., and along the bay south of the York River, the National Weather Service's Wakefield, Virginia, office said on X Wednesday evening. "Also, Wind Advisories have been issued for Hampton, Norfolk, Chesapeake, and Pasquotank/Camden NE NC." What they're saying: Erin had maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph, with outer rain bands moving just offshore of the coast of N.C., NHC director Mike Brennan said just after 5pm Wednesday ET That's "where conditions are going to quickly deteriorate as we go through the next several hours and into the overnight," he said. "Just a reminder though, that we have this broad risk of dangerous surf and rip current conditions along the entire U.S. coast because of the large size of Erin," Brennan said, adding it's not going to be safe to be at beaches through the week. State of play: Hurricane Erin has fluctuated in size since peaking as a Category 5 storm on Saturday. "Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so, and Erin could become a major hurricane again by tonight," the NHC noted in its 5pm forecast discussion, when the storm was some 295miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C. "Weakening is likely to begin by Friday, but Erin is forecast to remain a hurricane into the weekend." Between the lines: Research shows that climate change is increasing hurricane wind speeds, and Hurricane Erin's rapid intensification over unusually warm waters — conditions data show are up to 100 times more likely because of climate change — illustrates this effect.
New York Times
2 hours ago
- New York Times
How Climate Change Affects Hurricanes Like Erin
Hurricane Erin is whipping up the Atlantic Ocean at speeds over 100 miles per hour. The trajectory of the storm has it staying out to sea, though many effects will be felt close to shore and on land. And some of those effects are made worse by global warming. Overnight on Friday, Hurricane Erin ratcheted up to a Category 5 storm, from a Category 1, becoming one of the top five most quickly intensifying hurricanes on record. As the planet warms, scientists say that rapidly intensifying hurricanes are becoming ever more likely."It's a very easy set of dots to connect,' said Jim Kossin, who worked at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as a hurricane specialist and climate scientist before he retired. 'These rapid intensification events are linked pretty directly to that human fingerprint.' According to the National Hurricane Center, rapid intensification is an increase in a storm's sustained wind speeds of at least 35 miles per hour in a 24-hour period. Between Friday morning and Saturday morning, Hurricane Erin's wind speeds increased by nearly 85 miles per hour, peaking at 161 mph. Daniel Gilford, a climate scientist at Climate Central, a science communication nonprofit, likens hurricanes to the engine of a car. 'They need some fuel source in order to spin, and the fuel source is the ocean surface,' he said. 'So as the temperature of the ocean surface goes up, that adds more fuel that these storms can use to intensify.' For over a century, greenhouse gases emitted by human activity have trapped heat inside the planet's atmosphere. A recent streak of record-breaking temperatures crowned 2024 as the hottest year on record. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
