How will Earth take its last breath? New research gives a detailed description of how life on planet will meet its end
A groundbreaking study by researchers at Toho University, using NASA's advanced planetary modeling, has predicted a major shift in Earth's atmosphere that could make life as we know it impossible.
Published in Nature Geoscience, the research suggests that Earth's oxygen could vanish in about one billion years—shedding new light on the long-term evolution of our planet's atmosphere.
The team ran 400,000 simulations to model how Earth's atmosphere might change as the sun grows hotter with age. While the predicted changes lie far in the future, the findings offer critical insights into planetary science and the eventual fate of Earth's biosphere.
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The study titled "The Future Lifespan of Earth's Oxygenated Atmosphere" explores a future in which oxygen becomes increasingly scarce due to natural changes in the planet's systems. Led by Kazumi Ozaki, an assistant professor at Toho University in Tokyo, the research examines the geological and astronomical factors influencing long-term shifts in Earth's atmosphere.
What has the research revealed?
The role of the Sun One of the core factors leading to
oxygen depletion
is the sun's inevitable aging process. As the sun ages, it will gradually become hotter and brighter. This increase in solar radiation will significantly impact Earth's climate, leading to a series of irreversible changes:
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As temperatures rise, Earth's water bodies will evaporate more rapidly, increasing atmospheric water vapor levels. This warming will also cause surface temperatures to escalate, gradually creating conditions unsuitable for sustaining life. The heat will disrupt the carbon cycle—a crucial process that regulates atmospheric carbon dioxide—weakening its ability to maintain balance. As a result, plant life will begin to die off, stopping the production of oxygen through photosynthesis. Over time, these cascading effects will lead to a dramatic loss of oxygen in Earth's atmosphere, rendering the planet increasingly uninhabitable.
The research revealed that as the carbon cycle deteriorates, the atmosphere will revert to a composition reminiscent of early Earth, characterized by high levels of methane and low oxygen. This transformation mirrors the state before the Great Oxidation Event—a period when Earth's atmosphere became rich in oxygen due to the proliferation of photosynthetic organisms.
Researchers shorten Earth's lifeline
Earlier scientific models suggested that Earth's biosphere would last up to two billion years, primarily due to overheating and the eventual depletion of CO₂ necessary for photosynthesis. However, this new research narrows the timeframe, suggesting a much earlier end to oxygen production.
Kazumi Ozaki emphasized that while the eventual demise of Earth's biosphere was acknowledged, pinpointing the timing and the precise process of deoxygenation remained elusive. This study, using advanced supercomputer simulations, provides a clearer understanding by simulating numerous potential scenarios.
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