
Trump, Truss and the bond market's bad vibes
Reassurance is rarely needed when confidence is intact, so the fact US treasury secretary
Scott Bessent
felt obliged to insist the US 'is never going to default' was alarming in itself.
His comments followed JPMorgan Chase CEO
Jamie Dimon
's warning that a 'crack' in the bond market 'is going to happen'.
US debt as a share of GDP will likely exceed its 1940s peak in the coming years, but that's not investors' only concern. There's also the Trump administration's uneasy relationship with economic norms – in February, president Donald Trump suggested the US may have less debt than reported due to fraud – and its willingness to think the unthinkable across many fronts.
That mindset found a kindred voice in former UK prime minister
Liz Truss
, who recently resurfaced in the Washington Post to offer advice to
Donald Trump
and blame her own implosion on the 'entire Davos elite'.
READ MORE
[
In war-torn nations, Trump's travel ban brings a new hardship
Opens in new window
]
[
Elon Musk says Trump's 'big, beautiful' tax and spending Bill is a 'disgusting abomination'
Opens in new window
]
Accusing markets and global institutions of conspiring to 'bully policymakers', she claimed her downfall was driven by a 'globalist economic establishment' opposed to tax cuts and economic freedom, and complained Boris Johnson was ousted 'with a view to installing the former Goldman Sachs banker Rishi Sunak'.
Far from being run by an elitist cabal, bond prices are shaped by everything from central banks to pension funds and ordinary savers. The 'dastardly goal', as the FT's Edward Luce dryly put it, 'is to invest in a safe asset'.
If bond markets are uneasy, the cause may be less shadowy conspiracy and more about what's now thinkable.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Irish Times
an hour ago
- Irish Times
Why Donald Trump is only beginning his pursuit of the ‘enemy within'
It is a fraught moment to stage a military parade in America's capital. The display of tanks, aircraft and march-bys on Saturday will coincide with the US Army's 250th anniversary and Donald Trump's 79th. It will also come a week after Trump put the National Guard on the streets of Los Angeles – the first time in 60 years a president has done so in defiance of the state governor. The two situations are poles apart. In 1965, Lyndon B Johnson deployed troops to protect civil rights marchers from Alabama's trigger-happy local police. In 2025, Trump's declared aim is to protect federal agents and buildings from local protesters. Unlike LBJ's, Trump's mission is open-ended. Johnson was sealing his desegregation of the south. Trump, on the other hand, is only beginning his pursuit of America's 'enemy from within'. READ MORE That the protests are local is irrelevant. Neither California nor LA are mentioned in Trump's executive order that cites an obscure law to justify intervening anywhere. Think of LA as Trump's first beachhead in a national campaign. 'We're going to have troops everywhere,' he said. His order would also allow the federal army to be deployed on US streets. Trump's campaign of mass deportation is getting under way. [ Los Angeles protests: US deploys Marines as Trump backs arrest of California governor Opens in new window ] Trump has two advantages in his clearest step so far towards authoritarianism. The first is that he can claim a mandate. Throughout the campaign, he vowed to deport millions of migrants – with the help of the US military if necessary. In theory, public opinion is marginally on his side. Second, Trump knows there are enough masked Mexican flag-wavers among the protesters to supply him with the pretext to escalate. That is the point. Every rock hurled lands like a penny in Trump's wishing well. America's left should recall that Martin Luther King's protests were scrupulously peaceful. The goal of racist local sheriffs was to provoke violence. Though most LA protesters are peaceful, the infamous ICE – Immigration and Customs Enforcement – is having an easier job of it. To underline, Trump's claim is that the left is antinational, extremist and violent. The protesters, in turn, are defending due process, including for the millions of immigrants in Trump's sights. The US republic's future could hinge on which side is identified with the rule of law. [ Explainer: is it legal for Trump to use US troops to suppress protests? Opens in new window ] Who would bet against Trump in the battle for public opinion? Less than 200 days into his second term, he has trampled over more laws and ripped up more precedents than any leader in US history. He has enriched himself and his family with overseas crypto sales and golf resort deals, launched a war on leading universities and medical institutions, ignored serial court orders to give deportees legal rights, declared, paused and partially resumed economic war on the world, and targeted his enemies with investigations and stripped them of security protection. Trump's assault on democratic norms has been breathtaking in scale and speed. Yet his approval rating is still at 45 per cent. The Democrats have been helping Trump along. The party is split on how strongly it should fight Trump's deportations. The principled stance would be to do whatever it takes to uphold the rule of law. Deportations should happen if due process is followed. By contrast, putting troops on America's streets poses a mortal threat to federal democracy. That America's left speaks with many tongues is helpful to Trump, whose party listens only to his. Did you witness Republican outrage over Trump's threat of targeting Elon Musk's business empire? Neither did I. Ditto for his assault on America's leading law firms, foreign students, media conglomerates and scientific research. Here is where the LA situation is likely to lead. ICE is Trump's crack agency. Its agents are raiding restaurants, law courts, retail centres and day labour assembly points across the country. Trump's 'big, beautiful [budget] bill' will earmark $185 billion (€167 billion) for immigration enforcement, including ICE, which is more than the annual military spending of the UK and France combined. Wherever ICE raids trigger protests, Trump can send in the troops. Expect Chicago, San Francisco, Denver and other cities to feature soon. Do not expect Trump to back down. Stephen Miller, his militant henchman and deputy chief of staff, wants 3,000 immigrants a day deported and brands opposition to ICE raids as 'insurrection'. Expelling that many people will require a lot of armed manpower. The economic bill will show up in the form of higher food prices and home-construction costs. The toll on the US rule of law and social stability will be incalculably higher. – The Financial Times Limited 2025


Irish Times
2 hours ago
- Irish Times
AI still key for Apple, but Siri updates take a back seat
Apple introduced new AI-powered features for its software at its developer conference on Monday, but said the long-awaited update to its Siri digital assistant needed more time. Apple executives showed off its plans for the future of its software at the Worldwide Developer Conference (WWDC), which is being held in Cupertino this week. Artificial intelligence plays a key role in supporting some of the main features announced by the company, including live translation for phone calls and messages, a workout buddy for Apple Watch and call screening. Apple is also expanding its partnership with OpenAI that saw ChatGPT brought in to deal with queries that Apple Intelligence could not answer, supporting some of the new features in Apple's updated software coming later this year. READ MORE But the technology took a less central role than in last year's WWDC, when the company unveiled its Apple Intelligence product, with Apple choosing this year to focus on user interface updates and the streamlined look for its software. The updated software incorporates a user interface design that Apple is calling Liquid Glass, which uses transparent menus in a look that owes a lot to the Vision Pro headset's software. Apple unveils its Liquid Glass concept. Photograph:'This is our broadest software design update ever,' said Alan Dye, Apple's vice president of Human Interface Design. 'It combines the optical qualities of glass with a fluidity only Apple can achieve, as it transforms depending on your content or context. It lays the foundation for new experiences in the future and, ultimately, it makes even the simplest of interactions more fun and magical.' The new look will unify the software across Apple's mobile, tablet, computer, TV, smartwatches and Vision Pro devices. 'The introduction of the new Liquid Glass UI across all hardware platforms brings more consistency for users and makes sense given the growing number of consumers who own more than one Apple product,' said CCS Insight analyst Ben Wood. 'CCS Insight research in advanced markets such as the US and UK indicates that 68 per cent of iPhone owners own at least one other Apple device, and 31 per cent of iPhone owners own at least two additional Apple devices.' How to manage your pension in these volatile times Listen | 37:00 Apple has also updated the software names, with the next version of Apple's software named iOS26, iPadOS26 and VisionOS 26. The newest Mac software, the last update for Intel-based Macs, will be called MacOS Tahoe 26. Apple also expanded its customised emoji feature, allowing users to combine two emojis to create a new one, or add a text description to an existing emoji. The company has been criticised for its approach to AI, facing accusations of falling behind rivals. [ Apple's fall from top of tree reflects cooling growth outlook Opens in new window ] 'While it might seem, others are leading the AI race, it is not a sought-after feature among users and there's no revenue uplift (for now). Considering the negative perception, Apple needs to tread carefully not to frustrate and disappoint its loyal base of (iPhone) users,' said PP Foresight analyst Paolo Pescatore. 'With these latest updates providing a more coherent feel, Apple remains in an enviable position given its large installed base of users. The subtle addition of Apple Intelligence across key services will help grow awareness and provide users with confidence to drive further engagement. The tight integration between hardware, software and services really stands out with this latest move.' Apple continued to push its privacy credentials, highlighting the on-device models for Live Translation, rather than sending data to the cloud. The feature will also be open to developers of third party apps through Apple's Foundation Models Framework. Apple has also introduced new Accessibility Nutrition Labels for App Store product pages to help highlight supported accessibility features to customers before they download an app or game. The App Store ecosystem facilitated $1.3 trillion (€1.1 trillion) in developer billings and sales in 2024, Apple said, quoting a new study by economists Prof Andrey Fradkin and Dr Jessica Burley. The company was recently compelled by the European Commission to open up access to the 'walled garden' App Store under the new Digital Markets Act. Third party app stores can now access the iPhone and iPad, although they are still subject to some controls.


Irish Times
2 hours ago
- Irish Times
US tariffs will result in shock to global growth but not recession, World Bank says
US trade tariffs will result in a major slowdown in global growth but not a recession, the World Bank has said. In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the Washington-based institution said that heightened trade tensions and wider policy uncertainty would drive global growth down this year 'to its slowest pace since 2008 outside of outright global recessions'. It noted that the turmoil had resulted in growth forecasts being cut in nearly 70 per cent of economies. US president Donald Trump's on-off tariff threats have sent shockwaves through the global economy with investment and consumption stalling in the face of uncertain US trade policy. READ MORE The World Bank said it expected global growth to slow to 2.3 per cent in 2025, nearly half a percentage point lower than the rate that had been expected at the start of the year. However it said a global recession was not expected. [ World Bank and IMF announce support and funding for countries affected by natural disasters Opens in new window ] 'Nevertheless, if forecasts for the next two years materialise, average global growth in the first seven years of the 2020s will be the slowest of any decade since the 1960s,' it said. The bank also warned that tariff increases and tight labour markets were 'also exerting upward pressure' on global inflation, which, at a projected average of 2.9 per cent in 2025, remains above pre-pandemic levels. How to manage your pension in these volatile times Listen | 37:00 Without referencing Mr Trump directly, the bank said the outlook largely hinged on the evolution of trade policy globally. Growth could turn out to be lower if trade restrictions escalate and policy uncertainty persists, it said. 'Other downside risks include weaker-than-expected growth in major economies with adverse global spillovers, worsening conflicts, and extreme weather events,' it said Conversely uncertainty and trade barriers could 'diminish' if major economies reach lasting agreements. [ How a man described as 'dumber than a sack of bricks' came to dominate global trade policy Opens in new window ] 'The analysis finds that if today's trade disputes were resolved with agreements that halve tariffs relative to their levels in late May, global growth would be 0.2 percentage point stronger on average over the course of 2025 and 2026,' it said. The European Union (EU) is currently negotiating with Washington to reduce the impact of existing and incoming tariffs on EU exports to the US. 'Outside of Asia, the developing world is becoming a development-free zone,' said Indermit Gill, the World Bank's chief economist. 'It has been advertising itself for more than a decade. Growth in developing economies has ratcheted down for three decades – from 6 per cent annually in the 2000s to 5 per cent in the 2010s – to less than 4 per cent in the 2020s,' he said. 'That tracks the trajectory of growth in global trade, which has fallen from an average of 5 per cent in the 2000s to about 4.5 per cent in the 2010s – to less than 3 per cent in the 2020s,' he said. 'Investment growth has also slowed, but debt has climbed to record levels,' he said.