Is Bitcoin turning into the ‘new boring' of investing?

Techday NZ

07-05-2025

Crypto used to be the financial equivalent of a Red Bull‑fuelled roller‑coaster. But here we are - Bitcoin up double‑digits during the last week of April while the Nasdaq shed 10 %, the S&P slipped 8.5 % and even the Dow limped 8 % lower. When the most volatile kid in class suddenly sits quietly at the front row, you have to ask yourself: are we watching Bitcoin grow into a safe‑haven adult?
A safe harbour in a soap‑opera
Markets run on forward‑looking confidence but right now, Washington is serving up cliff‑hanger after cliff‑hanger: tariff escalations and uncertainty, policy U‑turns and press‑conference plot twists that would make a daytime drama blush. The US dollar has wobbled more than 10 % in a fortnight - gifting the rest of the globe surprise purchasing power.
Significantly, when the reserve currency 'sneezes', capital grabs its mask and looks for opportunities that aren't nailed to a single flag.
This is why we're seeing: Gold spiking - central banks vacuumed up more than a third of annual supply last year.
Blue‑chip Asia‑Pac equities rallying - there is free‑trade optimism in Seoul, Tokyo and Beijing which means this stock is suddenly fashionable again.
Bitcoin grinding higher - algorithmic scarcity and neutrality has never looked so comforting.
The lesson here is that leadership certainty is optional, but math‑driven scarcity sells itself.
Bitcoin vs gold: a question of 'old metal, new metal'
Gold has been humanity's crisis blanket for millennia - it is universally recognised, ornamental and immune to software bugs. That deep‑rooted societal acceptance gives the metal a definite head start over Bitcoin and its total market value is still much larger. Gold also cruises at about one‑third of Bitcoin's volatility and carries zero technical risk. Unsurprisingly, central banks remain gold's biggest fans, buying up roughly a third of yearly production.
Yet according to NYDIG, "In nearly every other measure…bitcoin has the edge – supply growth, monetary policy, supply cap, as well as its usability stemming from its digital only nature. Even in the areas in which bitcoin is deficient compared to gold, longevity and volatility, those gaps are narrowing over time."
Annualised realised volatility has slid to just over 50 %, down from triple digits only a few years ago, while gold's own calm surface is rippling higher and NYDIG notes the volatility ratio between the two assets has already compressed to 3.6 : 1 and expects further convergence. In other words, Bitcoin is maturing, all the while the broader market gets choppier. (The surge of far more speculative altcoins has also made Bitcoin look relatively conservative.)
Gold remains the elder statesman - trusted, stable and vault‑friendly - but Bitcoin is the up‑and‑comer - scarcer by design, borderless by nature and increasingly less wild than its reputation suggests. Will portable, programmable scarcity prove the 21st‑century upgrade to an ancient store of value?
Boring belongs in every portfolio
'Boring' is portfolio code for decorrelation. In simple terms, you want pieces that zig when everything else zags. Having some of your portfolio allocated to Bitcoin means that you're suddenly holding an asset that doesn't care about Fed rate whispers or election‑season Tweet storms.
Institutional 'stealth allocators' now include family offices, endowments and macro funds - adding quiet weight. What's more, whilst the macro narratives shift from growth to protection and real yields turn negative, non‑sovereign stores of value like crypto suddenly become very shiny.
The killer combo: scarcity + silence
There's a saying: the loudest investors often write the smallest cheques. The deep‑pocket allocators usually operate in stealth and you only learn about their positions two quarters later in a footnote. That silence has been growing louder - pension funds won't livestream their buys, but on‑chain data shows wallets associated with institutional custodians are expanding month after month.
If you believe the wisdom of following the quiet money, Bitcoin's 'boring phase' might be your cue to pay attention - precisely because there's a lot less noise.
Bottom line is always: discipline > drama
Bitcoin isn't done surprising us, but the surprises are starting to tilt positively when everything else is bleeding red. In an age of rolling headlines and fiscal soap operas, an asset with a fixed supply, borderless settlement and maturing volatility feels - dare we say - very responsible and the market might already be voting 'yes'.