With two hurricanes in a week, New England was paralyzed in August 1955. Erin could take a similar route.

Boston Globe

20 hours ago

Hurricane Connie made landfall on Aug. 12, 1955, as a Category 2 hurricane, pushing north through the Mid-Atlantic and eventually breaking and dissolving over the Great Lakes.
Advertisement
New England was stuck on the eastern side of the storm, where moisture continued to spawn repeat bands of heavy rain that produced bursts of downpours, even though the strongest winds were concentrated to the southwest.
A swath of 4 to 6 inches of rain fell across the region, with locally higher amounts of 7 to 10 inches across Western Massachusetts and Connecticut. There were only a handful of flooding events from Connie because the ground was able to absorb and retain most of the water.
Rainfall across New England from Connie concentrated across the Southwest.
NWS
About five days later, Hurricane Diane followed in Connie's wake, making landfall on Aug. 17 about 150 miles south of where Connie approached the Carolina shore, this time as a Category 1 storm.
Advertisement
Instead of taking a turn toward the Great Lakes, Diane decided to turn to the northeast, placing the center of the storm over Long Island Sound and Nantucket. This track brought the most intense rainfall over Southern New England.
Combined with the already saturated soil and river levels riding high from Connie, Hurricane Diane hammered the region with over 20 inches of rain within two days in some areas. Numerous rivers overflowed, and significant flooding and dam breaks stretched across parts of Massachusetts and Connecticut.
Over 200 dams in New England suffered partial or total failure, dozens of people were killed across New England, while the flooding led to what would become the first billion-dollar natural disaster on record for the country.
A newspaper photographer wades hip deep in swirling flood waters in Scranton, Pa., where about 35 people were rescued by a Marine Reserve boat after Hurricane Diane on Aug. 19, 1955.
NOAA
Hurricane Diane delivered exceptional rainfall over two days.
NWS
How Tropical Storm Erin compares to Connie and Diane
Most tropical meteorologists compare existing conditions with what unfolded in years past, with similar environmental and climatological factors in place — all to help fine-tune forecasting outside of what the models spit out.
This is by no means a forecast, but I have to say that there are a few striking comparisons that have made me think a little harder about what's
First, Erin is developing in a similar geographic spot. Only about 40 tropical systems have formed within the same zone since records began in 1851; of those storms, only five have made landfall. Diane and Connie were among those five. All of the others curved north, away from land and out of harm's way.
Second, Connie and Diane had hot sea-surface temperatures to thrive on, and heat reached deep into the ocean, as well. Typically, a hurricane draws enough heat out of an ocean to cool down the waters a bit in its wake. Diane was able to thrive with deeper ocean heat present at the time. Similarly, Erin will be traversing across high sea-surface temperatures running about 2 to 3 degrees Celsius above average.
Advertisement
Both Connie and Diane went through bouts of rapid intensification, and Erin will likely as well.
Sea surface temperatures are running nearly 2 degrees Celsius above average.
NOAA
Lastly, two high-pressure ridges — the Bermuda High over the Northern Atlantic and another over the eastern half of the US and Canada — were in place during Connie and Diane. Both hurricanes rode along the edges of the two, ultimately with the Bermuda High being the stronger and influencing the track toward landfall.
As of now, models are suggesting the opposite may occur with Erin, with a stronger ridge present over the country, bumping the storm out to sea. Ultimately, steering will come down to the influence of these competing high pressures, and forecasters will be monitoring Erin's track closely over the next week.
Ken Mahan can be reached at