US retailers speed up imports before China tariff hits

Yahoo

19 hours ago

Import volumes at major US container ports are projected to rise significantly this summer, as retailers move quickly to bring in goods ahead of the expiry of temporary tariff reductions on Chinese imports.
According to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, importers are taking advantage of a 90-day suspension in newly imposed tariffs to stock up for the back-to-school and holiday seasons.
Following the Biden administration's 90-day pause on the recently introduced 145% tariff on Chinese imports—now temporarily reduced to 30% until 12 August—retailers have resumed import orders previously halted due to cost concerns.
The decision to suspend the reciprocal tariffs, which also affect other trading nations, has created a narrow window for businesses to move goods before full tariff enforcement resumes.
'This is a crucial period for retail supply chains,' said Jonathan Gold, Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy at NRF. 'Importers are racing to bring in merchandise before the current tariff relief expires, aiming to avoid future price increases and ensure shelves are stocked for key sales periods.'
Final figures for April show that ports processed 2.21 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), marking a 2.9% increase from March and a 9.6% rise year over year.
However, May imports are projected to have declined sharply, falling to an estimated 1.91 million TEU. This would represent a 13.4% drop from April and an 8.1% decrease from May 2024—the first year-on-year drop since September last year.
June and July are expected to see a modest recovery as retailers capitalise on the tariff pause. June volumes are forecast at 2.01 million TEU, still down 6.2% compared to last year, while July could reach 2.13 million TEU, down 8.1%.
August is projected to record a steeper year-over-year decline of 14.7%, at 1.98 million TEU.
Analysts warn that the current import surge is likely to be short-lived. Without an extension to the tariff relief, import volumes are expected to fall sharply from September onward.
September TEUs are forecast at 1.78 million, down 21.8% from the same month in 2024. October is expected to see a similar decline, with 1.8 million TEU anticipated—a 19.8% year-over-year drop.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, noted that the recent spike in import activity is being driven by temporary tariff policies rather than sustained demand.
'The tariff pause is creating a false peak,' Hackett said. 'Once it ends, we expect a pronounced drop in shipping volumes for the remainder of the year.'
For the first half of 2025, total import cargo volume is projected at 12.54 million TEU, a 3.7% increase over the same period in 2024. While this figure is an improvement over earlier forecasts made before the tariff pause, it still lags behind projections made prior to the introduction of the April tariffs.
The situation remains fluid as the US administration continues trade negotiations, leaving retailers and port operators uncertain about future tariff levels and their impact on supply chain stability.
"US retailers speed up imports before China tariff hits" was originally created and published by Retail Insight Network, a GlobalData owned brand.
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