Latest news with #HackettAssociates
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
US Imports Set for Summer Spike as Retailers Race Tariff Clock
Import cargo at top U.S. ports is expected to see a surge this summer as retailers take advantage of last month's 90-day rollback in tariffs imposed on China, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. A down May—when mass tariff-driven booking cancellations led to a decline in trans-Pacific sailings—is expected to be followed up by a stronger-than-expected summer season as more brands rush to bring goods into the U.S. ahead of tariff deadlines in July and August. More from Sourcing Journal China and US Return to Terms of May Trade Truce Tariff Fallout Hits LA Port: Cargo Decline Leaves Half of Dockworkers Idle Hapag-Lloyd Bookings Double on China-US Route in Weeks After Tariff Truce Ports have not yet reported official numbers for May, but the Global Port Tracker projected an 8.1 percent year-over-year dip to 1.91 million 20-foot-equivalent units (TEUs). This prediction is ahead of the 1.81 million TEUs the tracker had called for last month, which would have marked a 12.9 percent decrease. May's projected decline would be the first year-over-year drop since September 2023 and the lowest inbound cargo volume since 1.87 million TEUs entered the ports in December 2023. June is forecast at 2.01 million TEUs down 6.2 percent year over year. The forecast is a significant improvement from the previous projection of 1.71 million TEUs, which would have been the lowest volume since March 2023 and represent a 20.2 percent drop year over year. 'This is the busiest time of the year for retailers as they enter the back-to-school season and prepare for the fall-winter holiday season,' said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy, NRF, in a statement. 'Retailers had paused their purchases and imports previously because of the significantly high tariffs. They are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August.' As part of the tariff relief, the Trump administration pared back what had escalated to a 145 percent import duty on Chinese goods down to 30 percent. That relief has been the main catalyst for expected influx of cargo and ensuing shift in predictions. The current forecast would bring the first half of 2025 to 12.54 million TEUs, up 3.7 percent year over year. That's better than the 12.13 million-TEU forecast last month before the tariff pause was unveiled, but still below the 12.78 million TEU, up 5.7 percent year over year, forecast before President Donald Trump's April 2 'Liberation Day' tariffs announcement. In July, the inbound cargo total is expected to be 2.13 million TEUs, down 8.1 percent from the year prior. Previously, import volumes had a projected 23.4 percent year-over-year drop to 1.77 million TEUs. And for August, the traditional start of the peak shipping season, will bring in 1.98 million TEUs, a 14.7 percent decrease from last year. The prior numbers calculated 1.82 million TEUs entering major American ports, a 21.5 percent decline. 'Retailers want to ensure consumers will be able to find the products they need and want at prices they can afford. Unfortunately, there is still considerable uncertainty as to what will happen after the pauses end,' said Gold. 'We strongly encourage the administration to continue negotiating agreements with our trading partners in order to restore predictability and stability to the supply chain.' The higher projections come as more capacity continues to come online on the trans-Pacific trade lane. A recent report from maritime trade advisory service Sea-Intelligence indicates container shipping lines are planning to offer approximately 18 percent more year-over-year capacity on the Asia-to-North American West Coast trade lane in June and July—furthering speculation that ports in Los Angeles and Long Beach could see record traffic in the summer months. 'The peak for the winter holidays will come early this year, making it simultaneous with the peak for the back-to-school season,' said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. 'If higher tariffs are not delayed again, we can expect the final four months of the year to see declining volumes of imports.' September's estimate remains in line with last month's expectation, with at 1.78 million TEUs, a 21.8 percent year-over-year contraction. The first projection for October calls for 1.8 million TEUs, down 19.8 percent. According to the Global Port Tracker, sharp declines for 2025's closing months are still expected partly due to elevated imports in late 2024, when there were rampant concerns about both the tariffs and the East Coast and Gulf Coast port strikes. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Fibre2Fashion
2 days ago
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
US import cargo to surge amid temporary tariff relief on Chinese goods
Import cargo volumes at major US container ports are set to rise this summer following a temporary pause and reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. Retailers, who had halted orders after the April announcement of a 145 per cent tariff, resumed imports after the rate was reduced to 30 per cent and a 90-day pause was introduced, lasting until August 12. US import cargo volumes are expected to rise this summer as retailers rush to bring in goods during a 90-day pause and tariff reduction on Chinese imports, ending in August. April imports rose 9.6 per cent year on year but May saw a sharp drop. Volumes are forecast to rebound Juneâ€'August, ahead of a possible decline later in 2025 if tariffs resume, according to Global Port Tracker. 'This is the busiest time of the year for retailers as they enter the back-to-school season and prepare for the fall-winter holiday season. Retailers had paused their purchases and imports previously because of the significantly high tariffs. They are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August. Retailers want to ensure consumers will be able to find the products they need and want at prices they can afford. Unfortunately, there is still considerable uncertainty as to what will happen after the pauses end,' NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said in a press release. US ports handled 2.21 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in April, up 2.9 per cent from March and 9.6 per cent year on year. However, volumes are expected to have dropped in May to 1.91 million TEU, down 13.4 per cent month on month and 8.1 per cent year on year, marking the first annual decline since September 2023. Despite the slowdown, imports are projected to rebound from June through August, though remaining below 2024 levels. June is forecast at 2.01 million TEU (down 6.2 per cent YoY), July at 2.13 million TEU (down 8.1 per cent), and August at 1.98 million TEU (down 14.7 per cent). A sharper drop is expected later in the year due to strong comparisons against high 2024 volumes driven by port strike concerns. 'Our projections show that May saw a significant reduction in imports as shippers responded to the higher tariff environment,' Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. 'However, tariff reductions will lead to a surge in imports in June through August as importers take advantage of the various 90-day pauses. The peak for the winter holidays will come early this year, making it simultaneous with the peak for the back-to-school season. If higher tariffs are not delayed again, we can expect the final four months of the year to see declining volumes of imports.' The first half of 2025 is now forecast at 12.54 million TEU, up 3.7 per cent year on year—an improvement from earlier estimates but still trailing pre-tariff projections. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KD)
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
US imports expected to surge as tariff relief fuels summer cargo boom
The 145% tariff on China announced by the Trump administration in April has triggered retailers to suspend or cancel orders; however, with the reduction of tariffs to 30% and a pause effective until 12 August, retailers have resumed importing. Reciprocal tariffs on other nations are also on hold until 9 July amidst ongoing negotiations. NRF supply chain and customs policy vice president Jonathan Gold said: 'Retailers had paused their purchases and imports previously because of the significantly high tariffs. They are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August.' In April, before the tariff impacts were felt, US ports covered by Global Port Tracker processed 2.21 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), marking a year-over-year increase of 9.6%. Although May figures were not available at the time of reporting, projections indicate a decline due to the April tariffs, with an estimated 1.91 million TEU, which is down by 13.4% from April and down 8.1% year over year. If the expected figures become a reality, it would mark the first YoY decline since September 2023 and the lowest volume since December 2023, when it recorded 1.87 million TEU. Despite some tariffs being paused, import numbers are predicted to rise this month, although the figure is still expected to be 6.2% lower than the previous year at 2.01 million TEU. In July, imports are expected to reach 2.13 million TEU, a decrease of 8.1% and August imports are predicted to fall to 1.98 million TEU, representing a 14.7% decline. Import volumes are projected to plummet dramatically for the rest of 2025, with significant annual declines partly because the latter part of 2024 experienced heightened import activity due to apprehensions regarding potential strikes at ports along the East Coast and Gulf Coast. The projection for September is 1.78 million TEU, a 21.8% fall year over year, and October's forecast is at 1.8 million TEU, a decrease of 19.8%. The first half of 2025 is projected to reach 12.54 million TEU, which is an improvement from previous forecasts but still below pre-April tariff levels. In April, NRF and Hackett Associates forecast a 20% drop in US import cargo volumes in the second half of 2025 (H2 2025) just before President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on "reciprocal" tariffs with the exception of China. "Retailers want to ensure consumers will be able to find the products they need and want at prices they can afford. Unfortunately, there is still considerable uncertainty as to what will happen after the pauses end. We strongly encourage the administration to continue negotiating agreements with our trading partners in order to restore predictability and stability to the supply chain,' Gold According to the latest data from the US Office of Apparel and Textiles (OTEXA), US apparel import volumes surged in April, with many of the top 10 suppliers to the US seeing double-digit growth. "US imports expected to surge as tariff relief fuels summer cargo boom" was originally created and published by Just Style, a GlobalData owned brand. The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
US retailers speed up imports before China tariff hits
Import volumes at major US container ports are projected to rise significantly this summer, as retailers move quickly to bring in goods ahead of the expiry of temporary tariff reductions on Chinese imports. According to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, importers are taking advantage of a 90-day suspension in newly imposed tariffs to stock up for the back-to-school and holiday seasons. Following the Biden administration's 90-day pause on the recently introduced 145% tariff on Chinese imports—now temporarily reduced to 30% until 12 August—retailers have resumed import orders previously halted due to cost concerns. The decision to suspend the reciprocal tariffs, which also affect other trading nations, has created a narrow window for businesses to move goods before full tariff enforcement resumes. 'This is a crucial period for retail supply chains,' said Jonathan Gold, Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy at NRF. 'Importers are racing to bring in merchandise before the current tariff relief expires, aiming to avoid future price increases and ensure shelves are stocked for key sales periods.' Final figures for April show that ports processed 2.21 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), marking a 2.9% increase from March and a 9.6% rise year over year. However, May imports are projected to have declined sharply, falling to an estimated 1.91 million TEU. This would represent a 13.4% drop from April and an 8.1% decrease from May 2024—the first year-on-year drop since September last year. June and July are expected to see a modest recovery as retailers capitalise on the tariff pause. June volumes are forecast at 2.01 million TEU, still down 6.2% compared to last year, while July could reach 2.13 million TEU, down 8.1%. August is projected to record a steeper year-over-year decline of 14.7%, at 1.98 million TEU. Analysts warn that the current import surge is likely to be short-lived. Without an extension to the tariff relief, import volumes are expected to fall sharply from September onward. September TEUs are forecast at 1.78 million, down 21.8% from the same month in 2024. October is expected to see a similar decline, with 1.8 million TEU anticipated—a 19.8% year-over-year drop. Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, noted that the recent spike in import activity is being driven by temporary tariff policies rather than sustained demand. 'The tariff pause is creating a false peak,' Hackett said. 'Once it ends, we expect a pronounced drop in shipping volumes for the remainder of the year.' For the first half of 2025, total import cargo volume is projected at 12.54 million TEU, a 3.7% increase over the same period in 2024. While this figure is an improvement over earlier forecasts made before the tariff pause, it still lags behind projections made prior to the introduction of the April tariffs. The situation remains fluid as the US administration continues trade negotiations, leaving retailers and port operators uncertain about future tariff levels and their impact on supply chain stability. "US retailers speed up imports before China tariff hits" was originally created and published by Retail Insight Network, a GlobalData owned brand. The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
US retailers speed up imports before China tariff hits
Import volumes at major US container ports are projected to rise significantly this summer, as retailers move quickly to bring in goods ahead of the expiry of temporary tariff reductions on Chinese imports. According to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, importers are taking advantage of a 90-day suspension in newly imposed tariffs to stock up for the back-to-school and holiday seasons. Following the Biden administration's 90-day pause on the recently introduced 145% tariff on Chinese imports—now temporarily reduced to 30% until 12 August—retailers have resumed import orders previously halted due to cost concerns. The decision to suspend the reciprocal tariffs, which also affect other trading nations, has created a narrow window for businesses to move goods before full tariff enforcement resumes. 'This is a crucial period for retail supply chains,' said Jonathan Gold, Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy at NRF. 'Importers are racing to bring in merchandise before the current tariff relief expires, aiming to avoid future price increases and ensure shelves are stocked for key sales periods.' Final figures for April show that ports processed 2.21 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), marking a 2.9% increase from March and a 9.6% rise year over year. However, May imports are projected to have declined sharply, falling to an estimated 1.91 million TEU. This would represent a 13.4% drop from April and an 8.1% decrease from May 2024—the first year-on-year drop since September last year. June and July are expected to see a modest recovery as retailers capitalise on the tariff pause. June volumes are forecast at 2.01 million TEU, still down 6.2% compared to last year, while July could reach 2.13 million TEU, down 8.1%. August is projected to record a steeper year-over-year decline of 14.7%, at 1.98 million TEU. Analysts warn that the current import surge is likely to be short-lived. Without an extension to the tariff relief, import volumes are expected to fall sharply from September onward. September TEUs are forecast at 1.78 million, down 21.8% from the same month in 2024. October is expected to see a similar decline, with 1.8 million TEU anticipated—a 19.8% year-over-year drop. Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, noted that the recent spike in import activity is being driven by temporary tariff policies rather than sustained demand. 'The tariff pause is creating a false peak,' Hackett said. 'Once it ends, we expect a pronounced drop in shipping volumes for the remainder of the year.' For the first half of 2025, total import cargo volume is projected at 12.54 million TEU, a 3.7% increase over the same period in 2024. While this figure is an improvement over earlier forecasts made before the tariff pause, it still lags behind projections made prior to the introduction of the April tariffs. The situation remains fluid as the US administration continues trade negotiations, leaving retailers and port operators uncertain about future tariff levels and their impact on supply chain stability. "US retailers speed up imports before China tariff hits" was originally created and published by Retail Insight Network, a GlobalData owned brand. The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site.
