Latest news with #HackettAssociates
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Tariffs to Push US-Bound Ocean Cargo Down 5% in 2025, NRF Says
Major U.S. ports are expected to process 5.6 percent fewer containers in 2025 due to the multi-month slowdown in inbound cargo volumes after tariffs were imposed on the country's trading partners in April. According to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, ports are now expected to handle 24.1 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) compared to the 25.5 million TEUs that passed through the gateways in 2024. More from Sourcing Journal Trump Administration Extends China Tariff Pause for 90 Days Tariff Ticker: Clock Winds Down on China-US Tariff Truce Trade Tensions Dent Lenzing's Recovery Plans In June, the ports handled 1.96 million TEUs, up 0.7 percent from the inbound nadir in May but down 8.4 percent year over year. The total came in lower than the prior projection for the month, which called for 2.06 million TEUs. That would have been up 5.9 percent from May but down 3.7 percent from the year prior. Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at NRF, remained critical of the Trump administration's tariffs, many of which officially took effect Aug. 7. A three-month tariff truce between the U.S. and China expires Tuesday. That agreement knocked down 145 percent duties on Chinese goods down to 55 percent for 90 days. 'Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves. Small businesses especially are grappling with the ability to stay in business,' Gold said. 'We need binding trade agreements that open markets by lowering tariffs, not raising them. Tariffs are taxes paid by U.S. importers that will result in higher prices for U.S. consumers, less hiring, lower business investment and a slower economy.' Preliminary throughput numbers for July indicate that the month's cargo totals also came in lower than expected. The Global Port Tracker projected that the month reached 2.3 million TEUs as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of the August tariff deadline. While the inbound total is the highest number in a year and up 17.3 percent from June, it remained down 0.5 percent from July 2024. Last month, NRF and Hackett Associates had forecast the volume to reach 2.36 million TEUs, which would have been a 2.1 percent increase over the 2.32 million TEUs last July. That would have marked the most containers entering U.S. seaports since May 2022. Despite the downgraded projections, the Port of Long Beach, which released its July monthly report on Friday, saw 7.6 percent growth in imported containers during the month with 468,081 TEUs. Including exports and empty containers, the port processed 944,232 TEUs, a 7 percent jump from the year-ago period and its most active July on record. 'Retailers are now seeing the arrival of goods that were purchased for lower costs during the temporary pause placed on tariffs and retaliatory tariffs earlier this year,' said Port of Long Beach CEO Mario Cordero in a statement. According to Cordero, the California port has higher expectations than the remaining U.S. ports, in that it still expects a flat year for volume. In the second half, the port's digital tracking tool anticipates cargo will be down 10 percent. But the pickup in goods during the pause hasn't made decision making easier for businesses across the supply chain. Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett noted that the 'on-again, off-again' tariffs were causing confusion and uncertainty for importers, exporters and consumers. 'Friends, allies and foes are all being hit by distortions in trade flows as importers try to second-guess tariff levels by pulling forward imports before the tariffs take effect,' Hackett said. 'This, in turn, will certainly lead to a downturn in trade volumes by late September because inventories for the holiday season will already be in hand. Meanwhile, U.S. exporters are being left with unsold products as counter tariffs are applied.' A slump in imports to close out the summer is expected to cut this year's early peak shipping season short. August is expected to reel in 2.2 million TEUs of inbound cargo volume, down 5 percent year over year. Those numbers are expected to fall off a cliff starting in the fall, with September cargo collapsing 19.5 percent to 1.83 million TEUs. October is forecast at 1.82 million TEUs, down 18.9 percent year over year; with November containers declining an even steeper 21.1 percent to 1.71 million TEUs. This would mark the lowest inbound cargo volume total at top U.S. ports since 1.78 million TEUs were processed in April 2023. Closing out 2025, December's volumes are expected to be 1.72 million TEU, down 19.3 percent from the year prior. The Global Port Tracker identified two reasons for the September-through-December decline. One involves pulling cargo forward during the first half of the year ahead of the tariffs, and while they were amended. Additionally, last year's three-day October strike at the East and Gulf Coast ports drove more imports, contributed to larger-than-usual percentage drops. Connectez-vous pour accéder à votre portefeuille
Yahoo
11-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Retailers: Tariff-battered import volumes to be 5.6% weaker in 2025
Import cargo volume at the nation's major container ports is projected to conclude 2025 with a 5.6% decrease compared to 2024's volume, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. 'While this forecast is still preliminary, it shows the impact the tariffs and the administration's trade policy are having on the supply chain,' said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold, in a release. 'Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves. Small businesses especially are grappling with the ability to stay in business. We need binding trade agreements that open markets by lowering tariffs, not raising them. 'Tariffs are taxes paid by U.S. importers that will result in higher prices for U.S. consumers, less hiring, lower business investment and a slower economy.' The NRF represents Walmart (NYSE: WMT), Target (NYSE: TGT) and other major retailers. The Trump administration's on-again off-again trade policy reached a milestone of sorts on Thursday when new tariffs on goods from dozens of countries went into effect amid a flurry of new trade agreements. 'The hither-and-thither approach of on-again, off-again tariffs that have little to do with trade policy is causing confusion and uncertainty for importers, exporters and consumers,' Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said in the release. 'Friends, allies and foes are all being hit by distortions in trade flows as importers try to second-guess tariff levels by pulling forward imports before the tariffs take effect. This, in turn, will certainly lead to a downturn in trade volumes by late September because inventories for the holiday season will already be in hand. Meanwhile, U.S. exporters are being left with unsold products as counter tariffs are applied.'In June, U.S. ports processed 1.96 million twenty foot equivalent units (TEUs), the Global Port Tracker found, an 0.7% increase from May but an 8.4% decrease year-over-year. Ahead of reported port volume data, the NRF projected that July surged to 2.3 million TEUs as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of this month's tariffs. That would be a 12-month high, up 17.3% from June and down just 0.5% y/ volume is forecast 5% off at 2.2 million TEUs, and September at 1.83 million TEU, 19.5% weaker y/y. Similarly, October is projected 18.9% off at 1.82 million TEUs, and 21.1% lower in November at 1.71 million TEUs. That would be the lowest monthly total since 1.78 million TEU in April 2023. December is forecast at 1.72 million TEUs, off by 19.3% y.y. The anticipated decrease in overall import volumes from September to December is primarily due to cargo being pulled forward earlier in the year because of tariffs. Additionally, the significant year-over-year percentage drops are partly attributable to elevated import levels in late 2024, driven by concerns about potential strikes at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports. Volume for the first half of the year totaled 12.53 million TEUs, better by 3.6% from 2024. Volume for the remainder of this year would bring 2025 to 24.1 million TEUs, a decrease of 5.6% from 25.5 million TEUs in 2024. Find more articles by Stuart Chirls can stop falling trans-Pacific container rates: Analyst Savannah containers post best FY since pandemic Maersk raises guidance on higher Q2 volumes Container rates unmoved by latest tariff deadline The post Retailers: Tariff-battered import volumes to be 5.6% weaker in 2025 appeared first on FreightWaves.
Fibre2Fashion
14-07-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
US port volumes dip in May; tariff uncertainty clouds outlook: NRF
Import cargo volume at the US' major container ports is expected to rebound this month after a double-digit drop in late spring but is forecast to fall again after previously paused tariffs take effect, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. 'The tariff situation remains highly fluid, and retailers are working hard to stock up for the holiday season before the various tariffs that have been announced and paused actually take effect,' said Jonathan Gold vice president for supply chain and customs policy at NRF . 'Retailers have brought in as much merchandise as possible ahead of the reciprocal tariffs taking effect, and the latest extension to August 1 is greatly appreciated.' US import cargo volume is expected to rebound in July after a sharp spring drop but may decline again due to upcoming tariffs. US ports handled 1.95 million TEU in May, down 11.8 per cent from April, as per the Global Port Tracker report. Tariff uncertainty is hindering retailer planning, especially for small businesses. Forecasts show YoY declines from Aug to Nov despite early holiday stockpiling. 'Nonetheless, uncertainty over tariffs makes it increasingly difficult for retailers to plan, especially small businesses that have no capacity to absorb tariffs. Tariffs are paid by US companies, not foreign countries or businesses, and ultimately drive-up prices for American families while impacting the availability of products,' added Gold. 'It is vital for the administration to finalise negotiations with our trading partners and provide stability and certainty for US retailers.' The report stated that US President Trump recently signed an executive order delaying 'reciprocal' tariff until August 1 but also announced tariffs of up to 50 per cent on more than a dozen countries. The President indicated that he would send out additional letters to other countries. There are also questions about what happens with tariffs on China in August even though a deal was recently concluded. 'A flurry of tariff-related announcements from the Trump administration has only served to further increase supply chain uncertainty,' said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. 'The global supply chain functions best in a trade environment that is smooth and predictable. Instead, it has been forced to contend with erratic policies and geopolitical volatility.' US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.95 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU)—one 20-foot container or its equivalent—in May, the latest month for which final data is available. That was down a sharp 11.8 per cent from April and down 6.4 per cent YoY. It was also the first YoY decline since September 2023 and the lowest volume since 1.93 million TEU in May 2024. Ports have not yet reported numbers for June, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.06 million TEU, up 5.9 per cent from May but down 3.7 per cent year over year. July is forecast at 2.36 million TEU, up 2.1 per cent year over year; August at 2.08 million TEU, down 10.4 per cent year over year, and September at 1.82 million TEU, down 19.9 per cent year over year for the lowest monthly total since 1.87 million TEU in December 2023. October is forecast at 1.81 million TEU, down 19.2 per cent year over year, and November at 1.7 million TEU, down 21.3 per cent for the lowest total since 1.78 million TEU in April 2023. While the falling aggregative totals in August through November are related to tariffs, the large YoY percentage declines are partly because imports in late 2024 were elevated due to concerns about East Coast and Gulf Coast port strikes. The current forecast would bring the first half of 2025 to 12.63 million TEU, up 4.5 per cent YoY. That's better than the 12.54 million TEU forecast last month, but still below the 12.78 million TEU forecast earlier this year before the April tariffs announcement, added the report. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Yahoo
11-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US imports recovery short-lived as tariffs bite again
US ports are set to handle increased volumes of import cargo in July following a period of decline, but the rebound is expected to be temporary, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. The report forecasts that US container ports will process 1.86 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in July, a 5.5% rise from June. However, the increase is largely attributed to a temporary delay in new import tariffs scheduled to take effect later in the year. The surge is not seen as a sign of long-term growth but rather a front-loading response by importers seeking to avoid expected cost increases. Looking ahead, August volumes are projected to reach 1.91 million TEU, down 3.4% from August 2023. September is forecast at 1.8 million TEU, a 4.4% year-on-year decline. The NRF noted that uncertainty around trade policies is causing importers to adjust shipment timing, leading to volatility in monthly cargo volumes. Despite the July rebound, overall US import cargo levels for the first half of 2025 are slightly below last year's figures. The first six months of the year recorded 10.8 million TEU, down 0.4% from the same period in 2024. Full-year 2025 imports are forecast to reach 22.3 million TEU, a modest 1.2% increase from the 22.1 million TEU logged in 2024. Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said in the report that the international shipping sector continues to face a mix of inflation-related cost pressures and unpredictable trade policy shifts, making accurate forecasting increasingly difficult. He pointed to the tariff delay as a clear driver of short-term activity that is unlikely to continue into the autumn. Retail supply chains in the United States remain responsive to shifting import patterns. Ports including Los Angeles, Long Beach, and New York-New Jersey are preparing for uneven throughput in the coming months. While the July uptick offers some temporary relief, port authorities are reportedly cautious, aware that incoming cargo levels could decline once tariffs are implemented. The NRF emphasised that while retailers are committed to maintaining stable inventories, they remain concerned about how future tariff enforcement could affect supply chain costs and consumer pricing. The Global Port Tracker report covers major US container ports and is based on data from the US Customs Bureau and port authorities. It provides forward-looking insights that are used by retailers, shipping companies, and policymakers to monitor international trade activity and plan for logistics challenges. Navigate the shifting tariff landscape with real-time data and market-leading analysis. Request a free demo for GlobalData's Strategic Intelligence . "US imports recovery short-lived as tariffs bite again" was originally created and published by Retail Insight Network, a GlobalData owned brand. The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
11-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
As Tariff Concerns Push Peak Shipping Season Earlier, US Ports Prep for Post-August Slump
Expectations of a shorter, earlier peak shipping season in 2025 appear to be coming closer to fruition as uncertainty related to President Donald Trump's tariffs persists through the summer. Inbound cargo volume into major U.S. ports is forecast to reach 2.36 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEU) in July, up 2.1 percent year over year. The total TEUs would mark the most ocean-borne imports entering the country since May 2022. More from Sourcing Journal Three-Day Monsoon Stalls Cargo Unloading at Bangladesh's Biggest Port As Tariff Hits Keep Coming, Experts Say Fashion's Burden Could Be Compounded US Ports Urge Delay on 100% China Crane Tariff Amid Supply Gaps, Soaring Costs That month saw 2.4 million TEUs going through America's top ports, according to the Global Port Tracker from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime trade consultancy Hackett Associates. A flurry is expected in the wake of President Trump's executive order on Monday, which delayed the country-specific 'reciprocal' tariffs on trade partners from going into effect until Aug. 1. When that deadline hits, duties on imports will change from their current baseline level of 10 percent, with apparel sourcing countries like Bangladesh (35 percent), Cambodia and Thailand (36 percent each) seeing substantial tariff rate increases. This is expected to push shippers into bringing in more goods into the U.S. ahead of the deadline, resulting in the three-year-high TEU total. 'The tariff situation remains highly fluid and retailers are working hard to stock up for the holiday season before the various tariffs that have been announced and paused actually take effect,' said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy, NRF. 'Retailers have brought in as much merchandise as possible ahead of the reciprocal tariffs taking effect, and the latest extension to Aug. 1 is greatly appreciated.' We already saw this play out with goods from Vietnam, which agreed to a deal with the U.S. on July 2. That trade agreement includes a 20 percent tariff on Vietnamese exports to the U.S., and a 40 percent tariff on any transshipped cargo that originated from a third country. According to container tracking platform provider Vizion, weeks 23 to 27 (June 2 to July 6) showed strong front-loading as shippers moved to beat the prior July 9 trade negotiation deadline. Across those five weeks, 270,879 TEUs were booked from Vietnam to the U.S., a 22.2 percent jump from the year prior. The Aug. 1 deadline is expected to come with a sharp downturn in inbound cargo volume, similar to what already was seen throughout various tariff announcements in April and May. At the time, 'Liberation Day' tariffs in April were briefly implemented, and tariffs on Chinese goods had at one point escalated to 145 percent—effectively putting a large swath of trans-Pacific cargo on ice. In May, American ports handled 1.95 million TEUs, an 11.8 percent decline from April and down 6.4 percent from the year prior. The month saw the first year-over-year decline since September 2023 and marks the lowest volume since 1.93 million TEUs of throughput in May 2024. With that in mind, August is supposed to see the same 11.8 percent month-over-month decline from July to 2.08 million TEUs, with a 10.4 percent contraction from last year's totals. Total inbound cargo volume is expected to sequentially fall every month from there through November, the Global Port Tracker says. September is projected to reel in 1.82 million TEUs, down 19.9 percent year over year for the lowest monthly total since 1.87 million TEUs in December 2023. October is forecast at 1.81 million TEUs, down 19.2 percent year over year, while November is expected to fall to even bigger lows. Estimates for that month are expected to plummet 21.3 percent to 1.7 million TEUs, well below the previous low of 1.78 million TEU in April 2023. The Global Port Tracker noted that the tariffs aren't the only factor that are swinging the typically peak season months on a downward pace. While the duties continue to play a role, the large year-over-year percentage declines from August through November are partly because imports in late 2024 were elevated due to concerns about East Coast and Gulf Coast port strikes. Further adding to the uncertainty of the import landscape coming months, what remains to still be seen is how the tariff landscape with China plays out. Although the U.S. and China have ironed out a framework for a trade deal that lowered punitive tariffs to 55 percent, very little detail has been revealed since the truce took place. That framework is still set to expire on Aug. 10. 'A flurry of tariff-related announcements from the Trump administration has only served to further increase supply chain uncertainty,' Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said in a statement. 'The global supply chain functions best in a trade environment that is smooth and predictable. Instead, it has been forced to contend with erratic policies and geopolitical volatility.' Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
