Tariffs to Push US-Bound Ocean Cargo Down 5% in 2025, NRF Says

Yahoo

7 days ago

Major U.S. ports are expected to process 5.6 percent fewer containers in 2025 due to the multi-month slowdown in inbound cargo volumes after tariffs were imposed on the country's trading partners in April.
According to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, ports are now expected to handle 24.1 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) compared to the 25.5 million TEUs that passed through the gateways in 2024.
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In June, the ports handled 1.96 million TEUs, up 0.7 percent from the inbound nadir in May but down 8.4 percent year over year.
The total came in lower than the prior projection for the month, which called for 2.06 million TEUs. That would have been up 5.9 percent from May but down 3.7 percent from the year prior.
Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at NRF, remained critical of the Trump administration's tariffs, many of which officially took effect Aug. 7.
A three-month tariff truce between the U.S. and China expires Tuesday. That agreement knocked down 145 percent duties on Chinese goods down to 55 percent for 90 days.
'Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves. Small businesses especially are grappling with the ability to stay in business,' Gold said. 'We need binding trade agreements that open markets by lowering tariffs, not raising them. Tariffs are taxes paid by U.S. importers that will result in higher prices for U.S. consumers, less hiring, lower business investment and a slower economy.'
Preliminary throughput numbers for July indicate that the month's cargo totals also came in lower than expected. The Global Port Tracker projected that the month reached 2.3 million TEUs as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of the August tariff deadline.
While the inbound total is the highest number in a year and up 17.3 percent from June, it remained down 0.5 percent from July 2024. Last month, NRF and Hackett Associates had forecast the volume to reach 2.36 million TEUs, which would have been a 2.1 percent increase over the 2.32 million TEUs last July. That would have marked the most containers entering U.S. seaports since May 2022.
Despite the downgraded projections, the Port of Long Beach, which released its July monthly report on Friday, saw 7.6 percent growth in imported containers during the month with 468,081 TEUs. Including exports and empty containers, the port processed 944,232 TEUs, a 7 percent jump from the year-ago period and its most active July on record.
'Retailers are now seeing the arrival of goods that were purchased for lower costs during the temporary pause placed on tariffs and retaliatory tariffs earlier this year,' said Port of Long Beach CEO Mario Cordero in a statement.
According to Cordero, the California port has higher expectations than the remaining U.S. ports, in that it still expects a flat year for volume. In the second half, the port's digital tracking tool anticipates cargo will be down 10 percent.
But the pickup in goods during the pause hasn't made decision making easier for businesses across the supply chain. Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett noted that the 'on-again, off-again' tariffs were causing confusion and uncertainty for importers, exporters and consumers.
'Friends, allies and foes are all being hit by distortions in trade flows as importers try to second-guess tariff levels by pulling forward imports before the tariffs take effect,' Hackett said. 'This, in turn, will certainly lead to a downturn in trade volumes by late September because inventories for the holiday season will already be in hand. Meanwhile, U.S. exporters are being left with unsold products as counter tariffs are applied.'
A slump in imports to close out the summer is expected to cut this year's early peak shipping season short. August is expected to reel in 2.2 million TEUs of inbound cargo volume, down 5 percent year over year.
Those numbers are expected to fall off a cliff starting in the fall, with September cargo collapsing 19.5 percent to 1.83 million TEUs.
October is forecast at 1.82 million TEUs, down 18.9 percent year over year; with November containers declining an even steeper 21.1 percent to 1.71 million TEUs. This would mark the lowest inbound cargo volume total at top U.S. ports since 1.78 million TEUs were processed in April 2023. Closing out 2025, December's volumes are expected to be 1.72 million TEU, down 19.3 percent from the year prior.
The Global Port Tracker identified two reasons for the September-through-December decline. One involves pulling cargo forward during the first half of the year ahead of the tariffs, and while they were amended. Additionally, last year's three-day October strike at the East and Gulf Coast ports drove more imports, contributed to larger-than-usual percentage drops.
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