Latest news with #GlobalPortTracker
Yahoo
7 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Tariffs to Push US-Bound Ocean Cargo Down 5% in 2025, NRF Says
Major U.S. ports are expected to process 5.6 percent fewer containers in 2025 due to the multi-month slowdown in inbound cargo volumes after tariffs were imposed on the country's trading partners in April. According to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, ports are now expected to handle 24.1 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) compared to the 25.5 million TEUs that passed through the gateways in 2024. More from Sourcing Journal Trump Administration Extends China Tariff Pause for 90 Days Tariff Ticker: Clock Winds Down on China-US Tariff Truce Trade Tensions Dent Lenzing's Recovery Plans In June, the ports handled 1.96 million TEUs, up 0.7 percent from the inbound nadir in May but down 8.4 percent year over year. The total came in lower than the prior projection for the month, which called for 2.06 million TEUs. That would have been up 5.9 percent from May but down 3.7 percent from the year prior. Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at NRF, remained critical of the Trump administration's tariffs, many of which officially took effect Aug. 7. A three-month tariff truce between the U.S. and China expires Tuesday. That agreement knocked down 145 percent duties on Chinese goods down to 55 percent for 90 days. 'Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves. Small businesses especially are grappling with the ability to stay in business,' Gold said. 'We need binding trade agreements that open markets by lowering tariffs, not raising them. Tariffs are taxes paid by U.S. importers that will result in higher prices for U.S. consumers, less hiring, lower business investment and a slower economy.' Preliminary throughput numbers for July indicate that the month's cargo totals also came in lower than expected. The Global Port Tracker projected that the month reached 2.3 million TEUs as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of the August tariff deadline. While the inbound total is the highest number in a year and up 17.3 percent from June, it remained down 0.5 percent from July 2024. Last month, NRF and Hackett Associates had forecast the volume to reach 2.36 million TEUs, which would have been a 2.1 percent increase over the 2.32 million TEUs last July. That would have marked the most containers entering U.S. seaports since May 2022. Despite the downgraded projections, the Port of Long Beach, which released its July monthly report on Friday, saw 7.6 percent growth in imported containers during the month with 468,081 TEUs. Including exports and empty containers, the port processed 944,232 TEUs, a 7 percent jump from the year-ago period and its most active July on record. 'Retailers are now seeing the arrival of goods that were purchased for lower costs during the temporary pause placed on tariffs and retaliatory tariffs earlier this year,' said Port of Long Beach CEO Mario Cordero in a statement. According to Cordero, the California port has higher expectations than the remaining U.S. ports, in that it still expects a flat year for volume. In the second half, the port's digital tracking tool anticipates cargo will be down 10 percent. But the pickup in goods during the pause hasn't made decision making easier for businesses across the supply chain. Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett noted that the 'on-again, off-again' tariffs were causing confusion and uncertainty for importers, exporters and consumers. 'Friends, allies and foes are all being hit by distortions in trade flows as importers try to second-guess tariff levels by pulling forward imports before the tariffs take effect,' Hackett said. 'This, in turn, will certainly lead to a downturn in trade volumes by late September because inventories for the holiday season will already be in hand. Meanwhile, U.S. exporters are being left with unsold products as counter tariffs are applied.' A slump in imports to close out the summer is expected to cut this year's early peak shipping season short. August is expected to reel in 2.2 million TEUs of inbound cargo volume, down 5 percent year over year. Those numbers are expected to fall off a cliff starting in the fall, with September cargo collapsing 19.5 percent to 1.83 million TEUs. October is forecast at 1.82 million TEUs, down 18.9 percent year over year; with November containers declining an even steeper 21.1 percent to 1.71 million TEUs. This would mark the lowest inbound cargo volume total at top U.S. ports since 1.78 million TEUs were processed in April 2023. Closing out 2025, December's volumes are expected to be 1.72 million TEU, down 19.3 percent from the year prior. The Global Port Tracker identified two reasons for the September-through-December decline. One involves pulling cargo forward during the first half of the year ahead of the tariffs, and while they were amended. Additionally, last year's three-day October strike at the East and Gulf Coast ports drove more imports, contributed to larger-than-usual percentage drops. Connectez-vous pour accéder à votre portefeuille
Yahoo
11-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
China's Exports Surge as Global Trump Tariffs Take Effect
Four months after President Donald Trump declared the United States 'liberated' from pervasive global trade imbalances by a new tariff regime, a revamped set of duties on the country's most prominent trade partners has gone into effect. Thursday saw dozens of nations integral to the fashion supply chain hit with steep, double-digit duties. The European Union's 27 member countries now face 15-percent tariffs on U.S.-bound exports, while Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Pakistan were all hit with 19-percent tariffs and Bangladesh and Vietnam saw their duty rates set at 20 percent. More from Sourcing Journal Tariffs Could Deliver 'Crippling Blow' to India's Fashion Producers US Ambassador Calls Panama Ports Owner 'A Bad Operator' as Cosco Rumors Ramp Up Maersk Lifts 2025 Outlook as Global Container Market Defies Tariff Turbulence Earlier this week, the president threatened to elevate tariffs on India, already set at 25 percent, to 50 percent due to the country's continued purchase of Russian oil. He slapped Brazil with an analogous sky-high rate for pursuing criminal charges against its former president, a Trump ally. But one key U.S. trading partner—and the historic object of Trump's most fervent ire—faces a separate deadline. The three-month bilateral tariff truce between the U.S. and China expires Tuesday, and state officials on both sides have been fervently negotiating with the aim of brokering a deal before the 55-percent tariffs on Chinese shipments kick in. Whether the pause is extended (as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Thursday is likely) or another resolution is reached, importers have been clamoring to ensure that their China-originating goods are loaded onto vessels bound for U.S. shores before the pause is due to expire. Chinese exports grew 7.2 percent year over year to $321.8 billion in July in a sign of strength for the market as shippers rush product out of the country ahead of the looming negotiating deadline. The country's outbound shipments heavily outperformed the 5.4-percent jump calculated by a Reuters poll of economists, and represented an acceleration over export totals in May (4.8 percent) and June (5.8 percent). The ongoing trade war between the trans-Pacific powerhouses has resulted in a collapse in goods sent directly from China to the U.S., with exports falling 21.7 percent in July, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. But July figures from the National Retail Federation's Global Port Tracker still indicate some semblance of a pull-forward, with major U.S. ports expecting to pull in 2.1 percent more 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) than the year prior—the most containers entering the country since May 2022. American companies that are still importing cargo from China via ocean or air are likely looking to get out in front of a potential increase in price—again. Both the U.S. and China engaged in talks in Stockholm to prevent tariffs from returning to the elevated levels they reached in April and May. The U.S. had hit Chinese goods with tariffs as high as 145 percent, with China retaliating with an 85 percent duty before the countries agreed in May to mutually reduce their tariffs for 90 days. When including a 20 percent punitive duty for fentanyl trafficking, U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports currently stand at 55 percent. The deadline for the countries to negotiate a new trade deal is Aug. 12. If a deal is not made, the tariffs before the May truce would go back into effect, though administration officials have been hinting that an extension of the deal is imminent. Though the tenuous nature of the relationship has knocked down export numbers to the U.S., China has been able to more than make up for the gap elsewhere. The country's shipments to the 10 countries comprising the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) increased 16.7 percent year over year. This includes markets like Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. China has increasingly relied on third countries such as those in ASEAN to circumvent tariff barriers and for the manufacturing of final products or components. The White House has explicitly targeted Vietnam and Thailand as countries that are participating in this transshipment process, with the U.S. hitting the former with a 40 percent tariff for goods transshipped into the U.S. from China. Outbound shipments to the European Union increased by 9.2 percent in July, while exports to Latin America ticked up 7.7 percent. Africa had the largest increase in shipments on the receiving end at 42.4 percent. Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said in a second-quarter earnings call that the strength of Chinese exports to the rest of the non-U.S. world will dictate the wider growth of the container market. 'On the back of the industrial successes that they're having and the overcapacity that there is in China, this could actually carry stronger market growth than anticipated for a few years,' said Clerc. China's imports, meanwhile, rose by 4.1 percent year over year last month to $22.3 billion, representing the sharpest gain since July 2024. The numbers defied expectations of a 1 percent decline in the month, and build on a 1.1 percent gain in June. The strong import month points to improved domestic demand as Beijing has placed a stronger focus on stimulating consumer spending. As the reality of the tariff landscape settled in on Thursday, experts weighed in about the potential impacts to shoppers and brands in the U.S. In an interview with CNBC, J.P. Morgan global market strategist Meera Pandit said, 'In aggregate, we're expecting that around 60 percent of the overall cost of tariffs gets passed on to the consumer.' Brands and retailers will face about 40 percent of the tariff burden, she estimated, 'but certainly it will be carrying the load on both sides, and have an economic impact when we think about the consumer and also profitability.' Earlier this week, J.P. Morgan released reporting saying that 'inflation questions are heating up.' Thus far, much of the cost of tariffs has been absorbed throughout the supply chain, with about 40 percent reaching consumers (much lower than the price hikes seen during Trump's first term when he levied Section 301 duties on China). However, that's expected to change. 'Part of that has been thanks to inventories built up by front-loading, but that cushion can only go so far,' analysts wrote. 'We are starting to see goods inflation climbing again, with the potential to push overall inflation above 3 percent by year-end,' the report said. Meanwhile, Ralph Lauren held its quarterly earnings call, with CEO Patrice Louvet saying that while consumer trends remained consistent with previous quarters, the company is taking a 'more cautious' view of the second half of the year. 'The big unknown sitting here today is the price sensitivity and how the consumer reacts to the broader pricing environment and how sensitive that consumer is,' he added. The heritage New York brand this spring said it planned to hike up pricese in the fall as a means of offsetting the duty impacts. The company's stock price took a 7-percent hit on Thursday. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Fibre2Fashion
14-07-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
US port volumes dip in May; tariff uncertainty clouds outlook: NRF
Import cargo volume at the US' major container ports is expected to rebound this month after a double-digit drop in late spring but is forecast to fall again after previously paused tariffs take effect, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. 'The tariff situation remains highly fluid, and retailers are working hard to stock up for the holiday season before the various tariffs that have been announced and paused actually take effect,' said Jonathan Gold vice president for supply chain and customs policy at NRF . 'Retailers have brought in as much merchandise as possible ahead of the reciprocal tariffs taking effect, and the latest extension to August 1 is greatly appreciated.' US import cargo volume is expected to rebound in July after a sharp spring drop but may decline again due to upcoming tariffs. US ports handled 1.95 million TEU in May, down 11.8 per cent from April, as per the Global Port Tracker report. Tariff uncertainty is hindering retailer planning, especially for small businesses. Forecasts show YoY declines from Aug to Nov despite early holiday stockpiling. 'Nonetheless, uncertainty over tariffs makes it increasingly difficult for retailers to plan, especially small businesses that have no capacity to absorb tariffs. Tariffs are paid by US companies, not foreign countries or businesses, and ultimately drive-up prices for American families while impacting the availability of products,' added Gold. 'It is vital for the administration to finalise negotiations with our trading partners and provide stability and certainty for US retailers.' The report stated that US President Trump recently signed an executive order delaying 'reciprocal' tariff until August 1 but also announced tariffs of up to 50 per cent on more than a dozen countries. The President indicated that he would send out additional letters to other countries. There are also questions about what happens with tariffs on China in August even though a deal was recently concluded. 'A flurry of tariff-related announcements from the Trump administration has only served to further increase supply chain uncertainty,' said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. 'The global supply chain functions best in a trade environment that is smooth and predictable. Instead, it has been forced to contend with erratic policies and geopolitical volatility.' US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.95 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU)—one 20-foot container or its equivalent—in May, the latest month for which final data is available. That was down a sharp 11.8 per cent from April and down 6.4 per cent YoY. It was also the first YoY decline since September 2023 and the lowest volume since 1.93 million TEU in May 2024. Ports have not yet reported numbers for June, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.06 million TEU, up 5.9 per cent from May but down 3.7 per cent year over year. July is forecast at 2.36 million TEU, up 2.1 per cent year over year; August at 2.08 million TEU, down 10.4 per cent year over year, and September at 1.82 million TEU, down 19.9 per cent year over year for the lowest monthly total since 1.87 million TEU in December 2023. October is forecast at 1.81 million TEU, down 19.2 per cent year over year, and November at 1.7 million TEU, down 21.3 per cent for the lowest total since 1.78 million TEU in April 2023. While the falling aggregative totals in August through November are related to tariffs, the large YoY percentage declines are partly because imports in late 2024 were elevated due to concerns about East Coast and Gulf Coast port strikes. The current forecast would bring the first half of 2025 to 12.63 million TEU, up 4.5 per cent YoY. That's better than the 12.54 million TEU forecast last month, but still below the 12.78 million TEU forecast earlier this year before the April tariffs announcement, added the report. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Yahoo
11-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US Imports Set for Summer Spike as Retailers Race Tariff Clock
Import cargo at top U.S. ports is expected to see a surge this summer as retailers take advantage of last month's 90-day rollback in tariffs imposed on China, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. A down May—when mass tariff-driven booking cancellations led to a decline in trans-Pacific sailings—is expected to be followed up by a stronger-than-expected summer season as more brands rush to bring goods into the U.S. ahead of tariff deadlines in July and August. More from Sourcing Journal China and US Return to Terms of May Trade Truce Tariff Fallout Hits LA Port: Cargo Decline Leaves Half of Dockworkers Idle Hapag-Lloyd Bookings Double on China-US Route in Weeks After Tariff Truce Ports have not yet reported official numbers for May, but the Global Port Tracker projected an 8.1 percent year-over-year dip to 1.91 million 20-foot-equivalent units (TEUs). This prediction is ahead of the 1.81 million TEUs the tracker had called for last month, which would have marked a 12.9 percent decrease. May's projected decline would be the first year-over-year drop since September 2023 and the lowest inbound cargo volume since 1.87 million TEUs entered the ports in December 2023. June is forecast at 2.01 million TEUs down 6.2 percent year over year. The forecast is a significant improvement from the previous projection of 1.71 million TEUs, which would have been the lowest volume since March 2023 and represent a 20.2 percent drop year over year. 'This is the busiest time of the year for retailers as they enter the back-to-school season and prepare for the fall-winter holiday season,' said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy, NRF, in a statement. 'Retailers had paused their purchases and imports previously because of the significantly high tariffs. They are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August.' As part of the tariff relief, the Trump administration pared back what had escalated to a 145 percent import duty on Chinese goods down to 30 percent. That relief has been the main catalyst for expected influx of cargo and ensuing shift in predictions. The current forecast would bring the first half of 2025 to 12.54 million TEUs, up 3.7 percent year over year. That's better than the 12.13 million-TEU forecast last month before the tariff pause was unveiled, but still below the 12.78 million TEU, up 5.7 percent year over year, forecast before President Donald Trump's April 2 'Liberation Day' tariffs announcement. In July, the inbound cargo total is expected to be 2.13 million TEUs, down 8.1 percent from the year prior. Previously, import volumes had a projected 23.4 percent year-over-year drop to 1.77 million TEUs. And for August, the traditional start of the peak shipping season, will bring in 1.98 million TEUs, a 14.7 percent decrease from last year. The prior numbers calculated 1.82 million TEUs entering major American ports, a 21.5 percent decline. 'Retailers want to ensure consumers will be able to find the products they need and want at prices they can afford. Unfortunately, there is still considerable uncertainty as to what will happen after the pauses end,' said Gold. 'We strongly encourage the administration to continue negotiating agreements with our trading partners in order to restore predictability and stability to the supply chain.' The higher projections come as more capacity continues to come online on the trans-Pacific trade lane. A recent report from maritime trade advisory service Sea-Intelligence indicates container shipping lines are planning to offer approximately 18 percent more year-over-year capacity on the Asia-to-North American West Coast trade lane in June and July—furthering speculation that ports in Los Angeles and Long Beach could see record traffic in the summer months. 'The peak for the winter holidays will come early this year, making it simultaneous with the peak for the back-to-school season,' said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. 'If higher tariffs are not delayed again, we can expect the final four months of the year to see declining volumes of imports.' September's estimate remains in line with last month's expectation, with at 1.78 million TEUs, a 21.8 percent year-over-year contraction. The first projection for October calls for 1.8 million TEUs, down 19.8 percent. According to the Global Port Tracker, sharp declines for 2025's closing months are still expected partly due to elevated imports in late 2024, when there were rampant concerns about both the tariffs and the East Coast and Gulf Coast port strikes. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Fibre2Fashion
10-06-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
US import cargo to surge amid temporary tariff relief on Chinese goods
Import cargo volumes at major US container ports are set to rise this summer following a temporary pause and reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. Retailers, who had halted orders after the April announcement of a 145 per cent tariff, resumed imports after the rate was reduced to 30 per cent and a 90-day pause was introduced, lasting until August 12. US import cargo volumes are expected to rise this summer as retailers rush to bring in goods during a 90-day pause and tariff reduction on Chinese imports, ending in August. April imports rose 9.6 per cent year on year but May saw a sharp drop. Volumes are forecast to rebound Juneâ€'August, ahead of a possible decline later in 2025 if tariffs resume, according to Global Port Tracker. 'This is the busiest time of the year for retailers as they enter the back-to-school season and prepare for the fall-winter holiday season. Retailers had paused their purchases and imports previously because of the significantly high tariffs. They are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August. Retailers want to ensure consumers will be able to find the products they need and want at prices they can afford. Unfortunately, there is still considerable uncertainty as to what will happen after the pauses end,' NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said in a press release. US ports handled 2.21 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in April, up 2.9 per cent from March and 9.6 per cent year on year. However, volumes are expected to have dropped in May to 1.91 million TEU, down 13.4 per cent month on month and 8.1 per cent year on year, marking the first annual decline since September 2023. Despite the slowdown, imports are projected to rebound from June through August, though remaining below 2024 levels. June is forecast at 2.01 million TEU (down 6.2 per cent YoY), July at 2.13 million TEU (down 8.1 per cent), and August at 1.98 million TEU (down 14.7 per cent). A sharper drop is expected later in the year due to strong comparisons against high 2024 volumes driven by port strike concerns. 'Our projections show that May saw a significant reduction in imports as shippers responded to the higher tariff environment,' Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. 'However, tariff reductions will lead to a surge in imports in June through August as importers take advantage of the various 90-day pauses. The peak for the winter holidays will come early this year, making it simultaneous with the peak for the back-to-school season. If higher tariffs are not delayed again, we can expect the final four months of the year to see declining volumes of imports.' The first half of 2025 is now forecast at 12.54 million TEU, up 3.7 per cent year on year—an improvement from earlier estimates but still trailing pre-tariff projections. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KD)
