Iran and Turkey increasingly involved in Gaza negotiations as Egypt takes a step back

The National

a day ago

Iran and Turkey have become increasingly involved behind the scenes in negotiations to reach a ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, sources familiar with the talks have told The National.
Mediators from the US, Egypt and Qatar have been trying without success to broker a ceasefire since the last one collapsed in March. Neither Israel nor Hamas are making the compromises needed to pause or end the war − now in its 21st month − despite mounting international pressure over the rising civilian death toll and worsening humanitarian crisis.
US President Donald Trump publicly acknowledged this week that Iran was playing a role in the talks. ' Gaza, right now, is in the midst of a massive negotiation between us and Hamas and Israel, and Iran actually is involved,' he said.
Although his comment appeared to suggest that Iran's involvement was a new development, Tehran has in fact been indirectly involved in the process since the negotiations began soon after the start of the war in October 2023, according to the sources.
As Hamas's chief foreign backer, Iran has offered behind-the-scenes counsel to negotiators from the Palestinian militant group and separately engaged in talks with Qatari and Egyptian mediators, they said.
However, they noted Iran's involvement was currently at a higher-than-usual level, possibly as a result of talks that Tehran and Washington have been holding on Iran's nuclear programme.
Mr Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, leads the US negotiating teams on both Gaza and Iran's nuclear programme.
'Iran has been present in the Gaza talks from day one,' said one of the sources. 'But its profile has grown in recent weeks. The nuclear talks between the Iranians and the Americans appear to have given both sides a chance to discuss Gaza as well.'
The sources said that Turkey's role in the Gaza talks, while of a somewhat lower calibre than Iran's, has gained weight after its Islamist allies in Syria toppled Bashar Al Assad's regime in December and quickly established a rapport with the West − including the US − as the country emerges from 14 years of devastating civil war.
Turkey, a close US ally and Nato's only Muslim member, maintains close ties with Hamas and is home to several of its senior officials as well as vast investments by the group. Moreover, Turkey, along with Algeria, are the most likely destinations for Hamas leaders that Israel wants to send into exile from Gaza.
'Turkey has shown itself to the United States as a capable regional player with the kind of weight that can influence or contribute to the handling of trouble spots like Gaza and Syria,' said one of the sources.
Egypt, in contrast, has seen its role in the Gaza negotiations partially diminished, but not necessarily because of the increased relevance of Turkey and Iran, with whom Cairo has recently been forging close ties.
The Trump administration's use of an American-Palestinian – Bishara Bahbah – as its main go-between with Hamas negotiators has partially eroded the role played by Egypt, which neighbours both Israel and Gaza, according to the sources.
Even before Mr Bahbah emerged on the scene in March, US negotiators ignored Washington's designation of Hamas as a terrorist group to hold at least one round of direct talks with its leaders in Qatar.
The sources said Egypt's reduced role could also be attributed to Cairo's tense relations with Washington over Mr Trump's proposal in January to resettle Gaza's population in other countries − mainly in Egypt and Jordan.
Egypt rejected the proposal, saying it would not be party to another injustice to the Palestinians and warning it would not allow a mass movement of Palestinians into its territory.
President Abdel Fattah El Sisi postponed indefinitely a White House visit in February, according to sources at the time, and Mr Trump did not include Egypt − a close US ally of 50 years − in his visit to the region in May.
'Egypt sees its regional role to be driven by its size, history and past leadership as well as its institutional capacity,' said Michael Hanna, a New York-based Middle East expert at the International Crisis Group think tank.
'Its relevance at present is dictated by its geography; sharing borders with trouble spots in Gaza, Libya and Sudan. But it definitely no longer has the reach farther afield,' Mr Hanna said.
He said recent US moves on the Gaza file, like the use of Mr Bahbah and direct talks with Hamas, may have also made Cairo feel left out.
Egypt had brokered truces that ended previous wars between Israel and Hamas, most recently in 2021. Its relations with Hamas have improved greatly since the 2010s, when Cairo accused the group of meddling in its affairs and supporting insurgents in the Sinai Peninsula.
In contrast, Egypt's relations with Israel have soured since the Israel-Gaza war began and are now at their lowest point since they signed a US-sponsored peace treaty in 1979. Israeli right-wing news outlets frequently claim that Cairo is preparing for war against the country.
Adding to Egypt's woes is that the fallout from the war in Gaza has harmed its own national security, notably the capture by Israel in May last year of the Palestinian side of the Rafah crossing in northern Sinai along with a narrow strip that runs the length of the Gaza-Egypt border.
Israel maintains it captured the area to stop Hamas from receiving arms and other supplies through underground tunnels linking Egypt and Gaza. Egypt says it destroyed the tunnels nearly a decade ago.
Attacks by Yemen's Houthis against Red Sea shipping since the start of the Gaza war have also hit hard traffic in Egypt's Suez Canal, denying Cairo billions of dollars in transit fees and deepening its economic crisis. The Houthis say the attacks are in solidarity with the Palestinians.
Generally, said Mr Hanna, Egypt's regional weight has been somewhat devalued by its perennial economic woes. 'Egypt is often supplicant and that's not the posture of a country that can exert regional influence,' he added.
Ammar Ali Hassan, a prominent Egyptian author and sociologist, said he partly disagreed with this analysis.
'Today's Egypt may have seen its regional role diminish despite its military capabilities,' he said. 'The absence of a clear political vision and will, as well as growing poverty, may have made safeguarding the country, rather than actively projecting regional influence − a priority given the turmoil surrounding Egypt.'