Can Investing $10,000 in Quantum Computing (QUBT) Stock Turn Into $1 Million by 2035?

Globe and Mail

3 hours ago

Quantum Computing (NASDAQ: QUBT) is an up-and-coming pioneer in the red-hot field of quantum computing. Could investing $10,000 in this stock turn into $1 million by 2035? It's possible, but the odds are stacked against it.
That said, I think there is a viable path for Quantum Computing to make you a millionaire over the next 10 years. Here's what would be required.
What would it take for Quantum Computing stock to turn $10,000 into $1 million by 2035?
Quantum Computing's market cap currently hovers around $2.66 billion. Its share price was $18.88 at the market close on June 20, 2025. An investment of $10,000 would buy 529 shares at that price, with $12.48 left over.
The company's share price would need to grow 100x to $1,888 for a $10,000 initial investment (assuming you didn't buy any fractional shares) to be worth $1 million in a decade. That reflects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 58.49%.
Quantum Computing has certainly demonstrated that it can deliver a much greater annual return than that over the short term. Over the last 12 months, the stock has skyrocketed by more than 3,000%.
Sustaining a CAGR of 58.49% over 10 years is a daunting task, but it's not impossible. For example, a $10,000 investment in Nvidia in 2015 would be worth over $2.6 million today. Of course, you would have had to resist the temptation to sell during the GPU stock's huge swings up and down during that period.
How could it happen?
Now for a more difficult question: How could Quantum Computing stock achieve a CAGR of 58.49% over the next 10 years? To answer this question, we need to understand the company's business.
Quantum Computing uses integrated photonics (computing with particles of light) and nonlinear quantum optics to develop quantum computers. The company believes its approach to quantum computing is superior to rivals' methods that use superconducting, trapped-ion, and annealing architectures. Photons' advantages include lower energy consumption, faster processing, and scalability.
The photonic integrated circuit market size in 2024 was around $15 billion. Over the next five years, this market is projected to expand by a CAGR of 20.5% to $38.4 billion. While that is an impressive growth rate, it isn't enough to propel Quantum Computing stock 100x higher.
But Quantum Computing could grow significantly faster than the overall photonic integrated circuit market. The company's thin film lithium niobate wafers, which it believes will be "the silicon of the future," could make it possible.
Also, the photonic integrated circuit market's growth could accelerate beyond 2029. I could envision this occurring if the adoption of the technology in areas such as artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous vehicles, and high-performance computing takes off in a huge way.
Evaluating the odds
It's quite possible that investing $10,000 in Quantum Computing stock could make you a millionaire over the next 10 years. But how probable is this scenario? The odds aren't great.
For one thing, Quantum Computing's photonics technology might be surpassed by approaches that prove to be even better. Many of the companies investing heavily in developing quantum computers have deep pockets, including Google parent Alphabet, Amazon, IBM, Microsoft, and Nvidia. Other rising stars in the quantum computing industry, such as IonQ, D-Wave Quantum, and Rigetti Computing, could potentially be bigger winners than Quantum Computing.
Perhaps progress in advancing quantum computing technology won't be fast enough to support the market growth required for Quantum Computing to be a millionaire-maker. I suspect that won't be the case, but I wouldn't rule it out.
The good news for investors, though, is that Quantum Computing doesn't have to turn an initial $10,000 into $1 million by 2035 to still deliver exceptional returns.
Should you invest $1,000 in Quantum Computing right now?
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Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Keith Speights has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, International Business Machines, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.