March Madness: North Carolina vs. San Diego State odds, picks and predictions

USA Today

18-03-2025

The North Carolina Tar Heels (22-13) and the San Diego State Aztecs (21-9) meet Tuesday at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio, in a NCAA Tournament First Four play-in game. Tip-off is scheduled for approximately 9:10 p.m ET (truTV). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the North Carolina vs. San Diego State odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
No. 11 seed North Carolina was the last team to make the field of 68, and it just so happens athletic director Bubba Cunningham is on the selection committee, and with the Tar Heels making the field, he receives a six-figure bonus from the university.
To be fair, though, while UNC was a dismal 1-12 in Quad 1 games, they were 8-0 in Q2 games, including wins over the Dayton Flyers and SMU Mustangs, 2 other teams which were considered on the bubble. And, the Tar Heels had a nice win over the UCLA Bruins, while posting a NET ranking of 36th, while checking in 33rd in the KenPom rankings. So, while the selection of UNC looked a little shady, especially if you're a fan from Dallas, Dayton or, definitely, Morgantown, W. Va., the Tar Heels had some impressive metrics.
UNC came within a whisker of potentially taking Duke to overtime in the ACC Tournament semifinals, but a lane violation by F Jae-Lyn Withers with 4.1 seconds left in regulation took a point off the board by UNC. That point would have tied the game at 72. Duke ended up eking out a 74-71 win.
The Tar Heels will face the fellow No. 11 seed Aztecs, a national runner-up 2 seasons ago. G Nick Boyd, who transferred from the FAU Owls, stars for San Diego State. He went to the Final Four, losing to San Diego State with the Owls in April 2023.
San Diego State was 3-6 in Q1 games, recording wins over the No. 1 seed Houston Cougars on a neutral floor, while also recording wins over NCAA Tournament teams the Colorado State Rams, Creighton Bluejays and UC San Diego Tritons.
– Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Men's Basketball Coaches Poll
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North Carolina vs. San Diego State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:02 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML) : North Carolina -210 (bet $210 to win $100) | San Diego State +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
: North Carolina -210 (bet $210 to win $100) | San Diego State +170 (bet $100 to win $170) Against the spread (ATS) : North Carolina -4.5 (-115) | San Diego State +4.5 (-105)
: North Carolina -4.5 (-115) | San Diego State +4.5 (-105) Over/Under (O/U): 142.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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North Carolina vs. San Diego State picks and predictions
Prediction
San Diego State 73, North Carolina 69
SAN DIEGO STATE (+170) is about to give fuel to a bunch of the haters who are full-throat on social media about North Carolina (-210) not belonging in this tournament.
The Aztecs lost to the Boise State Broncos in the Mountain West Tournament, but this is not the kind of time you want to see where you're trying to quiet the critics. San Diego State plays tremendous defense, allowing just 63.6 points oer game (PPG) to rank 14th in the nation, while limiting teams to 37.8% from the field, which was good for No. 2 in the country. The Aztecs hold teams to 30.2% from downtown, too, which was 21st in the country.
North Carolina is going to struggle to spread the floor, and it will likely get frustrated by San Diego State's traps and half-court defense. Will it be as bad as the Virginia Cavaliers' loss in the First Four last season, and another black eye for the ACC? It's possible.
SAN DIEGO STATE +4.5 (-105) is a good play if you're a little more on the conservative side, and you would like a little more room for error.
The Aztecs were 3-2 ATS on a neutral floor this season, while scoring wins over No. 1 seed Houston and No. 9 Creighton.
North Carolina -4.5 (-115) had some near misses, but it was unable to get those signature wins, which is why it has been a lightning rod for critics and boisterous fans on social media.
UNDER 142.5 (-110) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most, and hold your breath. It's going to be tight.
San Diego State cashed low when it was bounced by Boise State in the MWC tourney, and the Under is 3-2 in 5 neutral floor games this season.
UNC cashed low in all 3 games in the ACC Tournament, and the Under is 4-0 in the past 4 games since March 8. The Under is 5-2 in the past 7 games on a neutral floor, too.
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