Highs And Lows Possible For Women Governors In The Next Two Years

Forbes

5 hours ago

ELIZABETH, NJ - MAY 24 - Democratic candidate for Governor Rep. Mikie Sherrill attends a Latinos for ... More Mikie event at the Rancho Mateo restaurant. (Aristide Economopoulos For The Washington Post via Getty Images)
Three of four gubernatorial nominees in 2025 are women. Current U.S. Representative Mikie Sherrill secured the Democratic nomination for New Jersey Governor last week and former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger (D) and current Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears (R) cleared their fields ahead of today's Virginia state primary contests. If Sherrill is successful in November, the number of women governors could match the record high of 14, set for the first time for a brief period in January 2025. But maintaining that level of representation—still far short of parity with men—might prove difficult as half of the current women governors will be leaving office by 2027.
Women's political representation is especially stark at the gubernatorial level. According to the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University, 51 women have served as governors in 32 states; 18 states have never been led by a woman. And women's gubernatorial representation has never exceeded 28%. The number of women governors serving simultaneously jumped from nine to 12 as a result of the 2022 elections, when the number of women candidates and nominees for governor reached record highs. In 2024, when just 11 states held gubernatorial elections, former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) was the only woman winner. The 2025 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia could double that number and mark multiple milestones.
Apart from matching a record number of women governors nationwide, the 2025 contests will yield the first woman governor of Virginia. Earle-Sears could also become the nation's first Black women governor. In 2011, Susana Martinez (R-NM) became the first Latina and Nikki Haley (R-SC) became the first South Asian woman governor in the U.S. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM) became the first Latina Democrat and just the third woman of color to serve as governor in 2019. To date, no Black, Native, or Middle Eastern/North African woman has held gubernatorial office.
Women's gubernatorial representation matters beyond the numbers. The presence of women in states' top executive office has both symbolic and substantive implications. Scholars Christina Ladam, Jeffrey Hardin, and Jason Windett find, for example, that the presence of high-profile women officeholders—including women governors—positively affects the numbers of women running for the legislature in that state. Other researchers have found that women governors, more than their male counterparts, are associated with drops in CO2 emissions, greater attention to social welfare policies, and swifter and more aggressive reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic. The broader literature on women officeholders' impact demonstrates how the distinct and diverse lived experiences of women contribute to the difference they can make when in positions of political power.
Women governors are also especially poised to be considered as presidential contenders. Of the 45 men who have served as president, 17 previously served as state governors. More than 20 U.S. governors (former and current) were major-party candidates in the past three presidential elections. Among them is just one woman—former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who sought the 2024 Republican nomination. Increasing the number of women state executives creates a fuller pathway to a woman president. Serving as a state's top executive provides potential women presidential contenders with executive skills and experience, statewide and national recognition, and substantive leadership records that can match voter expectations for the country's commander in chief.
Seeing these benefits of women's gubernatorial representation is more difficult when the number of women governors drops, which is possible as a result of election 2026. Five of 12 current women governors are term-limited in 2026, and another—Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds (R)—has already announced that she will not seek re-election. The remaining women governors currently serving are up for re-election in what is expected to be another competitive election year. Only the women (or woman) who win in 2025 are assured their offices in 2027.
Already, multiple non-incumbent women have announced their 2026 bids for governor, supplying a pool of candidates that could curb a possible loss in women's gubernatorial representation in 2027. This includes women running in states where incumbent women governors are departing.
An early poll finds Secretary of State Joceyln Benson is favored in the 2026 Democratic gubernatorial primary in Michigan, where current Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to run for re-election. Two prominent women officeholders—Secretary of State Shenna Bellows and former Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives Hannah Pingree—have already declared candidacy in Maine's Democratic primary to replace incumbent, and term-limited, Governor Janet Mills (D). Last week, state Senator Cindy Holscher became the first Democrat to declare candidacy to replace Kansas Governor Laura Kelly (D), and at least two women—former state Representative Charlotte O'Hara and Stacy Rogers—are running for the Republican nomination. In Iowa, where Governor Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking re-election, multiple women have either declared candidacy or expressed they might, including Republican Attorney General Brenna Bird and Julie Stauch, a longtime Democratic operative.
In New Mexico, former U.S. Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland (D) has launched her bid to succeed term-limited Governor Michelle Lujan-Grisham (D). Haaland, who was one of the first two Native women elected to Congress, would—if successful—become the first Native woman governor in the U.S. In Georgia, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) has announced her bid to become the first woman governor of her state. She would also be, if Earle-Sears is unsuccessful in 2025, the first Black woman governor nationwide. Former Vice President Kamala Harris (D), who could mark that same milestone, has reportedly told supporters that she will make her decision on whether or not to run for Governor of California by the end of summer, potentially joining a Democratic primary field that already includes multiple prominent women officeholders.
The future for women's gubernatorial representation will include both gains and losses, but the magnitude of each rise or fall is yet to be determined. At the least, we know that women will be a key part of the story in the next two years of gubernatorial elections, and their success may well influence the forecasting of who will—or should—run for president in 2028.