NASCAR Predictions for Richmond: Cook Out 400 Picks, including Race Winner
Ahead of the Cup Series race, let's dive into our NASCAR predictions for Richmond.
Denny Hamlin wins the pole at Richmond
Denny Hamlin enters the week with the best NASCAR odds (+400) to win the Cook Out 400. He won the pole at Richmond Raceway last August and he qualified third for the Cook Out 400 in 2023. While Hamlin has only won the pole once this season, the No. 11 car has consistently shown some of the best speed on ovals this summer. Learning from his mistake at the Brickyard 400, where he was poised to win the pole until he got too aggressive in the final turns, Hamlin will lead the field on Saturday night's race at Richmond.
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Tyler Reddick gets the Stage 1 win
The good news for Tyler Reddick heading into the Cook Out 400 is that he's already secured a playoff spot. With only two races remaining in the regular season, there's no chance of Chris Buescher (83 points behind Reddick) catching up to him and Alex Bowman (57 points back) has very little chance. So, for 23XI Racing, they just have to avoid last-place finishes to make it in. However, Reddick only has a single playoff point right now and isn't exactly well-positioned to make a deep run. The No. 45 team needs all the extra wiggle room it can get come playoff time, so it plays for the Stage 1 win on Saturday night for 10 stage points and 1 playoff point.
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Christopher Bell wins Stage 2
Christopher Bell needed that second-place finish at Watkins Glen. After winning three of the first four races of the season, Bell hasn't been to Victory Lane in a points race ever since. He was still racking up top-10s in the first half of the season, but he entered Watkins Glen with a 17.0 average finishing position in his previous seven races. He's also earned just 1 playoff point since his win at Phoenix. Bell's momentum from the second-place finish and the desire to pull closer to William Byron and Kyle Larson in playoff points culminate in him winning Stage 2.
Bubba Wallace records his fifth consecutive top-10 finish
23XI Racing and losing its charger, making its three cars run as open teams, seems to have gotten the best out of Bubba Wallace. He's delivered a career-best stretch over the last month, delivering four consecutive finishes inside the top 8 with a Brickyard 400 win. That streak includes 8th place on a road course (Watkins Glen) and his maneuvering through the field at Iowa when he came back from 2 laps down in the final stage to finish sixth. Now, Wallace is back at one of his best tracks. He finished fourth in the Cook Out 400 last year and placed 12th in the Toyota Owners 400. With the speeds the 23 car is showing as of late on ovals, Wallace will maintain his hot streak on Saturday.
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Austin Dillon finishes outside top 20
Austin Dillon will be a storyline of the Cook Out 400, given what happened last season. The reckless driving overshadowed the tremendous speed the No. 3 car had at Richmond last August. However, there were also rumors about a Joe Gibbs Racing engineer leaking car setup info to Richard Childress Racing. Fast forward to 2025 and Dillon hasn't exactly impressed. The No. 3 car ranks 22nd in average starting position (20.2) and he has one top-10 finish since Kansas. Dillon will get stuck in the middle of the pack for the majority of the night, unable to ever approach the front of the field.
Joey Logano wins the Cook Out 400
It will be redemption for Joey Logano on Saturday night at Richmond. Not only will Austin Dillon be out of the picture for most of the night, but Logano will get to enjoy the moment that was taken from him a year ago. If not for that incident, Logano would be tied with Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell for the most top-10s (five) at Richmond Raceway in the Next Gen era. The No. 22 car has been quiet as of late, ranking 13th in average finishing position (16.9) over the last 15 races and 14th (14.8) over the last six. Just two weeks before the playoffs, Logano gets his second win of the season.
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