New Zealand at 'significant risk' of missing 2050 climate target
Photo:
Supplied/ Unsplash - Chris Keats
New Zealand is at significant risk of
missing its 2050 climate target
, and the government's actions have increased the risk, according to independent monitoring.
The Climate Change Commission's 2025 emissions reduction monitoring report said New Zealand had made steady progress on reducing its climate pollution, but urgent action was needed to get on track for future goals.
The report had shown the country was likely to meet the government's first emissions budget, which runs from 2022 to 2025, in part due to accounting changes in the way emissions were measured.
However, the risks of missing targets from 2026 onwards had risen in the past year, and the government's plans were insufficient to put the country on track long-term.
Among the specific risks identified was the
increasingly shaky prospect of carbon capture and storage
happening in the gas sector.
The report said although the government's next emissions-cutting plan was not due until 2029, the coalition needed to take action before that because of the long lead-times taken for projects to start reducing pollution.
It gave the example of
NZ Steel's new electric furnace
, which took three years.
Jo Hendy, the commission's chief executive, said while things were broadly on track through to the end of this year, the risk of veering off course after that had increased.
Climate Change Commission chief exectuive Jo Hendy said there was a risk of things veering off course. (File photo)
Photo:
RNZ / Dom Thomas
Real emissions (before counting the carbon sucked in by forests) fell steadily from 2019 to 2023.
2023 was the lowest level of real or gross emissions since 1999 - and provisional figures from Stats NZ suggested emissions kept falling in most sectors through to 2024, except for electricity generation, which rose last year because of power generators burning more fossil fuels when hydro lakes were low.
Overall, the climate pollution trend was down, said Hendy.
"We're seeing more renewable energy generation, process heat conversions, electrification," said Hendy.
"And it's starting to show more in the emissions data. The key now is to build on that momentum - the next steps are crucial for delivery."
"The current policy settings aren't enough to deliver the emissions reductions that Aotearoa New Zealand has committed to. That's why we've recommended specific next steps, because delivery will falter without them."
The commission analysed every major sector, concluding the specific steps that would help the most were strengthening the Emissions Trading Scheme by updating the supply and price of carbon, to give companies more confidence to invest in cutting emissions, and bringing in policies to speed up the shifts to renewable energy, cleaner transport, and low-emissions farming.
It also said the government could save taxpayers money and cut industrial climate pollution by re-thinking the generous freebies given to some large emitters, and choosing a new way to protect manufacturing jobs from carbon pricing instead.
Hendy said many households were doing it tough, and would benefit if the government could capitalise on plunging prices for solar, electric vehicles, and batteries.
"Falling short doesn't just mean missing a target - it means higher costs down the track, lost economic opportunities, and more disruption for communities."
She said delivery was a stated priority for the government and the report provided the independent advice needed to "help them make good on that promise."
The report said technologies for farmers to reduce methane emissions had advanced in the last year and were close to being on the market.
Separately, the commission recommended shrinking the government's carbon budgets because changes to carbon accounting had moved the goal posts so the current budgets can be met with less real emissions cuts than were planned when the budgets were set.
If the government does this, it would be even further off target.
The report said moves by the government in the last year that risked producing more carbon included introducing road user charges for electric vehicles, re-opening oil and gas offshore exploration, and winding down the New Zealand Green Investment Finance fund.
On the flipside, positive moves for the climate included existing government plans to update ETS settings, confirming rail capability for new Cook Strait ferries, and streamlining consenting for new electricity generation from renewable sources.
"Our assessment of risk has increased in the last year, particularly for the third emissions budget," said the commission, referring to the 2031-2035 carbon budget.
"For the second emissions budget, there are moderate risks of not achieving planned reductions in most areas; and some areas of significant risk."
"While the third emissions reduction plan is not due until 2029, current plans are insufficient to meet the third budget and further action is required. There are also significant risks for meeting the 2050 target unless further action is taken."
It said the total of government policies in its latest emissions cutting plan would reduce climate pollution by 3.3 millions from 2026-2030.
Among the risks the commission listed were:
Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero
,
a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
NZ Herald
a day ago
- NZ Herald
Canterbury communities rally against police centralisation proposal
'We know our communities want us to tackle retail crime, gangs, and road safety,' Hill says. 'This proposal is about making sure we have a structure in place that enhances our ability to deliver those core policing services. 'Essentially, the aim is to have more frontline staff visible and available to our communities. 'That means we're not reducing our numbers but rather looking to change the way they're deployed.' Hill says speculation and rumour about the proposed changes is understandable but not helpful. He says it's 'really important to note that we're not planning to close any stations or front counters'. 'We are managing requests for our services from that community under our current model,' Hill says. 'We believe we can serve many of our communities better by expanding our 24/7 coverage. 'Our people are part of these communities too and we all want the same thing – to be safe and feel safe. 'That's why the consultation process is so important, and I want our communities to know I'm open to any and all feedback.' But Mayor Worboys says, in her experiences, public meetings have not been helpful. 'You get one or two that are loud and they take over and it's really hard to control,' says Worboys. 'So the key thing is just don't give up.' One week into a two-week consultation, the communities of North Canterbury and Selwyn are determined to keep their local police presence – rather than lose them to a centralised model that would see support come from larger areas like Rangiora and Rolleston. 'The proposed realignment of police services promises an overall increase in personnel for rural areas, including a stronger frontline presence in Amberley and a 24/7 response model supported by Rangiora-based officers. In Culverden, the focus is shifting toward road policing to address identified risks,' says Kaikōura MP Stuart Smith in a social media post. Stuart Smith, National MP for Kaikōura. Photo / NZME The promise of 'an overall increase in personnel' is language that Worboys is familiar with. 'It is the same message and it just doesn't happen. There are too many delays. The city takes priority. They just need to rethink this whole centralised model. It doesn't actually work,' says Worboys. The 'city' in Worboys' instance is Palmerston North, 20 minutes from Feilding. 'Feilding used to have 14 police based here. We had two youth aid officers. When things changed, they said, 'Oh, but your stats there show that crime is declining so, therefore, we'll take the resources away. And I'm going, 'well, why do you think the crime is declining?',' says Worboys. Response times are a key complaint under the proposed restructure – and it's mentioned in Smith's Facebook post. 'North Canterbury is unique. Our communities are spread across vast rural landscapes, where response times and visible policing are not just conveniences—they are lifelines. Residents deserve assurance that any changes will enhance, not diminish, their safety and confidence in law enforcement,' says Smith. Worboys warns the district's residents not to hold their breath. 'We had a bit of a run there for a while where some of our key businesses were getting hit night after night. One business had the cars on [security camera] footage and everything. The owner of that business lived 20 minutes away and every time the alarm went off, he got to his business before the police did. If they turned up at all,' says Worboys. 'They will always tell us that there are 2 police rostered on in the i-cars [incident patrol], but Lord knows where they are in the middle of the night. Manawatu District Mayor Helen Worboys. Photo / ManawatuNZ Canterbury's battle to keep its country cops isn't without hope – even as NZ Police and Smith utter the three words that so often precede a significant restructure, reminding media and the public that 'it's a proposal'. Worboys can point to a recent occasion where a proposal wasn't adopted, due to informed opposition. 'The Kimbolton cop who lives 40 minutes out of town did the whole of the northern rural area for our district. Everybody knew him. He knew who the ratbags were. But when he retired, they said, 'Oh, no, we're going to replace them, but they'll work out of the Feilding police station. 'And we lobbied really hard and we got that changed. We now have the new guy back up in Kimbolton because they are the eyes and ears for that community and the local people trust them,' says Worboys. The connection with their community is what the Manawatū District Mayor believes is the key argument to keeping a local police presence. Worboys believes statistics can be manipulated. 'There's a whole lot of really hard-to-measure benefits about having them actually located in your rural communities. 'The absolute key thing is it's not about stats. You need to think about the non-financial benefits of having police in rural communities. It is significant. It's part of what makes communities good,' says Worboys. Wednesday night's community meeting was being supported by North Canterbury Federated Farmers president, Bex Green. 'Farming families rely on local police stations to feel safe and supported. Closing them down sends a cold message that rural communities don't matter,' said Green. 'We're pretty upset with the proposal. Especially in Culverden with the closure of the two policemen here,' Green told the Herald. North Canterbury Federated Farmers president Bex Green. Photo / Supplied Worboys says she feels for those having to make difficult decisions. 'I feel sorry for the police because they've got limited resources and they're trying to make decisions the best that they can. 'But my plea is that if you actually work with communities, you will find that communities will support police, and it will make life easier for police because the communities know what's going on. They know who the ratbags are,' says Worboys. Mike Thorpe is a senior journalist for the Herald, based in Christchurch. He has been a broadcast journalist across television and radio for 20 years and joined the Herald in August 2024.
Otago Daily Times
2 days ago
- Otago Daily Times
Ex-minister hits out at pine carbon farming
A tree industry expert and former minister of forestry has condemned "lock and leave" carbon farming, but says you still can not tell farmers what to do with their land. Former Labour minister Stuart Nash said in his time with the portfolio he had a dream for how the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) would benefit the country. "With the ETS, for the first time ever there's been an economic incentive to plant up land that should have never been cleared in the first place," he said. But forestry conversions, since the incentive was introduced, where dense pines were planted with no plan to harvest the mature trees, were not good, he said. "You will end up with an ecological disaster in between 80 and 100 years," he said. He understood that some legislation was developing to help restrict the planting of pines, but said you still can not tell farmers what to do with their land and their money. "I don't know if that's the right route," he said. "Farmers get pretty p..... off ... because what it does mean is, their farm which may be worth, $10 million to a forester is now only worth $7m." The Climate Change Response (Emissions Trading Scheme-Forestry Conversions) Amendment Bill passed its first reading in June. It proposed restrictions to the quality and proportion of arable land that could be planted in trees. Mr Nash had a masters degree in forestry science and previously worked for construction, paper and forestry giants Carter Holt Harvey and Fletcher Challenge. His ideal for carbon farming was that pines would be planted low density, for no longer than 50 years, while at the same time seeding natives. Then after 50 years, the ministry would allow the grower to collect carbon credits of the native forest as the pines died off. In this ideal situation, carbon farmers would not be allowed to collect credits or money on pines past that 50-year cut-off. He said research by the sustainability charitable trust Pure Advantage showed that Mānuka could be a just as fast growing and carbon-absorbing alternative to pines. While he was the minister, he said the research needed more time to cook and the good thing about pines were that they were the most hardy. "It's the over-boiled Brussels sprouts of the trees," he said. "Not many people like it, not many [bugs and diseases] like it [either]." Coming from Napier, he had seen the devastation Cylone Gabrielle and Cyclone Hale had on the east coast of the North Island in 2023. This was where trees on farms would have come in handy, he said as roots made the ground more hardy, and would have prevented slips and other soft ground corrosion after the floods. A lot of New Zealand land should never had been cleared for farming and he said it was expensive to plant hilly, non-productive land, without incentive. He said despite seeing the benefit of forests and the ETS for the land, he by no means wanted to see highly productive farms and soil turned into carbon farms. "I'm really loathe to tell farmers what they should and shouldn't do," he said. "But I'm very happy to tell carbon farmers what they should do."
Scoop
3 days ago
- Scoop
Funding Awarded To Six Local Waste-Reduction And Sustainability Initiatives
Press Release – Tauranga City Council The annual fund is sourced from the Waste Levy, provided to councils by the Ministry for the Environment for waste minimisation education, and does not impose additional costs on general rates. Tauranga City Council is pleased to announce six recipients of this year's Resource Wise® Community Fund. A total of $122,000 has been awarded to the six innovative projects aimed at reducing waste and promoting sustainability in Tauranga. The annual fund is sourced from the Waste Levy, provided to councils by the Ministry for the Environment for waste minimisation education, and does not impose additional costs on general rates. Tauranga City Councillor Glen Crowther says he is excited to see the list of recipients, which includes several community organisations and businesses that have made significant contributions to our city over many years. 'I know all the organisations that have been successful and can verify they're doing some fantastic work to reduce waste and promote a more sustainable, circular economy. It's great to see central government's waste levy being used to support these exciting local projects at no cost to our ratepayers.' Tauranga City Council's Manager of Sustainability and Waste Dan Smith says this year saw the highest number of community fund applications ever received, reflecting Tauranga's growing commitment to waste minimisation. 'We had 13 applications this year, which represents the innovative spirit of the Tauranga community in addressing waste and sustainability challenges.' The fund is designed to support local initiatives that align with Council's Waste Management Minimisation Plan 2022–2028, continuing the city's commitment to reducing material consumption, promote reuse and repair, prevent food waste, and transition towards a circular economy. This year, a diverse range of community groups, businesses, and organisations have been awarded funding to implement projects that will make a difference in our community, including: Green Bottle: A pilot programme aimed at reducing carbon emissions through the collection and reuse of NZ-made wine bottles from participating hospitality outlets. By simply washing and reusing bottles versus standard recycling of single-use bottles businesses can save up to 95% of carbon emissions. Working in close partnership with Tauranga's bars and restaurants, Green Bottle hopes to show how small changes in how we collect waste can make a big difference to our environment while also saving businesses money and creating new local jobs. Turning point: Community based organisation Turning Point will trial a new garment and textile shredder to divert large volumes of textile waste from landfill, while at the same time supporting local schools, sewing educators, sustainability champions, and social enterprises focused on reuse and circular practices. Circularity: The Circular Economy Precinct project created by Circularity will support local businesses, schools, rest homes, and community organisations in Tauranga to collaboratively reduce food and its associated packaging waste. Resource Wise Community Fund 2025 recipients:
