Is Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. (NYSE:FBIN) Trading At A 40% Discount?
Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Fortune Brands Innovations fair value estimate is US$93.35
Fortune Brands Innovations is estimated to be 40% undervalued based on current share price of US$56.44
Our fair value estimate is 42% higher than Fortune Brands Innovations' analyst price target of US$65.90
Does the May share price for Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. (NYSE:FBIN) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Our free stock report includes 2 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Fortune Brands Innovations. Read for free now.
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
US$530.6m
US$557.5m
US$595.2m
US$643.3m
US$704.9m
US$749.4m
US$788.7m
US$824.1m
US$856.9m
US$887.8m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x3
Analyst x6
Analyst x2
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Est @ 6.31%
Est @ 5.24%
Est @ 4.50%
Est @ 3.97%
Est @ 3.61%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.6%
US$488
US$472
US$464
US$462
US$466
US$456
US$441
US$425
US$406
US$388
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$4.5b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.6%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$888m× (1 + 2.8%) ÷ (8.6%– 2.8%) = US$15b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$15b÷ ( 1 + 8.6%)10= US$6.8b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$11b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$56.4, the company appears quite good value at a 40% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Fortune Brands Innovations as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.361. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
View our latest analysis for Fortune Brands Innovations
Strength
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Building market.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Fortune Brands Innovations, we've put together three essential aspects you should further research:
Risks: Be aware that Fortune Brands Innovations is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
Future Earnings: How does FBIN's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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PROPOSED RTO, $35 MILLION FINANCING & CONSOLIDATION OF THE PECOY COPPER PORPHYRY PROJECT IN SOUTHERN PERU
/NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO U.S. NEWS WIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES./ VANCOUVER, BC, June 11, 2025 /CNW/ - Priyanka Capital Inc. ("Priyanka" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that it has entered into a letter of intent with Pecoy Copper Limited, a special purpose vehicle ("Pecoy SPV") founded by the former management team of Nomad Royalty Company Ltd. The proposed transaction is intended to result in a reverse takeover of the Company by Pecoy SPV (the "RTO"). The Transaction Pecoy SPV has recently signed a series of binding acquisition and option agreements (the "Acquisition Agreements") with Copper X Mining Corp., Pembrook Copper Corp., and various private third parties to consolidate ownership of the Pecoy copper-gold-molybdenum project (the "Pecoy Project" or "Pecoy") located in southern Peru. Upon closing of the Acquisition Agreements and the RTO (the "Transaction"), the Company, to be renamed Pecoy Copper Corp. (the "Pecoy Copper"), will directly or indirectly either own, or hold an option to acquire, all of the properties comprising the Pecoy Project. Closing of the RTO is conditional upon receiving conditional approval (the "TSXV Conditional Approval") from the TSX Venture Exchange ("TSXV") for the listing of the common shares of the Company on the TSXV. As part of the Transaction, Pecoy SPV has engaged Canaccord Genuity Corp. ("Canaccord Genuity") to act as lead agent and sole bookrunner in connection with a private placement of subscription receipts for gross proceeds of approximately $35 million. Management, officers and affiliates of Pecoy Copper intend to subscribe for up to $8.5 million of the private placement. Creating A New Leading Copper-Gold Focused Development Company The Transaction would unlock the full potential of one of the world's largest undeveloped copper-gold-molybdenum porphyry deposits by consolidating its ownership for the first time. The benefits of this transaction to the Company are expected to include the following: Pecoy Copper represents a rare opportunity to acquire one of the world's largest undeveloped copper-gold-molybdenum porphyry deposits, with an Inferred Mineral Resource of approximately 865 million tonnes grading 0.34% Cu, 0.012% Mo, 0.05 g/t Au, and 1.33 g/t Ag; containing 6.5 billion pounds of copper and offering substantial resource expansion potential. The Pecoy Project has over US$65 million in historical investment since its discovery in 2011 that supports the potential for a large-scale, low-strip, open-pit operation at a favorable low elevation of 1,650 metres above sea level. Significant exploration upside exists not only at Pecoy but also across more than 19,772 hectares of surrounding concessions, including the Tororume Project, with multiple early and advanced-stage targets already identified. To date, only 48,576 metres of diamond drilling have been completed at Pecoy, with near-term priority targets in the center of the pit and south breccia zones. Initial metallurgical testing indicates a high copper recovery rate of 88%, with no deleterious elements detected. Further testwork will assess the potential to produce a molybdenum concentrate through Cu-Mo separation. The project benefits from robust infrastructure and long-term community agreements, including a 30-year surface access agreement with local communities, active drill permits, and an operational exploration camp — all of which support near-term drilling and development efforts. Peru is a top-tier mining jurisdiction, consistently ranked among the world's leading producers of copper, gold, silver, tin and zinc. Mining is a key contributor to the country's GDP and the global supply of metals. Strategically located within the Southern Peru Porphyry Copper Belt, Pecoy sits at the northwestern end of a district that hosts world-class deposits such as Cerro Verde, Cuajone, Toquepala, Quellaveco, Zafranal, and Cerro Negro, making it ideally positioned for rapid advancement. Proceeds from the upcoming financing will be used to complete 30,000 metres of exploration drilling, conduct metallurgical and geotechnical studies, and advance the Pecoy Project toward a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA). The Offering Pecoy SPV has entered into an engagement letter with Canaccord Genuity to act as lead agent and sole bookrunner, on its own behalf and on behalf of a syndicate of agents (collectively, the "Agents"), in connection with an offering of subscription receipts (the "Subscription Receipts") at a price of $0.60 per Subscription Receipt (the "Offering Price") for gross proceeds of approximately $35 million (the "Offering"). The Offering shall be conducted on a "best efforts" private placement basis. Pecoy SPV has also granted the Agents an option (the "Agents' Option") to sell up to such number of additional Subscription Receipts as is equal to 15% of the number of Subscription Receipts sold under the Offering at the Offering Price. The Agents' Option shall be exercisable, in whole or in part, at any time up to 48 hours prior to closing of the Offering. Upon closing of the Offering, the gross proceeds of the Offering, less certain payments to the Agents on account of their expenses and partial commission, shall be held in escrow until certain conditions are met, including receipt of the TSXV Conditional Approval and the satisfaction of all conditions to closing of the Acquisition Agreements. Each Subscription Receipt shall be automatically exchanged for, without payment of any additional consideration and without further action on the part of the holder thereof, one common share of Pecoy SPV upon satisfaction of the escrow release conditions prior to the date that is 90 days following the Offering closing date. Upon closing of the RTO, all Pecoy SPV shares, including the shares issuable under the Subscription Receipts, shall be exchanged for shares of Pecoy Copper. Additional details of the Offering shall be announced upon closing of the Offering. The net proceeds of the Offering shall be used to fund the cash consideration in connection with the Acquisition Agreements, advance exploration and development of the Pecoy Copper Project, as well as for working capital and general corporate purposes. The completion of the foregoing transactions is subject to a number of closing conditions, including shareholder approval in certain circumstances and the receipt of the TSXV Conditional Approval. "Pecoy Copper is a rare opportunity to unlock one of the world's largest undeveloped copper-gold-molybdenum systems," said Vincent Metcalfe, CEO, Director and Co-Founder of Pecoy Copper. "With a large-scale resource already defined, exceptional exploration potential, and long-term community agreements in place, we are well positioned to accelerate development. Pecoy Copper is set to play a meaningful role in Peru's mining future and the global copper supply chain. We're thrilled to launch this new chapter with the strong support of all our stakeholders." "Having worked in Peru for over 10 years, I, like Mr. Metcalfe, have continuously sought 'The Project' that combines established value, scale, exploration potential, and a clear development roadmap," commented Paul Matysek, Chairman and Co-Founder of Pecoy Copper. "Historically, the advancement of the project has been hampered by fractured ownership, but uniting both parts of the deposit for the first time is a major milestone that clears the way for further development. Our experienced team, an established resource with significant upside, a 30-year community agreement, and proximity to infrastructure, are key elements that will propel Pecoy Copper to success." Pecoy Copper Board and Management Upon closing of the Transaction, the management and board of the Company shall be reconstituted to lead the development of the Pecoy Project. The board will consist of Paul Matysek (Chair), Luis Zapata, Vincent Metcalfe, Jerrold Annett, Jose Luque and two additional nominees to be determined. The management team will be led by Vincent Metcalfe as President and CEO and will include Vincent Cardin-Tremblay as Chief Geological Officer and Luis Zapata as Managing Director (Peru) in addition to other management appointments to be determined. Vincent Metcalfe – President, CEO & DirectorAccomplished senior executive with over 20 years of experience building companies and advancing mining projects. Brings deep expertise in M&A, financial management, and raising capital. Co-Founder of Evolve Royalties and former CEO and Chair of Nomad Royalty, sold to Sandstorm. Recipient of the YMP Peter Munk Award for leadership and innovation in mining. Paul Matysek – ChairmanSerial entrepreneur, M&A specialist, and geologist with over 40 years of experience in the mining industry. Since 2007 as CEO or Chairman, Mr. Matysek has sold six publicly listed companies, in aggregate worth over $3 billion, with two assets going into commercial production: Bethune Mine - Potash One and Lindero Mine - Goldrock Mines. Most recently, he was the CEO of Gold X Mining Corp. that was sold to Grand Columbia Gold Corp. for approximately $365 million. Mr. Matysek is a recipient of the EY Entrepreneur of the Year for Mining & Resources. Vincent Cardin-Tremblay – Chief Geological OfficerAccomplished geologist with extensive exploration and mining experience across the Americas and Africa. Served as VP–Geology at Nomad Royalty Company prior to its acquisition by Sandstorm Gold. He has also held senior technical roles at Harte Gold, Golden Star, and IAMGOLD, and worked with Freeport-McMoRan and Glencore. Luis Zapata – Managing Director – Peru, DirectorFinance and mining executive with 15 years of experience in resource development. Mr. Zapata has financed and operated numerous mining and energy projects. Currently serves as CEO of a private Peruvian gold producer, and as President & Director of Axcap Ventures. Held senior roles including Head of Latin American Equities at Canaccord Genuity. Jerrold Annett – DirectorGlobal mining and capital markets specialist, and metallurgist with 29+ years of experience in mining. Most recently responsible for leading Capstone Copper's investor relations, marketing and metal sales activities. Worked at Teck Resources and Falconbridge as a metallurgist and in metal sales, followed by 10 years in capital markets, including with Scotiabank where he was Head of Mining Institutional Sales. He is a P. Eng. and has a Bachelor of Applied Science in Mining and Mineral Engineering from Queen's University. Jose Luque – DirectorSenior executive with over 30 years of experience building shareholder value. Possesses profound insights in mining operations, M&A, organizational leadership, project management, financial management and restructuring. Serves as CEO of Gea Mining which promotes the development of underground mines and exploration of copper porphyry targets. Held senior executive positions in several S&P companies in the United States and Latin America. Pecoy – Resource Statement Pecoy - Inferred Resources Cut-Off Tonnage Grade Contained % Cu M tonnes Cu % Mo % Au ppm Ag ppm B Lbs Cu 0.15 2,278 0.24 0.010 0.03 1.10 12,053 0.20 1,302 0.29 0.011 0.04 1.23 8,324 0.23 865 0.34 0.012 0.05 1.33 6,451 0.25 742 0.36 0.012 0.05 1.37 5,889 Notes: 1. Mineral Resources are not Mineral Reserves and have not demonstrated economic viability. 2. The MRE has been categorized in accordance with the CIM Definition Standards (CIM, 2014). 3. All figures are rounded to reflect the relative accuracy of the estimates. Minor discrepancies may occur due to rounding to appropriate significant figures. 4. The Mineral Resource was estimated by Ms. Muñoz QP (MAIG) of Mining Plus, Independent Qualified Person under NI 43-101. 5. The effective date of the Mineral Resource Estimate is 30 April 2025. 6. The Mineral Resource is reported inside a whittle pit shell with a cut-off grade of 0.23 % copper, estimated using a copper price of US$/lb 3.25, molybdenum price of US$ 8/lb, gold price of US$ 1,400/oz and silver price of US$ 20/oz. 7. Mining Plus is not aware of any legal, political, environmental, or other risks that could materially affect the potential development of the Mineral Resource Estimate Conditions to Closing The completion of the Transaction will be subject to a number of conditions customary for a transaction of this nature, including but not limited to entering into a definitive agreement in respect of the Transaction, the receipt of required regulatory and corporate approvals, approval of the Amalgamation by the shareholders of Pembrook, completion of the Acquisition Agreements; and the closing of the Offering. This news release does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any of the securities in the United States. The securities have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "U.S. Securities Act") or any state securities laws and may not be offered or sold within the United States or to U.S. Persons unless registered under the U.S. Securities Act and applicable state securities laws or an exemption from such registration is available. About the Pecoy Project The Pecoy Project covers an area of 9,975 hectares (ha) across 19 concessions without prior mining activity. The Project is located along the northwest extension of the Southern Peru Porphyry Copper Belt, a metallogenic corridor that hosts several large-scale porphyry copper deposits. The project area is underlain by intrusive rocks of the Coastal Batholith, including porphyritic granites and granodiorites, which are intruded by hydrothermal breccias, dacitic porphyries and multitude of dikes. Alteration consists of widespread sericitization (chlorite and sericite alteration) and silicification near the center of the system, grading downward to potassic and outward to propylitic alteration. Additionally, there are narrow gold-bearing quartz veins in the periphery of the system. Mineralization is associated with a porphyry copper system featuring well-developed supergene and primary zones, where copper occurs mainly as chalcocite and chalcopyrite. At surface, mineralization is almost totally oxidized. Leached, supergene, copper oxide, enrichment and transitional zones of the porphyry copper deposit are leached to a maximum depth of 200 to 240 m. The secondary enrichment zone has an average approximate thickness of 20 m, with a minimum of 2 meters and a maximum of 70 m. The primary mineralization extends to depths greater than 1,000 m, with significant copper and gold values hosted in breccia bodies and porphyritic intrusions and remains open laterally and at depth. The Pecoy Project is situated at the northwest end of the Southern Peru Porphyry Copper Belt which also hosts the large Cuajone, Toquepala, Quellaveco, Cerro Verde, Zafranal, and Cerro Negro porphyry deposits. Porphyry copper mineralization occurs above multi-phase intrusive complexes and can produce large tonnage, low grade copper deposits with possible by-products of gold and molybdenum. To date, the Pecoy Project includes 121 diamond drill holes totaling 48,576 m of drilling. Drilling has consistently intersected porphyry-style mineralization, with copper, gold, silver, and molybdenum values continuously distributed across the drilled area. The technical disclosure in this news release has been reviewed and approved by Vincent Cardin-Tremblay, P. Geo., who is a Qualified Person as defined by National Instrument 43-101 of the Canadian Securities Administrators. About the Company The Company is a reporting issuer in the Provinces of British Columbia and Alberta. The Company's shares are not currently listed on any stock exchange and it is presently engaged in identifying and evaluating potential business opportunities. ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS Robert Dubeau, President, CEO and Director Suite 1500, 1055 West Georgia Street, Vancouver, BC V6E 4N7 Telephone: 778 837 8550 Email: bobbydubeau@ Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements This news release includes certain statements that may be deemed "forward-looking statements". All statements in this new release, other than statements of historical facts, that address events or developments that the Company expects to occur, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts and are generally, but not always, identified by the words "expects", "plans", "anticipates", "believes", "intends", "estimates", "projects", "potential" and similar expressions, or that events or conditions "will", "would", "may", "could" or "should" occur and specifically include statements regarding the Transaction, the Amalgamation; the timing and potential completion of the Transaction; satisfaction of the conditions precedent to closing of the Transaction; the Name Change; the Board Re-Constitution; and the Company's business and strategic plans. Although the Company believes the expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results may differ materially from those in the forward looking statements. Investors are cautioned that any such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs, estimates and opinions of the Company's management on the date the statements are made. Except as required by applicable securities laws, the Company undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements in the event that management's beliefs, estimates or opinions, or other factors, should change. SOURCE Pecoy Copper View original content:
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