Gold vs Nifty: Which investment gave higher SIP return in one year?
With
gold
prices in India soaring to record levels this week and breaching the Rs 1 lakh mark, an analysis by ETMutualFunds shows that Gold ETFs have significantly outperformed
Nifty
ETFs over the past year in terms of SIP returns.
For the analysis, SBI Mutual Fund's
Gold ETF
and Nifty 50 ETF were considered. If an investor had made a monthly SIP of Rs 10,000 in the SBI Gold ETF, the XIRR over a one-year period would have been 54.35%. In contrast, the same investment in the SBI Nifty 50 ETF would have yielded an XIRR of just 2.93%.
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Further analysis reveals that, including the SBI Gold ETF, 16 gold-based ETFs have delivered XIRRs ranging between 48.32% and 54.85% over the past year.
Among the 16 Gold ETFs, Axis Gold ETF delivered the highest return of 54.85%, followed by ICICI Prudential Gold ETF, which posted an XIRR of 54.62% on SIP investments. Nippon India ETF Gold BeES delivered the lowest return among the group, with an XIRR of 48.32% over the same period.
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On the other hand, apart from the SBI Nifty 50 ETF, there are 15 ETFs benchmarked to the Nifty 50, which have offered XIRRs ranging between 2.87% and 3.03%. Quantum Nifty 50 ETF FoF delivered the highest return at 3.03%, followed by LIC MF Nifty 50 ETF at 3.01%. Invesco India Nifty 50 ETF gave the lowest return of 2.87% in the last one year.
According to Tata Mutual Fund, the current drivers behind gold's ascent include central bank accumulation, the dollar index effect, economic uncertainty, inflationary pressure, and ETF inflows. The fund house further mentions that these factors have led to substantial inflows into gold-backed ETFs, with UBS projecting inflows to reach 450 metric tons in 2025.
In a release by Motilal Oswal Wealth Management, the firm noted:
'We could continue to see volatility in gold this year. Risk-taking traders can ride the rally, while conservative investors may wait for dips to accumulate. We continue to recommend 'Buying on Dips.' We believe gold could inch toward $3,350–3,500 and consolidate near those levels. Assuming USDINR at 85, the immediate domestic range is Rs 96,500–1,00,000, with Rs 1,06,000 a possibility from a longer-term perspective.'
Tata Mutual Fund echoed a similar outlook:
'Gold prices may remain firm in the medium term, supported by central bank buying, expected rate cuts, a weaker dollar, inflation, economic uncertainty (including tariff-related risks), ETF inflows, and geopolitical factors. Leading financial institutions have adjusted their forecasts accordingly.'
'While short-term corrections are possible, as gold has surged over 25% in the past six weeks—a move that historically takes 3–5 months—long-term fundamentals remain supportive,' the fund house added.
According to the latest AMFI data, Gold ETFs saw net outflows of Rs 77 crore in March, compared to inflows of Rs 1,979 crore in February. However, FY25 Gold ETF inflows stood at Rs 14,852 crore, a 183% year-on-year increase from Rs 5,248 crore in FY24.
Despite the outflows in March, experts believe the shift was largely driven by profit-booking after the sharp surge in gold prices.
Also Read | G
old price breaks records, yet ETFs see outflow. Investors withdrew Rs 77 crore in March
'Gold ETFs saw a reversal in March, with net outflows of Rs 77.21 crore compared to Rs 1,979.84 crore of inflows in February. This was largely due to profit-booking. However, the AAUM for Gold ETFs grew by 3.82% to Rs 57,101.29 crore due to the rally in gold prices, which could further drive investor interest,' said Ajay Garg, CEO of
SMC Global Securities
.
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