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How one phone call could lead to Thai PM's downfall

How one phone call could lead to Thai PM's downfall

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who has been in the job barely 12 months, is fighting for her political survival.
The country's Constitutional Court has suspended her pending a case seeking her dismissal. Thirty-six senators accuse Ms Paetongtarn of dishonesty and breaching ethical standards in violation of the constitution.
The reason? A phone call on June 15 to Hun Sen, the former leader of neighbouring Cambodia, which was then leaked to the media by Hun Sen himself and sparked mass protests in Bangkok last weekend.
What was said on the phone call?
The call was apparently an attempt to defuse simmering tensions between the countries. This came after a Cambodian soldier was killed in late May during a firefight with Thai forces in a small 'no man's land' known as the Emerald Triangle, which is the shared border between Thailand, Cambodia and Laos.
Protests calling for Paetongtarn Shinawatra's dismissal erupted in Thailand after the phone call to Hun Sen was leaked. ( Athit Perawongmetha )
'Paetongtarn made some very ill-advised remarks which implied that the Thai military was being a problem for her,' said Greg Raymond, a senior lecturer in the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre in the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs at the Australian National University.
'She used some language which was quite deferential and sort of intimate with Hun Sen ... [she] called him uncle.
'It was extremely unprofessional and ill-advised but not surprising given ... Paetongtarn has not had the political experience to become prime minister.
'So it was inevitable that she would make some terrible mistake ... and of course this has raised tensions as well.''
La Trobe University research fellow and Cambodia expert Gordon Conochie said the phone call seemed to confirm long held suspicions about the close relationship between the Shinawatra and Hun families.
Former Thai prime ministers with Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen (front, centre) and his extended family in Phnom Penh November 10, 2009. ( Reuters )
'That's the biggest harm to the Thai prime minister. So she's now having to try to distance herself from that,' he said.
How close are the families?
Ms Paetongtarn's father (and former PM) Thaksin Shinawatra and Hun Sen, whose son is now the Cambodian prime minister, have been friendly for years. The pair also remain active in politics.
Dr Raymond said this makes things convoluted and 'a bit weird'.
'Nationalists and conservatives are well aware that Hun Sen and Thaksin have had a close personal relationship, possibly also a business relationship,' he said.
'They [have] stayed at each other's houses. Hun Sen was one of the first people to visit Thailand when Thaksin returned from exile.''
How does this relate back to the border dispute?
Border disputes have caused periodic tensions between the two neighbours for years.
Since the soldier was killed, Cambodia banned Thai movies and TV shows, stopped the import of Thai fruits and vegetables and boycotted its neighbour's international internet links and power supply. Thousands have marched through the capital Phnom Penh to show their solidarity with the government and military.
Thailand in turn blocked tourists from crossing the border. Tourism is vital for Cambodia's economy.
Dr Raymond said there's 'a reasonably good case' that the tension was ignited by Hun Sen himself.
Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen, right, greets senior officers during a visit to the border region. ( Agence Kampuchea Press via AP )
"Hun Sen had posted on his own Facebook page around this time [of the shooting] showing himself next to some old Khmer temples which are currently seen as being on the Thai side of the border and … making some comments about whether or not these are Cambodian," Dr Raymond said. "Of course, it's easy to inflame passions on the Thai side too.
"Hun Sen is definitely pressing a lot of Thai buttons at the moment.''
How long have the countries squabbled over land?
The border disputes stem largely from a 1907 map drawn under French colonial rule that was used to separate Cambodia from Thailand.
An 11th century Hindu temple called Preah Vihear, or Khao Phra Viharn in Thailand, has been at the heart of the dispute for decades, with both Bangkok and Phnom Penh claiming historical ownership. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) awarded the temple to Cambodia in 1962, but Thailand has continued to lay claim to the surrounding land.
The 11th century Hindu Preah Vihear temple is at the centre of Thailand's dispute with Cambodia. ( AP: Heng Sinith )
This has raised nationalist tension between the two countries, notably in 2003 when rioters torched the Thai embassy and Thai businesses in Phnom Penh over an alleged remark by a Thai celebrity questioning jurisdiction over Cambodia's World Heritage-listed Angkor Wat temple.
Tension escalated in 2008 after Cambodia attempted to list the Preah Vihear temple as a UNESCO World Heritage site, leading to skirmishes over several years and at least a dozen deaths, including during a weeklong exchange of artillery in 2011.
Two years later, Cambodia sought interpretation of the 1962 verdict and the ICJ again ruled in its favour, saying the land around the temple was also part of Cambodia and ordering Thai troops to withdraw.
What happens next with the border?
While Cambodia wants a ruling from the ICJ over several disputed areas, Thailand doesn't accept the jurisdiction of the ICJ.
Dr Raymond said a military escalation is unlikely. 'Neither military has the appetite or the plans for any serious escalation,' he said. "I think it will sort of fizzle eventually.''
Mr Conochie agrees. "It's no longer about that military conflict. It's now moved into the issue of the phone call.''
ABC/AP and Reuters
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Thaksin, 75, dodged jail and spent six months in hospital detention on medical grounds before being released on parole in February last year. The Supreme Court will in July scrutinise that hospital stay and could potentially send him back to jail. Thailand's Constitutional Court has suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from duty pending a case seeking her dismissal, in a major setback for a government under fire on multiple fronts and fighting for its survival. The court accepted a petition from 36 senators accusing Paetongtarn of dishonesty and breaching ethical standards, based on a leak of a sensitive telephone call with Cambodia's influential former leader Hun Sen that was intended to de-escalate a territorial row and tense troop buildup at their border. The leaked June 15 call triggered domestic fury and has left Paetongtarn's coalition with a razor-thin majority after a big party abandoned the alliance and accused her of undermining sovereignty, as protest groups threaten more demonstrations to demand a new government. Paetongtarn's battles after only 10 months in office underline an intractable power struggle between the billionaire Shinawatra dynasty and an influential establishment backed by the army - a two-decade grudge match that has seen two military coups and court rulings that have toppled multiple parties and prime ministers. She accepted the court's decision on Tuesday and apologised over the leaked call, during which she kowtowed before Hun Sen and criticised a Thai army commander, a red line in a country where the military has significant clout. "My true intention in the leaked conversation, my true intention 100 per cent, was to work for the country to maintain our sovereignty and save the lives of all our soldiers," Paetongtarn told reporters on Tuesday. It has been a baptism of fire for political novice Paetongtarn, who at 37 was thrust into the spotlight last year as Thailand's youngest premier after the Constitutional Court dismissed ally Srettha Thavisin for a violation of ethical standards. Paetongtarn, the fourth member of her family to hold the top post, has been struggling to revive a stuttering economy and arrest a sharp decline in popularity, with an opinion poll released at the weekend showing her approval rating sinking to 9.2 per cent in June from 30.9 per cent in March. Deputy Prime Minister Suriya Juangroongruangkit takes over as caretaker premier while the court decides the case against Paetongtarn, who has 15 days to respond and will stay in the cabinet as the new culture minister following a reshuffle. 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Thailand's Constitutional Court has suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from duty pending a case seeking her dismissal, in a major setback for a government under fire on multiple fronts and fighting for its survival. The court accepted a petition from 36 senators accusing Paetongtarn of dishonesty and breaching ethical standards, based on a leak of a sensitive telephone call with Cambodia's influential former leader Hun Sen that was intended to de-escalate a territorial row and tense troop buildup at their border. The leaked June 15 call triggered domestic fury and has left Paetongtarn's coalition with a razor-thin majority after a big party abandoned the alliance and accused her of undermining sovereignty, as protest groups threaten more demonstrations to demand a new government. 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