What Trump's new tariffs could mean for Texas jobs, oil, and your wallet

Yahoo

03-04-2025

ODESSA, Texas (KMID/KPEJ)- Wall Street is rattled. Groceries may soon cost more. And in the heart of the Permian Basin, economists say the fallout from President Trump's sweeping new tariffs could cut deep, even for energy producers and oil-working families.
The Associated Press reports that stock markets plunged after Trump announced the most severe volley of tariffs to date, sparking fears of rising inflation and economic slowdown. Nearly every sector felt the shock, from crude oil and Big Tech to U.S.-only small-cap stocks. For West Texans, the immediate concern isn't Wall Street…it's the wallet.
According to economist Dr. Ray Perryman, President of the Waco-based Perryman Group and a long-trusted voice on Texas economics, the financial fallout could be massive. 'No one's going to escape this completely,' Perryman said. 'We estimate a potential loss of $46 billion in annual gross product and 370,000 jobs in Texas alone.'
Calling foreign trade practices a national emergency, Trump invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), triggering a 10% 'blanket tariff' on all imports starting April 5. By April 9, countries with the largest U.S. trade deficits, like China, will face even higher, individualized rates.
A White House statement framed the move as a patriotic stand for 'reciprocal trade' and economic sovereignty. 'Access to the American market is a privilege, not a right,' it read.
But Perryman warns the economics don't add up.
'When a good comes into the U.S., the person or company receiving it pays the tariff,' he said. 'That cost gets passed to consumers. It's not foreign governments paying us—it's us paying more.'
The Permian Basin's economic backbone, oil and gas, relies heavily on steel, equipment, and imported parts. 'Steel plays a crucial role in oil production, from drilling rigs to pipelines,' Perryman said. 'Tariffs on steel will drive up costs for energy companies across the region.'
Higher production costs may temporarily boost local oil output, but Perryman said the long-term effect will be negative. 'We already have ample supply,' he explained. 'If these tariffs remain in place long-term, the strain on our supply chains and budgets will be severe.'
From oil rigs to grocery aisles: What tariffs could mean for the Permian Basin
And it's not just energy. 'Produce prices will go up, car prices will go up,' he said. Perryman estimates the average Texas family could end up paying $1,500 more annually if the tariffs are sustained. The cost of an average vehicle could rise by as much as $10,000 due to tariffs on imported parts.
Markets reacted sharply because the tariffs were 'larger than anticipated,' Perryman explained. While short-term volatility is common, he warned that if tariffs are sustained, 'you're looking at a potential vulnerability of about over 3 million jobs in the United States.'
That level of job loss, he said, 'falls in the category of a very significant recession.'
When asked about the Permian Basin specifically, Perryman was clear: 'It kind of cuts across the board. The Permian has historically been counter-cyclical because we benefit when oil prices are high. But steel tariffs hit oil and gas directly. So yes, we will be impacted.'
The timeline for the impact varies. Grocery prices could rise almost immediately, especially for produce imported from Mexico. Industrial effects, like those in oil and gas, could take longer to materialize but would grow over time if the tariffs are not rolled back.
Despite criticism, Trump has stood firm. The White House insists that reciprocal tariffs are necessary to protect national sovereignty, bolster the defense-industrial base, and force trading partners to offer the same terms they demand from the U.S.
'This is the Golden Rule for Our Golden Age,' the administration said in a statement. 'Treat us like we treat you.'
Perryman isn't convinced. 'The basic economic logic that says tariffs are a bad idea was developed in 1811, and it's never been contradicted,' he said. 'We've modeled trade deals for decades, including NAFTA and USMCA. They brought broad benefits to the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. What we're seeing now… is potentially very disruptive.'
The biggest unknown is duration. 'If the tariffs are sustained for several years, the damage will be significant,' Perryman said. 'But I suspect we'll start to see some walk-backs, especially as economic data rolls in and political pressure mounts.'
Until then, West Texas families, workers, and energy producers are bracing for impact.
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