Potential flash flooding: Shenandoah Valley may get 3 to 4 inches of rain

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Earlier today, the National Weather Service issued a flood watch for a widespread area, which includes Augusta County and the Shenandoah Valley. From 2 p.m. this afternoon through this evening, excessive runoff from heavy rain may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded.
Showers are likely with scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The flood watch said some thunderstorms will contain heavy rainfall, with rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches in an hour or two.
"Certainly, the potential is there," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tom Kines. "There is no doubt about that for some heavy rainfall. The big question is where it's going to happen. That's kind of the case today. I think, while heavy rain is a possibility statewide, I would think the highest threat area is probably from the D.C. area down to Roanoke and areas west of there which includes the Shenandoah Valley."
Kine forecasts it'll hit our area sometime in the second half of the afternoon into the nighttime hours.
"It's exceptionally humid, theres a lot of moisture in the atmosphere," said Kines. "Any thunderstorm that pops up this afternoon is possible of bringing an inch or two of rain."
The National Weather Service flood watch said that storms may also train over the same areas causing the possibility of locally higher amounts around 3 to 5 inches.
"It's not out of the question some areas can pick up 3-4 inches," said Kines. "I don't think it's going to widespread area. I would think the most likely candidates are areas farther to the north. You get up into Winchester and Front Royal, I think, they're probably the most likely candidates."
While he can't rule it out, an isolated tornado is less likely, says Kine.
"I think the main threat is going to be heavy rain and maybe some gusty winds."
Heavy rain in a short period of time may cause rapid rises in creeks and streams as well as potential flash flooding in urban areas, per the National Weather Service. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
The wet weather is expected to continue, but a pattern change marked by building heat is on the way, said AccuWeather. Here's what to expect:
Stormy pattern persists through mid-June: The Northeast and parts of the Midwest will continue to experience rounds of showers and thunderstorms for the next five to seven days. High humidity and saturated soils are contributing to localized flash flooding, especially in urban areas and along small streams.
Rainfall totals far exceed historical averages: Since May 1, much of the region has recorded 150–200% of historical average rainfall. The persistently wet conditions have delayed agricultural, landscaping and construction operations and created challenges for outdoor business activity.
Flash flood risk with intense afternoon storms: Most storm activity is expected from mid-afternoon to evening, with isolated severe thunderstorms producing damaging wind gusts, lightning and downpours. Not every day will bring rain, but when it falls, it may be intense and prolonged.
Significant heat wave looms late June: By late next week, a dome of heat from the central U.S. is expected to expand toward the Northeast. Widespread highs in the 90s are likely, particularly along the I-95 corridor. Combined with humidity, AccuWeather RealFeel temperatures may exceed 100 degrees.
Business impacts: Watch for delays, power strain and health risks: Outdoor operations may continue to face weather-related delays through mid-June due to rain and flooding. As heat intensifies later in the month, expect increased energy demand, potential cooling costs and elevated health risks for outdoor workers and sensitive populations. Planning for both short-term storm disruption and long-term heat mitigation will be essential.
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Afternoon thunderstorms in hot and humid weather come summertime is something we have come to expect. We get flood and thunderstorm watches from the National Weather Service to help us prepare and be safe. By the time a severe thunderstorm warning banner appears on your smartphone (that is, if you have notifications turned on), it can be too late to do much of anything if you happen to be outside on the road driving. Hence, the value of the watches to help you plan out your day.
https://data.newsleader.com/severe-weather-alerts-warnings-watches/
A flood watch and a flood warning are two different things. Here's the difference.
A flood watch indicates that the conditions are favorable to flooding in an area that is under a watch. These flood watches are usually issued hours and even days ahead of the weather event that could cause the flooding.
A flood warning means that the flooding that could be harmful and poses a serious threat to property and people is expected. This too can be issued hours and days ahead of time based on forecast predictions.
Anytime flooding is a risk people should use caution. Water levels can change rapidly during periods of heavy rainfall.
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Monique Calello is a reporter at The News Leader. Story ideas always welcome. Connect with her at [e-mail]. Support local journalism and subscribe to us at newsleader.com.
This article originally appeared on Staunton News Leader: Flash flooding alert: Shenandoah Valley to get 3 to 4 inches rainfall