JPMorgan Drops US Recession Call After US-China Trade Truce
JPMorgan Chase & Co. boosted its forecast for US economic growth after a temporary trade deal between the US and China, dropping its earlier call that the world's largest economy would sink into a recession in 2025.
'The administration's recent dialing down of some of the more draconian tariffs placed on China should reduce the risk that the US economy slips into recession this year,' JPMorgan Chief US Economist Michael Feroli said Tuesday in a note. 'We believe recession risks are still elevated, but now below 50%.'
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
38 minutes ago
- Yahoo
China's AI chip tool QiMeng beats engineers, designs processors in just days
As the US-China tech war intensifies, both nations are racing to secure independence in critical technologies. With Washington tightening access to advanced chip tools, Beijing is ramping up efforts to break its reliance on Western software. In a major step, China's top scientific body has unveiled a homegrown, AI-powered system to automate chip design, an area long dominated by American firms. The Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) has launched an AI-driven chip design platform called QiMeng, meaning 'enlightenment' in Chinese. Developed by the State Key Laboratory of Processor, the Intelligent Software Research Centre, and the University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the system aims to accelerate semiconductor development and reduce dependency on human programmers. QiMeng leverages large language models to automate complex chip design tasks. The developers open-sourced the system on GitHub and published detailed technical documentation in a recent research paper. The team added that an autonomous-driving chip, which would take human engineers weeks to complete, could be produced by QiMeng in just a few days. QiMeng is built around three functional layers. The foundation is a domain-specific processor chip model. Above that is a design agent that handles both hardware and software aspects. The top layer contains various chip design applications. These components work together to support automated front-end design, generation of hardware description language, OS configuration, and compiler toolchain creation. The research paper notes that future iterations will boost the system's capacity for self-evolution. Using the platform, researchers have built two processors: QiMeng-CPU-v1, which is comparable to Intel's 486 chip, and QiMeng-CPU-v2, which aligns with Arm's Cortex A53. The launch of QiMeng comes at a time when the US is pressuring major electronic design automation (EDA) software vendors to stop selling to Chinese firms. Companies like Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens EDA, who together held 82% of China's EDA market last year, have been hit by fresh export restrictions from the US Commerce Department, according to a Morgan Stanley report cited by SCMP. QiMeng is a direct attempt to replace reliance on these Western firms. 'The goal was to improve efficiency, reduce costs and shorten development cycles when compared to manual methods,' said the CAS team in their paper. The system also aims to enable rapid customisation of domain-specific chip architectures and software stacks. As AI advances demand more powerful chips, China's ability to design and fabricate them locally becomes crucial. While the country still lags behind Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company in advanced chip fabrication, efforts like QiMeng are intended to close the gap in design capabilities. The developers acknowledged remaining hurdles, citing 'constrained fabrication technology, limited resources and a diverse ecosystem.' Still, they hope QiMeng will help automate the full chip design and verification process in the long run.
Yahoo
39 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq edge higher amid renewed tariff threats, Boeing stock slumps
US stocks edged higher on Thursday as more data showed milder inflation pressures, even as President Trump renewed his threat to impose "take it or leave it" tariffs on trading partners. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) hovered just above the flatline, as component Boeing (BA) slumped in the wake of a deadly plane crash in India. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained roughly 0.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also rose about 0.2%. Stocks edged higher after the S&P 500 (^GSPC) snapped this week's run of wins. Investors are adding growing tensions in the Middle East to worries over Trump's trade policy, such as the fragility of the US-China detente. The US dollar sank to its lowest level in three years as fresh price data showed a so-far mild impact from Trump's tariff policies, as wholesale inflation increased less than economists expected. The report came after the consumer counterpart showed an easing in price pressures in the wake of Trump's "reciprocal" tariff hikes in April. Further hints that tariffs are sparing inflation could put the Federal Reserve in a tight spot ahead of its policy meeting next week. Bets on interest-rate cuts this year have mounted, but analysts expect officials to maintain their wait-and-see approach to economic data and policy decisions, with September seen as the most likely spot to resume rate cuts. While investor focus is shifting back to the Fed, Wall Street is still closely following the latest twists and turns in Trump's tariff policy in the hunt for clarity. Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs US trading partners will get letters within a week or two to set their unilateral tariff rates, Trump reiterated on Wednesday, renewing the threat of no-deal hikes. But Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Congress it's "highly likely" that countries in trade negotiations with the US will see an extension of the 90-day tariff pause, currently set to expire July 9. The US dollar ( sank to its lowest level in three years after the Producer Price Index came in below expectations, showing a milder than expected impact from shifting US trade policy. The dollar against a basket of currencies hovered below 98, its lowest level since 2022. Year to date, the index is down more than 9%. Investors sold greenbacks as tensions between Iran and Israel escalated and Trump renewed tariff threats against US trading partners. US wholesale prices rose modestly last month, a sign that inflationary pressures remain contained. Wednesday's CPI report also pointed to contained inflation, increasing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Yahoo Finance's Laura Bratton reports: Read more here. Oracle (ORCL) shares jumped 10% early Thursday after the company's fiscal fourth quarter results topped Wall Street's expectations. Oracle's adjusted revenue of $15.9 billion was ahead of the projected $15.6 billion, while its earnings per share of $1.70 surpassed the expected $1.64. The company raised its annual revenue forecast, as it expects strong demand for its AI-related cloud services. "What is clear is that more customers will use the Oracle database to leverage AI," CEO Safra Ada Catz told analysts in a call after the market close Wednesday. "It's been a long wait for people who own the stock because ... they [Oracle] missed the last two quarters, both on the top and the bottom line, despite the fact that they were booking an enormous amount of business," Citizens head of technology equity research Pat Walravens told Yahoo Finance's Julie Hyman on Market Domination Overtime. Analysts at UBS, Cantor Fitzgerald, Deutsche Bank, KeyBanc, and Melius Research raised their price targets on the stock to as high as $240 on Thursday. US stocks pulled back on Thursday as President Trump renewed his threat to impose "take it or leave it" tariffs on trading partners, while Boeing (BA) shares sank in the wake of a deadly crash in India. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell roughly 0.4%, with component Boeing slumping after the crash of an Air India flight involving a Dreamliner jet. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped 0.3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also moved 0.3% lower. US trading partners will get letters soon within a week or two that will set their unilateral tariff rates, Trump reiterated on Wednesday. Weekly claims for unemployment benefits remained at their highest level in eight months during the first full week of June while the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance on an ongoing basis reached the highest level since November 2021 as the US labor market continues to show signs of slowing. Data from the Department of Labor released Thursday morning showed 248,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the week ending June 7, flat from the week prior and above economists' expectations for 242,000. Meanwhile, 1.956 million continuing claims were filed, up from 1.902 million the week prior and the highest level seen since November 2021. Economists see an increase in continuing claims as a sign that those out of work are taking longer to find new jobs. Chime is set to debut on the Nasdaq later today under the ticker symbol CHYM. The digital bank raised $864 million in its IPO, and priced shares at $27 each for a valuation of $11.6 billion. Chime's entrance in the public markets has been viewed as another indicator of whether the IPO market is thawing after a freeze due to tariff-induced uncertainty. Other recent go-publics, like stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) and Nvidia-backed CoreWeave (CRWV), saw massive rallies after their IPOs. As my colleague Josh Schafer wrote yesterday, the largest tech stocks are once again leading the market higher, and that enthusiasm has trickled down to newly issued public offerings. In a June 9 research report, Carson Group associate portfolio manager Blake Anderson found that tech IPOs have been outperforming non-tech IPOs, with shares tied to tech IPOs rising an average of 108% from their deal price. Beyond Chime, other closely watched IPO hopefuls in the pipeline include crypto exchange Gemini; buy now, pay later firm Klarna ( AI chipmaker Cerebras ( and medical supplies company Medline. Read more here about the details of Chime's IPO. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. President Trump's Truth Social posts aren't moving markets like they used to, notes Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer. Stocks barely budged as he posted on Wednesday that a US-China deal was "done" — something that would have swung markets around a month earlier. Instead, stocks found their direction from economic data, Josh reports: Read more here from today's Morning Brief. The dollar (DX=F) fell further on Thursday as concerns grew about US tariffs after President Trump said he would soon tell trading partners about unilateral levies. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Boeing stock fell on Thursday by 8% in premarket trading after an Air India aircraft carrying over 200 people crashed minutes after taking off from the western Indian city of Ahmedabad. Aviation tracking site Flightradar24 said the plane was a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, one of the most modern passenger aircraft in service. Air India confirmed the plane, which was headed to Gatwick Airport in the UK, crashed in a civilian area near the airport, but has not specified if there are any fatalities. It is still not clear what caused the crash. According to Reuters, Boeing confirmed it was aware of the crash and was working to gather more information. The news comes as the planemaker is trying to rebuild trust relating to the safety of its jets and increase production under new Chief Executive Officer Kelly Orthberg. "There's revised fears of the problems that plagued Boeing aircraft and Boeing itself in recent years," said Chris Beauchamp, analyst at IG Group. Economic data: Producer Price Index (May); Initial jobless claims (week ending June 7) Continuing claims (week ending May 31) Earnings: Adobe (ADBE), Lovesac (LOVE), RH (RH) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: Boeing stock slides after plane crashes in India The $11 trillion gap in costing Trump's 'big, beautiful' bill Gundlach: 'Reckoning is coming' for US debt Trump says he will set unilateral tariff rates within weeks Americans flunk on retirement literacy. Here's why it matters. Nvidia, Samsung to take stakes in robot AI startup Skild US long-dated debt faces crucial test in $22 billion auction Oracle stock jumps as AI boosts revenue forecast Here are some top stocks trending on Yahoo Finance in premarket trading: Oracle (ORCL) stock rose 8% in premarket trading on Thursday after the tech company raised its annual forecast, driven by demand for its AI related cloud services. "Oracle's once-stodgy image levels up to 'cloud-native mage,' and the competitive map now looks less like a classic three-player real time strategy and more like a battle-royale with everyone dropping in, looking for compute loot", said Michael Ashley Schulman, partner at Running Point Capital Advisors. GameStop (GME) shares slumped on Thursday by 11% after announcing a convertible notes offering. The press release said: "GameStop intends to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, including making investments in a manner consistent with GameStop's Investment Policy and potential acquisitions." Boeing (BA) stock fell 8% before the bell on Thursday after a plane crashed in India, with more than 200 people on board, near the airport in the country's western city of Ahmedabad. The plane, which was headed to Gatwick airport in the UK, crashed in a civilian area. Oil prices pulled back early Thursday morning, reversing earlier overnight gains as traders assessed a US decision to pull some diplomats out of the Middle East. The decision to reduce staffing in Iraq came after Iran threatened to hit US assets in the region ahead of its talks with the US over nuclear-related activity. Brent crude futures fell to under $69 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude traded below $68 a barrel — both down around 1%. Prices jumped over 4% on Wednesday amid reports of a potential evacuation. Reuters reports: Read more here. Gold (GC=F) rose for a second day in a row as tensions in the Middle East, coupled with Trump's claims of upcoming unilateral tariffs, pushed risk-averse investors toward the haven commodity. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. The US dollar ( sank to its lowest level in three years after the Producer Price Index came in below expectations, showing a milder than expected impact from shifting US trade policy. The dollar against a basket of currencies hovered below 98, its lowest level since 2022. Year to date, the index is down more than 9%. Investors sold greenbacks as tensions between Iran and Israel escalated and Trump renewed tariff threats against US trading partners. US wholesale prices rose modestly last month, a sign that inflationary pressures remain contained. Wednesday's CPI report also pointed to contained inflation, increasing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Yahoo Finance's Laura Bratton reports: Read more here. Oracle (ORCL) shares jumped 10% early Thursday after the company's fiscal fourth quarter results topped Wall Street's expectations. Oracle's adjusted revenue of $15.9 billion was ahead of the projected $15.6 billion, while its earnings per share of $1.70 surpassed the expected $1.64. The company raised its annual revenue forecast, as it expects strong demand for its AI-related cloud services. "What is clear is that more customers will use the Oracle database to leverage AI," CEO Safra Ada Catz told analysts in a call after the market close Wednesday. "It's been a long wait for people who own the stock because ... they [Oracle] missed the last two quarters, both on the top and the bottom line, despite the fact that they were booking an enormous amount of business," Citizens head of technology equity research Pat Walravens told Yahoo Finance's Julie Hyman on Market Domination Overtime. Analysts at UBS, Cantor Fitzgerald, Deutsche Bank, KeyBanc, and Melius Research raised their price targets on the stock to as high as $240 on Thursday. US stocks pulled back on Thursday as President Trump renewed his threat to impose "take it or leave it" tariffs on trading partners, while Boeing (BA) shares sank in the wake of a deadly crash in India. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell roughly 0.4%, with component Boeing slumping after the crash of an Air India flight involving a Dreamliner jet. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped 0.3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also moved 0.3% lower. US trading partners will get letters soon within a week or two that will set their unilateral tariff rates, Trump reiterated on Wednesday. Weekly claims for unemployment benefits remained at their highest level in eight months during the first full week of June while the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance on an ongoing basis reached the highest level since November 2021 as the US labor market continues to show signs of slowing. Data from the Department of Labor released Thursday morning showed 248,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the week ending June 7, flat from the week prior and above economists' expectations for 242,000. Meanwhile, 1.956 million continuing claims were filed, up from 1.902 million the week prior and the highest level seen since November 2021. Economists see an increase in continuing claims as a sign that those out of work are taking longer to find new jobs. Chime is set to debut on the Nasdaq later today under the ticker symbol CHYM. The digital bank raised $864 million in its IPO, and priced shares at $27 each for a valuation of $11.6 billion. Chime's entrance in the public markets has been viewed as another indicator of whether the IPO market is thawing after a freeze due to tariff-induced uncertainty. Other recent go-publics, like stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) and Nvidia-backed CoreWeave (CRWV), saw massive rallies after their IPOs. As my colleague Josh Schafer wrote yesterday, the largest tech stocks are once again leading the market higher, and that enthusiasm has trickled down to newly issued public offerings. In a June 9 research report, Carson Group associate portfolio manager Blake Anderson found that tech IPOs have been outperforming non-tech IPOs, with shares tied to tech IPOs rising an average of 108% from their deal price. Beyond Chime, other closely watched IPO hopefuls in the pipeline include crypto exchange Gemini; buy now, pay later firm Klarna ( AI chipmaker Cerebras ( and medical supplies company Medline. Read more here about the details of Chime's IPO. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. President Trump's Truth Social posts aren't moving markets like they used to, notes Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer. Stocks barely budged as he posted on Wednesday that a US-China deal was "done" — something that would have swung markets around a month earlier. Instead, stocks found their direction from economic data, Josh reports: Read more here from today's Morning Brief. The dollar (DX=F) fell further on Thursday as concerns grew about US tariffs after President Trump said he would soon tell trading partners about unilateral levies. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Boeing stock fell on Thursday by 8% in premarket trading after an Air India aircraft carrying over 200 people crashed minutes after taking off from the western Indian city of Ahmedabad. Aviation tracking site Flightradar24 said the plane was a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, one of the most modern passenger aircraft in service. Air India confirmed the plane, which was headed to Gatwick Airport in the UK, crashed in a civilian area near the airport, but has not specified if there are any fatalities. It is still not clear what caused the crash. According to Reuters, Boeing confirmed it was aware of the crash and was working to gather more information. The news comes as the planemaker is trying to rebuild trust relating to the safety of its jets and increase production under new Chief Executive Officer Kelly Orthberg. "There's revised fears of the problems that plagued Boeing aircraft and Boeing itself in recent years," said Chris Beauchamp, analyst at IG Group. Economic data: Producer Price Index (May); Initial jobless claims (week ending June 7) Continuing claims (week ending May 31) Earnings: Adobe (ADBE), Lovesac (LOVE), RH (RH) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: Boeing stock slides after plane crashes in India The $11 trillion gap in costing Trump's 'big, beautiful' bill Gundlach: 'Reckoning is coming' for US debt Trump says he will set unilateral tariff rates within weeks Americans flunk on retirement literacy. Here's why it matters. Nvidia, Samsung to take stakes in robot AI startup Skild US long-dated debt faces crucial test in $22 billion auction Oracle stock jumps as AI boosts revenue forecast Here are some top stocks trending on Yahoo Finance in premarket trading: Oracle (ORCL) stock rose 8% in premarket trading on Thursday after the tech company raised its annual forecast, driven by demand for its AI related cloud services. "Oracle's once-stodgy image levels up to 'cloud-native mage,' and the competitive map now looks less like a classic three-player real time strategy and more like a battle-royale with everyone dropping in, looking for compute loot", said Michael Ashley Schulman, partner at Running Point Capital Advisors. GameStop (GME) shares slumped on Thursday by 11% after announcing a convertible notes offering. The press release said: "GameStop intends to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, including making investments in a manner consistent with GameStop's Investment Policy and potential acquisitions." Boeing (BA) stock fell 8% before the bell on Thursday after a plane crashed in India, with more than 200 people on board, near the airport in the country's western city of Ahmedabad. The plane, which was headed to Gatwick airport in the UK, crashed in a civilian area. Oil prices pulled back early Thursday morning, reversing earlier overnight gains as traders assessed a US decision to pull some diplomats out of the Middle East. The decision to reduce staffing in Iraq came after Iran threatened to hit US assets in the region ahead of its talks with the US over nuclear-related activity. Brent crude futures fell to under $69 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude traded below $68 a barrel — both down around 1%. Prices jumped over 4% on Wednesday amid reports of a potential evacuation. Reuters reports: Read more here. Gold (GC=F) rose for a second day in a row as tensions in the Middle East, coupled with Trump's claims of upcoming unilateral tariffs, pushed risk-averse investors toward the haven commodity. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
China strikes cautious tone after Trump claims trade deal is 'done'
China will "always honour its commitments" when it comes to negotiating trade disagreements with the US, according to a spokesperson for the Chinese government. But when pushed by Sky News, he refrained from confirming what those commitments are. The reluctance is at odds with President Trump, who declared on his Truth Social account on Wednesday that "our deal with China is done", while also claiming that China has agreed to supply rare earth metals to the US "upfront", and to a 55% tariff rate on its goods. The comments follow high-stakes talks between delegations from the two countries in London aimed at stabilising the relationship amid an escalating trade and supply chain war. China's refusal to confirm these details has raised speculation that, contrary to what the US side is claiming, there may still be significant disagreements and some details yet to be worked out. The continued silence comes after two days of negotiations between delegations from the US and China in the UK. While both sides confirmed that they had agreed a "framework" to implement the "consensus" reached at previous talks in Geneva last month, as well as during a phone call between President Xi and President Trump on 5 June, the delegations were supposed to be taking the agreement to their respective leaders for sign-off. When asked by Sky News if any of the details in Trump's Truth Social post reflected what China understood to be in the deal, Lin Jian, China's foreign ministry spokesperson, said "the two sides achieved new progress in addressing the concerns on economic and trade issues". "We always honour our commitments. Since we've reached common understandings, the two sides need to follow them." 👉 Follow Trump100 on your podcast app 👈 When pushed by Sky News on whether China agrees with Trump's Truth Social assessment that the US-China relationship is "excellent", Lin declined to agree, saying simply: "Our position on relations with the United States has been consistent and clear." Such lukewarm language is not uncommon in China but there will likely be significant displeasure at the way Trump is unilaterally publishing details that may not yet have been officially signed off. It is in stark contrast to China's communication landscape which is highly scripted and controlled, and if it was designed to force China into an agreement it could well backfire. Indeed, if everything in Trump's Truth Social post is true it would represent quite a coup for the US, and that feels a little unlikely given the valuable bargaining chips China has, particularly over rare earth metals. This will likely have been a crunch point in negotiations. China has the vast majority of the world's rare earth metals which are vital in the production of everything from cars to weaponry, and recent export controls imposed in response to Trump's tariffs have brought some production lines to the brink of standstill. In response, the Trump administration imposed extra export controls on high-tech chips, chip development technology and parts needed to make jet engines, as well as moving to revoke student visas for Chinese nationals. Read more from Sky News: President Trump indicated in his Truth Social post that the measures to revoke visas will be rowed back. When pushed by Sky News, Lin refrained from commenting on whether Trump's communications on this matter have undermined the relationship more broadly, but the stakes remain enormously high, with the unfolding supply chain war set to do significant damage to the economies of both nations.
