Chinese trader made RM7b on gold builds a giant bet on copper

Malaysian Reserve

2 days ago

Massive copper position defies trade war fears and market pullback
A RECLUSIVE Chinese billionaire whose prescient gold trades turned into an eye-catching windfall has now become China's biggest copper bull, amassing a bet worth nearly US$1 billion (RM4.44 billion) in a market jolted by escalating competition between the US and China.
Bian Ximing, who made an early fortune in plastic tubes before seeking a quiet life in Gibraltar, has made waves over the last two years with his investment in Chinese gold futures, betting on what he argued would be a global effort to reduce reliance on the dollar and counter inflation worries. His fund came in just as bullion was beginning a record-breaking ascent and made roughly US$1.5 billion in profit in the process, according to Bloomberg calculations.
As trade war and potential truce roil markets, Bian and his brokerage, Zhongcai Futures Co (Zhongcai), are responsible for the largest net long position in copper contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), according to people familiar with the matter and bourse data. After 10 months of purchases, on May 16 they were long nearly 90,000 tons in copper futures, counting Bian's own investment and funds he manages through Zhongcai — enough to dwarf any peers.
It's a position that the 61-year-old tycoon, who personally accounts for the lion's share of the Zhongcai investment, intends to maintain, the people said, even after geopolitical ructions prompted some of his investors to pull out — an expression of confidence in the metal and in the economy of the world's largest consumer. The people asked not to be named as company discussions are private.
'It's a quite unique copper position that is worth following,' said Li Yiyao, a vice president of Cofco Futures Co's Shanghai North Bund division. 'It reflects a ver y long-term, bullish sentiment on the metal based on fundamentals which differs from the usual mid
or short-term strategies we see in the market.' She added that Bian's counterintuitive moves during the worst of the trade turmoil, standing firm as many others exited, were particularly remarkable.
A handful of larger-than-life figures have dominated Chinese commodities trading since the economic boom began two decades ago, transforming the industry. Bian ranks alongside Xiang Guangda, founder of nickel pioneer Tsingshan Holding Group (Tsingshan), or magnates like He Jinbi, the missing founder of Maike Metals International Co Ltd (Maike) and Ge Weidong, founder of Shanghai Chaos Investment Group Co Ltd (Shanghai Chaos), one of the earliest commodities-focused hedge funds in China.
Though his methodolog y has differed from that of traditional physical traders, his rivals and managers describe the austere Bian as having a deep understanding of a market that has become increasingly difficult to read for those outside China.
The billionaire, described by those who know him as unassuming and direct, has also stood out for his seclusion, running his team of Chinese managers and the brokerage he took over two decades ago via video call from the southern tip of the Iberian Peninsula. Since moving from eastern China more than a decade ago, attracted by warmer weather and proximity to
European assets, Bian makes few trips home to visit his investment team and factories.
That hasn't stopped him from garnering a loyal following in China for his Warren Buffett-like online musings on investment philosophy, keenly parsed by anyone eager to emulate a strategy closer to that of a traditional western hedge fund than the more speculative approach of homegrown traders.
A good investor must 'let go of his own ego and be less obsessed and then choose the right targets and be stubborn,' Bian wrote in one of his periodic posts in January. 'When choosing targets, focus on trends. When implementing projects, focus on timing. When maintaining projects, focus on costs.'
His lieutenants occasionally write up their own 'reflections' on the company site.
Bian declined to comment for this story. Zhongcai did not respond to emailed queries. Bloomberg used bourse data and conversations with multiple business associates, rivals and other traders to build a picture of his operations and trading.
Bian isn't alone in seeing an upward trajectory for copper, an industrial metal vital for the electrification of the world. The longterm dynamics of the energy transition and limited mine supply have long been highlighted by bulls. Commodity traders in the last few months have been chasing gains from Trump's copper tariff threat, which has drawn cargoes to US warehouses and left the rest of the world short. Mercuria Energy Group Ltd's (Mercuria) metals boss Kostas Bintas, one of the more outspoken boosters, suggested in March that copper could reach US$12,000 or US$13,000 a ton, well above previous records and current levels closer to US$9,500.
Still, a more volatile market has made the metal's next move hard to predict, while prices at historically high levels are also testing the resilience of large physical consumers in China.
Bian has been in and out of copper before. He held short positions through much of 2024, even as the rest of the world took a rosier view of the Chinese economy. Just before the US election in November, he began a switch to an emphatic long position, in anticipation of a Trump victory that could prompt investment in local manufacturing and of Chinese economic stimulus efforts.
He accelerated his purchases from early January, for his own investment and with managed funds, with Zhongcai Holding Ltd reaching a peak near 40,000 lots, or 200,000 tons of the metal, in early April, before Trump began his escalation of tariffs, exchange data shows. He later moved some of the brokerage's positions to CME Group's Comex (CME Group), to capture US turbulence, two of the people familiar with his investments said. As at the end of April, Zhongcai's copper bet generated a total profit of around US$200 million, according to the Bloomberg's calculation.
Bian has concentrated his bets in Shanghai, a move that ultimately proved lucky. When copper prices briefly tumbled amid tariff uncertainties last month, Chinese markets were closed for a national holiday, sparing Bian and other Shanghai-based traders from the selloff and rebound.
Some of his investors have backed out since then, two of the people said, rattled by the trade war and fears of a global recession.
But Bian has increased his own long positions in copper in the past month in Shanghai and beyond, telling backers that he sees economic resilience in China and a continued rise for the metal. Rival traders say his is also a bet on China's shift to a higher-tech and so copper-hungry — economy, and on the ample liquidity to support it.
The position 'is not big enough to distort the market, but it does provide a rare insight into Bian's strategy,'' said Jia Zheng, head of trading at Shanghai Soochow Jiuying Investment Management Co. 'People in the market have been tracking his gold and copper trades closely.'
Born in 1963, in the aftermath of China's brutal Great Leap Forward modernisation campaign, Bian grew up in Zhuji, a township in the eastern Chinese province of Zhejiang. Mao Zedong's Cultural Revolution interrupted his education, but he ultimately graduated from a vocational school affiliated with the central bank in 1985.
In 1995, as China was about to set off on its upward trajectory, he founded a factory making highend plastic tubes. Like many of his peers, he then rode a wave of massive economic transformation, building up an empire ranging from construction material to financial services and property, with units in the US, UK and Hong Kong (HK) and factories in India. He purchased the futures broker that became Zhongcai in Shanghai in 2003, naming it after his holding company Zhongcai Merchants Investment Group Co. Other investments include a major stake in the movie-making arm of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (Alibaba Group).
During his early years in chemical derivatives and plastics, Bian was already famous for his independent trading strategies when it was more common for others to work together to squeeze out rivals holding opposing positions.
Not everything has gone to plan for Bian. The same flight to safety that has buoyed his gold positions has also hurt his equity and local municipal bond investments, people familiar with his holdings said, generating some losses.
'There are traps and opportunities everywhere — opportunities in risks and traps in opportunities,' Bian wrote in a blog post from last year. 'Investment is essentially a game of survival.' — Bloomberg
This article first appeared in The Malaysian Reserve weekly print edition