To understand the Josh Allen-Lamar Jackson MVP vote, look to … Nikola Jokić?
(Editor's note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando's Pick Six of Feb. 10, 2025.)
A call came in from a veteran NFL executive after the Pick Six column from Dec. 2 explained why Jackson looked like the best MVP candidate with roughly a month remaining in the regular season.
The betting odds had shifted in Allen's favor as the players' statistics came into closer alignment for a stretch. Jackson would later rally, and when he was named the first-team All-Pro QB over Allen, that seemed to signal Jackson was in line for his third MVP.
Bills QB Josh Allen wins AP NFL MVP after finishing second to Lamar Jackson in All-Pro voting. Allen is third player to win MVP after not making first-team All-Pro. Steve McNair shared 2003 MVP with Peyton Manning after Manning was the All-Pro and John Elway beat out #49ers Jerry…
— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) February 7, 2025
When Allen won the award, that December conversation with the NFL executive came to mind. The exec had theorized that Jackson's candidacy would suffer because he had already won MVP honors twice without enjoying much playoff success.
'Jokić ran into the same problem when he was the best player in the league, but he was not winning playoff games,' the exec said.
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Jokić was the NBA's MVP for the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons. He finished second in 2022-23, but when his Denver Nuggets won a championship after that season, Jokić reemerged as the MVP in 2023-24.
'As Jokić went into that third (potential MVP) season, it felt like, if he doesn't have accomplishments in the playoffs, no matter how good he is playing in the regular season, we are not going to let him be an MVP,' the exec said.
This line of thinking did not make sense to me. I saw my job as analyzing how players performed during the 2024 regular season. While I thought Allen was a solid choice, I voted for Jackson as my first-team All-Pro QB and as the MVP, for reasons laid out here.
'Your statistical analysis is right on,' the exec said, 'but at a certain point, if you do not deliver in the postseason when you have been an MVP in the regular season, it somewhat disqualifies you until you have had that success.'
Seven voters named Jackson as their first-team All-Pro QB while listing Allen as their MVP. That swung the results for Allen. He's a worthy candidate, but the logic behind some voters' choices still does not compute for me.
(Photo of Lamar Jackson, left, and Josh Allen: Al Bello / Getty Images)
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