Chances rise for two new tropical depressions in the Atlantic to form soon

Miami Herald

6 hours ago

As Erin chugs its way up the Southeastern seaboard, forecasters are eyeing two other tropical disturbances in line behind it in the Atlantic.
For now, neither appears set to pose a threat to the Caribbean or the U.S.
As of the 8 a.m. Wednesday update, the National Hurricane Center gave the closer tropical wave a 60% chance of forming a tropical depression in the next seven days and a 10% chance of developing in the next two days — unchanged numbers from Monday.
Forecasters said the disorganized tropical wave is likely to pull together into a tropical depression near or just north of the easternmost Caribbean islands. Long-range computer models suggest this system could follow a similar northern curve out to sea that Erin did, away from occupied land.
The farther tropical disturbance saw a slight bump in its formation chances Wednesday morning, to a 40% chance in the next two to seven days. The hurricane center tagged this one as an 'invest' on Tuesday, kicking off heightened scrutiny of the system.
Forecasters said there's a small pocket of storm-friendly conditions this wave could encounter in the next few days, which could allow a 'short-lived tropical depression' time to form — and then potentially dissolve.
The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore posted on X Wednesday that time is running out for this system as storm-shredding shear is set to kick in soon.
'We will know what this will become before the weekend even starts as its shelf life is slipping away,' he wrote.
Hurricane Erin, a Category 2, continued its northern path along the Southeastern coast on Wednesday morning.
Florida's worst impacts — deadly rip currents, rough boat conditions and high waves that surfers are excited about — are in effect through at least Friday. Erin's massive wind field means that rough surf is expected from Palm Beach all the way to the Northeast for the next few days.
Most of North Carolina's coast remained under a tropical storm warning and some portions were under a storm surge warning, as Hurricane Erin is expected to slosh the state's barrier islands with up to 4 feet of water. The Outer Banks were evacuated in advance of the storm.
Parts of Virginia's coast — as well as Bermuda — were under tropical storm watches as well.
The hurricane center said Erin is expected to run out of warm water soon and begin to slowly lose strength as it curves north into the frigid waters near Nova Scotia. By Monday, it should be down to a tropical storm once again.