Fertiliser stocks rally up to 18%; Deepak, Paradeep hit new highs

Business Standard

2 days ago

Shares of fertiliser companies were in demand and rallied up to 18 per cent on the BSE in Tuesday's intra-day trade amid heavy volumes, in an otherwise weak market.
Fertilizers and Chemicals Travancore soared 18 per cent to ₹1,048 apiece, National Fertilizers rallied 9 per cent to ₹109.94, followed by Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers (RCF) (up 8 per cent at ₹164.20), Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corporation (8 per cent at ₹1,594.10), Madras Fertilizers (6 per cent at ₹97.45) and Paradeep Phosphates (4 per cent at ₹183.50).
Of these, Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corporation and Paradeep Phosphates have hit their respective all-time highs today. In comparison, the BSE Sensex was down 0.7 per cent or 552 points at 80,822 at 02:24 PM.
The performance of the fertiliser sector remains vulnerable to the vagaries of the monsoon as a sizeable portion of the arable land depends on the monsoons for irrigation. The performance of the fertiliser sector also remains vulnerable to the timely release of subsidies by the Government of India (GoI), as significant delays would increase the working capital borrowings and the associated interest costs.
Early monsoon onset
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted an early onset of the monsoon along with above-normal rainfall for the 2025 season.
The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of 4 per cent, indicating that above normal rainfall is most likely over the country as a whole during the monsoon season (June to September), 2025, IMD stated.
Global triggers
Meanwhile, the European Parliament approved a bill to raise tariffs on fertilisers and agricultural imports from Russia and Belarus.
According to a CNBC TV18 report, the new policy will gradually increase tariffs on certain fertilisers from the current 6.5 per cent to nearly 100 per cent by 2028, effectively curbing imports from these two major suppliers. Additionally, a 50 per cent duty will be imposed on select agricultural products from the same region. The bill is expected to be enacted in July 2025, with phased implementation over the next three years. This move may potentially redirect global demand towards Indian manufacturers, the report stated.
Urea demand remains intact
Meanwhile, there is a favourable demand-supply scenario of urea in India. The import dependence for urea remains in the range of 20-25 per cent, given the inadequate domestic capacity. The demand for urea remains intact because of a significant price differential between urea and non-urea fertilisers. The demand is expected to grow at a stable rate of 1-3 per cent in the near to medium term, backed by a healthy monsoon and strong farmer demand, according to rating agency ICRA.
According to Elara Capital, Rock phosphate, a key raw material used in the manufacturing of phosphoric acid, has seen a price increase in the range of 10-20 per cent in the past month. This price rise has been across geographies, including Jordan, Morocco, Togo, and Egypt. The increase in rock phosphate price was driven by the rise in the price of phosphoric acid, which was up ~10 per cent to USD 1153/tonne in April vs the last revision of USD 1060 in January.
The brokerage firm expects the spread on phosphoric acid production to reduce by 25-30 per cent for manufacturers in India in H1FY26E. Lower backwards integration spread is likely to put pressure on Ebitda of fertiliser companies in H1FY26.
A 45 per cent increase in subsidy for phosphate in Nutrient Nutrient-based subsidy (NBS) policy released on 28 March 2025 has led to a 13-17 per cent rise in Di-ammonium Phosphate (DAP) prices for imports into India. An increase in DAP prices led to a 10 per cent surge in the price of phosphoric acid, which has further led to a rise in the price of rock phosphate.
Fertiliser inventory in India at the end of FY25 for both phosphatic & potassic fertiliser (P&K) and urea is at its second lowest level in the past six years (Source: Department of Fertiliser). P&K closing inventory stood at 4.3mn tonnes in FY25, which is the second-lowest during FY20- 25. Within this, DAP inventory stood at 0.9mn tonnes, the second-lowest level in the past six years. Urea inventory, yet again, was at the second-lowest level in the past six years, at a comfortable 5.6mn tonnes, the brokerage firm said in a sector report.