Texas Longhorns opponents on 2025 schedule ranked by ESPN FPI

USA Today

2 days ago

Texas Longhorns opponents on 2025 schedule ranked by ESPN FPI
ESPN has released its FPI rankings for 2025. How do the super computers in Bristol, CT rank the 12 teams on the Texas Longhorns schedule?
According to ESPN, the Football Power Index (FPI) "is a predictive rating system that estimates each FBS team's strength (in points per game relative to the national average) on offense, defense and special teams, making adjustments for starters lost, recruiting talent and other personnel changes. Those numbers are then plugged into the schedule, and everything is simulated 20,000 times to track each team's odds of winning its conference, making the playoff and advancing through to the national title."
After the 20,000 simulations, the Longhorns are the No. 1 team in the nation. Texas has the top FPI rating at 28.5. ESPN gives the Longhorns an 8.9% chance of going undefeated with a projected record of 10.4-2.1. UT has a 34.1% to win the SEC, an 83.9% chance of making the 12-team college football playoff, an astounding 37.7% chance to make the national title game and a 24.1% chance to win it all.
Here's how Texas' 2025 opponents rank:
FPI Rating : 26.6 (No. 2)
: 26.6 (No. 2) Projected W/L : 10.1-2.3
: 10.1-2.3 Playoff chances : 78.6%
: 78.6% Make national title chances : 30%
: 30% Win national title chances: 17.9%
Comment: The fact Texas must face the No. 2 team on the FPI makes the Georgia game even tougher.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (Aug. 30)
FPI Rating : 23.8 (No. 4)
: 23.8 (No. 4) Projected W/L : 10.4-2.2
: 10.4-2.2 Playoff chances : 70.6%
: 70.6% Make national title chances : 21.3%
: 21.3% Win national title chances: 10.8%
Comment: The Buckeyes are the fourth highest ranked team and another tough road test for the Horns.
FPI Rating : 17.9 (No. 8)
: 17.9 (No. 8) Projected W/L : 8.1-4.1
: 8.1-4.1 Playoff chances : 34.3%
: 34.3% Make national title chances : 5.5%
: 5.5% Win national title chances: 2.3%
Comment: The numbers really drop off once you get to past the Top 10. The Aggies only have a 34% chance of making the playoff.
4. Oklahoma Sooners (Oct. 11)
FPI Rating : 14.6 (No. 16)
: 14.6 (No. 16) Projected W/L : 6.9-5.1
: 6.9-5.1 Playoff chances : 18.4%
: 18.4% Make national title chances : 2.2%
: 2.2% Win national title chances: 0.8%
Comment: OU has a new QB in John Mateer but ESPN's algorithm projects the Sooners a long way from winning a title.
FPI Rating : 14.3 (No. 18)
: 14.3 (No. 18) Projected W/L : 6.4-5.6
: 6.4-5.6 Playoff chances : 14.5%
: 14.5% Make national title chances : 1.6%
: 1.6% Win national title chances: 0.7%
Comment: Florida should be better than last year. Texas will play the Gators in the Swamp to open SEC play.
FPI Rating : 7.6 (No. 22)
: 7.6 (No. 22) Projected W/L : 6.1-5.9
: 6.1-5.9 Playoff chances : 8.2%
: 8.2% Make national title chances : 0.7%
: 0.7% Win national title chances: 0.3%
Comment: The Razorbacks come to Austin for the first time in over 20 years.
FPI Rating : 10.8 (No. 34)
: 10.8 (No. 34) Projected W/L : 5.6-6.4
: 5.6-6.4 Playoff chances : 3.3%
: 3.3% Make national title chances : 0.1%
: 0.1% Win national title chances: 0.0%
Comment: The Wildcats are the first team on this list projected to have a losing record.
8. Mississippi State Bulldogs (Oct. 25)
FPI Rating : 3.8 (No. 52)
: 3.8 (No. 52) Projected W/L : 4.4-7.6
: 4.4-7.6 Playoff chances : 0.7%
: 0.7% Make national title chances : 0.0%
: 0.0% Win national title chances: 0.0%
Comment: The Bulldogs might be slightly better in 2025, but Hail State will still be one of the worst teams in the SEC.
9. Vanderbilt Commodores (Nov. 1)
FPI Rating : 3.4 (No. 56)
: 3.4 (No. 56) Projected W/L : 3.2-8.8
: 3.2-8.8 Playoff chances : 0.9%
: 0.9% Make national title chances : 0.0%
: 0.0% Win national title chances: 0.0%
Comment: Vanderbilt gave Texas a very tough game last year in Nashville. This year the Commodores travel to DKR.
10. San Jose State Spartans (Sept. 6)
FPI Rating : -6.9 (No. 93)
: -6.9 (No. 93) Projected W/L : 3.2-8.8
: 3.2-8.8 Playoff chances : 0.0%
: 0.0% Make national title chances : 0.0%
: 0.0% Win national title chances: 0.0%
Comment: The Spartans are the best of the cupcakes on the schedule.
11. Sam Houston Bearkats (Sept. 20)
FPI Rating : -10.7 (No. 111)
: -10.7 (No. 111) Projected W/L : 5.2-7.0
: 5.2-7.0 Playoff chances : 0.4%
: 0.4% Make national title chances : 0.0%
: 0.0% Win national title chances: 0.0%
Comment: Former Wisconsin offensive coordinator Phil Longo takes over the Bearkats still struggling to find their footing in FBS.
12. UTEP Miners (Sept. 13)
FPI Rating : -15.6 (No. 130)
: -15.6 (No. 130) Projected W/L : 4.9-7.2
: 4.9-7.2 Playoff chances : 0.1%
: 0.1% Make national title chances : 0.0%
: 0.0% Win national title chances: 0.0%
Comment: UTEP is ranked as one of the worst teams in FBS by ESPN's computers.