Canadians are bracing for more food inflation amid U.S. trade war: new report

National Post

06-05-2025

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Faith in independent grocers, in particular, indicates that people are starting to think about where they're buying their food — not just what they're purchasing, says Charlebois. 'Independents have struggled the last little while. People are paying more attention to the smaller shops — the independently owned and the Canadian-owned shops — that are out there offering unique and innovative products.'
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Charlebois adds that getting in front of consumers can be challenging for food entrepreneurs. 'It's always tough to deal with larger grocers. If you have independents willing to give it a shot, that's good news for innovation. That's good news for variety and consumers.'
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According to the report, 10 per cent of respondents buy local foods more often than they did six months ago, which the authors attributed in part to the availability of spring produce as well as the 'Buy Canadian' movement. Nearly half (43.5 per cent) choose local foods always or often. 'People are seeking more Canadian food. More people are checking the origin of the items they're purchasing,' says Özbilge.
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Taylor adds: 'Never in my life have I seen such patriotism in Canada, and it's really coming through in all that we're doing. And so it's great to see, certainly, when people go to the grocery store and see that ' made in Canada,' or '100 per cent Canadian-made' or whatever it may be. It focuses their attention on where their food is coming from, and I don't think that's ever a bad idea.'
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Affordability (42 per cent) remains the leading factor driving food purchases, followed by nutrition (25 per cent) and taste (18 per cent). Respondents are checking best-before dates more often, and on the sustainability front, recycling food packaging increased, and reducing food waste at home improved.
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'Sustainability is getting back to people's minds as they're trying to shake off this monetary pressure,' says Özbilge. He notes that many people misunderstand best-before dates. They're an indicator of food quality — not food safety.
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'When I see those trends, they're minimal, but I think they might be meaningful towards reducing waste.'
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The report suggests that spending on food service is increasing year-over-year (+3.8 per cent) while retail is decreasing (-0.58 per cent). Canada is a world leader in remote work, Charlebois underscores. Full-time employees spend nearly two days a week at home, according to the Global Survey of Working Arrangements. He sees the uptick in service as a sign that even when working remotely, there's a desire to go to coffee shops or restaurants to socialize, which could create opportunities for establishments in the suburbs versus downtown cores.
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Compared to fall 2024, more people are buying in bulk and opting for generic or store brands over brand-name products. The Canadian Food Sentiment Index also shows an increase in purchasing grass-fed beef and cage-free eggs.
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The popularity of the omnivorous diet (no specific restrictions) dropped, while others, including flexitarian (primarily plant-based with occasional consumption of animal products), paleo, vegan and keto, increased.
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Despite its emphasis on affordability and expectations of double-digit inflation, the Canadian Food Sentiment Index suggests many are taking a holistic view — not just focusing on pocketbook issues. 'I think this report indicates the end of the food inflation storm we've been in for the last few years,' says Charlebois. 'People are starting to think about what they're eating again instead of just trying to survive.'
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