How Will Upstart Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
The Upstart Holdings, Inc. logo appears on a smartphone screen in this illustration photo in Reno, ... More United States, on December 20, 2024. (Photo by Jaque Silva/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST) is scheduled to announce its earnings on Tuesday, May 6, 2025. Historically, UPST stock has shown considerable volatility surrounding its earnings announcements. Since 2021, the stock has reported a positive one-day return in 53% of cases. When these returns are positive, they have been substantial, with a median of 34.6% and a maximum of 89.3% recorded in March 2021.
For event-driven traders, grasping these historical trends could provide a potential advantage, though a lot will hinge on how the actual results stack up against consensus estimates and market anticipations. There are two main strategies to exploit this:
Ahead of the forthcoming earnings, consensus estimates forecast earnings per share (EPS) of $0.17 on revenue of $201 million. This indicates significant year-over-year growth compared to the prior period, where Upstart reported a loss of $0.31 per share on revenue of $128 million.
From a fundamental standpoint, Upstart currently holds a market capitalization of $4.4 billion. Over the trailing twelve months, the company has generated $629 million in revenue but reported a net loss of $129 million.
That said, if you're looking for upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative — having surpassed the S&P 500 and produced returns exceeding 91% since its launch.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Here are some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Additional information regarding observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized alongside the statistics in the table below.
UPST 1D,5D, and 21D Post-Earnings Return
A relatively less risky approach (though not effective if the correlation is weak) is to comprehend the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and carry out the suitable trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D display the strongest correlation, a trader might take a "long" position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) timeframe. Remember that the correlation 1D_5D indicates the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and following 5D returns.
UPST Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
Occasionally, the performance of peers can impact the stock's reaction after earnings. Indeed, the pricing-in might commence before the earnings are disclosed. Below is some historical data regarding the post-earnings performance of Upstart stock in comparison to the performance of peers that reported earnings right before Upstart. For an accurate comparison, peer stock returns also reflect post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
UPST Correlation With Peer Earnings
Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all three, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), delivering strong returns for investors. Additionally, if you seek upside with a smoother journey than an individual stock such as Upstart, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and achieved >91% returns since its inception.
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