England too strong for Sweden? Brown-Finnis' Euros predictions - quarter-finals

BBC News

6 days ago

There are only eight teams left in Euro 2025 and they are all dreaming of glory in the final at St Jakob-Park in Basel on 27 July.Holders England are one of them, but will the Lionesses continue their progress when they face Sweden in the quarter-finals?BBC Sport football expert Rachel Brown-Finnis is predicting the outcome of all 31 games in Switzerland.She was right about four of the eight matches in the final round of group games, meaning she has been correct about 16 of the 24 (67%) matches so far.One of the games that caught her out was Sweden's 4-1 win over Germany. Like Rachel, you did not see that coming either - from thousands of votes only 13% of you went with a Sweden win, and only ONE person got the exact scoreline - congratulations to whoever that was.You also ended up with a score of 4/8 from that set of matches, leaving you on the same total overall of 16/24 (67%) now the group stage is complete.Will you or her do better next time? You can make your own predictions for the quarter-finals below, including world champions Spain against the hosts.Before the tournament, Brown-Finnis chose seven of the eight teams that are through to the knockout stage, including England, who she believes will win the tournament.
Quarter-final ties
16 July, 20:00 BSTStade de Geneve, GenevaWorld ranking: 16th v 13thBest previous Euros finish: Norway - winners in 1987 & 1993. Italy - runner-up in 1993 & 1997.Watch live on BBC One, iPlayer and the BBC Sport website. Live commentary on Radio 5 Live.This is a very hard game to call. I have watched both teams live out here in Switzerland and they have both impressed me.Italy were really good in their final game in Group B against Spain and they will be looking for a similar type of performance here - solid defensively, while also carrying a threat.Andrea Soncin's side took the lead against the world champions and, although they lost 3-1 in the end, they really shocked Spain - and probably quite a few neutral observers as well - by running them so close.They were able to squeeze Spain because of how well they were set up without the ball, but also the way they counter-attacked when they won it back. They showed everyone how you can get at Spain and open them up.Spain dominate possession against everyone they play, so Italy's tactics might be slightly different here. I still think they will be well-organised though.
Norway are in decent shape too, however, and had a 100% record as they topped Group A.I feel like they have improved as the tournament has gone on, and they seem to have really put their foot on the pedal since their poor display in the first half of their opening game against Switzerland.In the past, Norway would have gone into this game as big favourites but Italy drew with them twice in qualifying and they will not view themselves as underdogs anymore.That's the way I feel too. This is is going to be very close, and I can see it going to extra-time, but I have a feeling Italy will edge it and claim what would be a huge scalp.Brown-Finnis' prediction: 1-2 after extra time.
17 July, 20:00 BSTStadion Letzigrund, ZurichWorld ranking: 6th v 5thBest previous Euros finish: Sweden - winners in 1984. England - winners in 2022.Watch live on BBC One, iPlayer and the BBC Sport website. Live commentary on Radio 5 Live.For starters, Sweden are going to want revenge for for their 4-0 semi-final loss at Euro 2022, when England swept them away.They have already showed people how strong they are now by topping Group C and smashing Germany 4-1 along the way.Germany's goal in that game is the only one Sweden have conceded so far and even when they haven't played particularly well, like in their opener against Denmark when they appeared a little reserved, they still got the win.So, this is going to be very tough test for England but I think the Lionesses have got the quality they need to get through and, against the Netherlands and Wales, they have reached the required levels with their performances too.
If England go 100%, then in whatever aspect you want to measure this game, I think they will have too much for Sweden.They drew twice when they met each other in qualifying but this is knockout tournament football now and that has very different demands, which sees different qualities shine through.England have already effectively had one knockout game at this tournament, when they played the Dutch knowing that if they lost they were out.We saw how Sarina Wiegman's side responded then, and the scenario seemed to bring the best out of them. I am co-commentating on this game and I'm expecting a similar story here, with another full-tilt performance from England.Brown-Finnis' prediction: 1-3
18 July, 20:00 BSTStadion Wankdorf, BernWorld ranking: 2nd v 23rdBest previous Euros finish: Spain - semi-finals in 1997. Switzerland - groups in 2017 & 2022.Watch live on BBC One, iPlayer and the BBC Sport website. Live commentary on Radio 5 Live.I am co-commentating on this game too, and the disparity between Spain and Switzerland feels like the biggest of any of the four quarter-finals.Spain are clear favourites here, for a reason. The world champions are going to win and probably score a few more goals, after hitting 14 in the group stage, so Switzerland really just need to try and hold out for as long as they can.There have already been big celebrations here because the Swiss have got through to a knockout stage of a Euros for the first time.So, this tournament has already been a success for them on the pitch as well as off it, with record digital viewing figures and the attendances at games., externalThis feels like the last stand for the hosts because they won't keep Spain out, but I am going to say the Swiss will score too - that is unlikely to happen, but I really want them to end these Euros with something to smile about.Brown-Finnis' prediction: 4-1
19 July, 20:00 BSTSt Jakob-Park, BaselWorld ranking: 10th v 3rdBest previous Euros finish: France - semi-finals in 2022. Germany - Eight-time winners between 1989 & 2013.Live commentary on Radio 5 Live.What a tie this is. Along with Norway, Spain and Sweden, France got through their group with a 100% record, which means they have won all 11 games they have played this year.Germany, in contrast, will still be stinging from their 4-1 defeat to Sweden - something no-one saw coming, well apart from the one reader who predicted it. I feel a bit better about getting that one wrong now.As united as England's team performances have been here so far, Germany's display in that game felt like far more of a scattergun approach. Carlotta Wamser's red card clearly didn't help but they looked surprisingly disjointed, lacked organisation and discipline in transition, and their passing was all over the place.
I know what a Germany reaction looks and feels like, however, and that is what I am expecting France to feel the full force of here.A bit like the response we saw from England against the Netherlands after their defeat by France, Germany will know they need to be so much better in every department or they are going home.From the semi-finals of Euro 2022 to the quarter-finals of the 2015 World Cup, Germany always seem to get the better of France in knockout football and I don't see that changing here.France's attack has helped light up this tournament and of course they won't go out without a fight, but Germany will have a huge following in Basel and I think their fans will be the ones celebrating in the end.Brown-Finnis' prediction: 1-2 after extra time.