Life expectancy for Californians still lower than before COVID — here's why
In 2024, life expectancy for Californians was 80.54 years — 0.86 years less than the 81.4 it was in 2019, according to the study, published Wednesday in JAMA.
Prior to the start of the pandemic, life expectancy in the state had been rising steadily; it fell sharply in 2020 (to 79.3) and 2021 (to 78.48) before rising again in 2022 (79.56) and 2023 (80.28).
But the 2024 data suggest that this progress is flatlining — a sign that COVID continues to have lingering effects on population-level health, despite the fact that it is no longer top of mind for most people.
'The reason why that's important is that the pandemic is still having effects on our health, even though everyone may have mentally moved on and wants to forget about it,' said study co-author Janet Currie, a professor of economics at Yale. 'It's still with us.'
The analysis, led by researchers at Yale, Northwestern, UCLA and Virginia Commonwealth University, used preliminary California data for 2024. National life expectancy data for 2024 is not yet available.
In California, 2024 marked the first time since the pandemic began that drug overdoses and cardiovascular disease both accounted for a greater share of the life expectancy decline than COVID. Drug overdoses accounted for 20% of the overall life expectancy decline, cardiovascular disease accounted for 16%, and COVID accounted for 13%.
That is the largest proportion of decline attributed to cardiovascular disease in several years.
The rise in cardiovascular-related deaths, which include deaths from heart attacks and stroke, is 'puzzling,' Currie said.
Some of it could be due to people not seeking health care during the early stretches of the pandemic, such as those who avoided the hospital even when they were having a heart attack or stroke, for fear of the virus. It may also be linked to rising obesity rates or long COVID, the latter of which can lead to inflammation and can be associated with higher rates of heart disease.
Drug overdoses skyrocketed during the pandemic but declined between 2023 and 2024 — accounting for 36% and 20% of the life expectancy drop, respectively.
'That's a piece of good news,' Currie said.
COVID has accounted for less and less of the life expectancy drop over time. In 2021, it accounted for 62% of the deficit. That fell to 36% in 2022, 16% in 2023 and 13% in 2024, the study found.
Out of all racial and ethnic groups, Hispanic residents experienced the biggest drop in life expectancy during COVID — more than five years, from 82.55 in 2019 to 77.37 in 2021 — but also rebounded relatively quickly in 2022 and 2023.
Asian residents continue to have the highest life expectancy — 85.51 years in 2024, compared to 81.11 for Hispanic residents, 79.94 for white residents and 73.42 for Black residents.
Economists study life expectancy because how long people expect to live impacts how much they need to save for retirement. And federal programs like Social Security and Medicare must factor in life expectancy when estimating costs.
Life expectancy in the U.S. improved significantly over the 20th century, Currie noted. Those gains happened in spurts thanks to advances like clean water, the development of antibiotics, major innovations in treating heart disease and cancer, and improvements in preventing infant mortality.
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