AI In Agri-Food: Hype, Hope And The Hard Questions CEOs Must Ask Now

Forbes

7 hours ago

Aidan Connolly, President, AgriTech Capital, is a food/feed/farm futurologist and author of the book The Future of Agriculture.
Few subjects exercise a room of food and agribusiness executives as much as Artificial Intelligence: is it a transformative opportunity or a disruptive threat? As a speaker, panelist and contributor, I am a reluctant participant. How do you avoid vague generalities or lofty predictions when trying to capture and evaluate a moment of profound change?
AI isn't just another technological wave—it's a bullet train, accelerating past at such speed that most of us are left observing from the platform. I've experienced this firsthand. My book, The Future of Agriculture, was released just weeks before ChatGPT launched, and everything in the business world changed. Its absence from the book is evidence that even the most future-focused work can age overnight.
AgriTech Capital and LSC International decided to tackle the question head-on by harnessing the collective expertise of 40 experts in the field. Using the Delphi Technique of research, we conducted interviews with experts in AI, food and agriculture. They were grouped into AI specialists (with an interest in Agri-Food) and food and agribusiness leaders (with interests in applications of AI). The interviews were framed by five top-of-mind questions designed to elicit candid insights into what drives urgency and innovation in the field. We released here a more detailed review of the survey results.
The questions we asked our experts were direct and pragmatic:
• How will AI transform the business of food and agribusiness?
• Which jobs and positions are likely to be the most disrupted?
• What advice would you give CEOs to prepare for this?
• Do you have any concerns about the use of AI in business?
• What actions should a CEO take in the next 6 months on AI?
We also created a virtual panel of experts to simulate a debate between these different perspectives, to see how AI might change or affect the sector. We separated the interviews into the 'outside-in' perspective from AI specialists and the 'inside-out' view from food and agribusiness leaders and compared these.
Our analysis showed that:
Optimism With Purpose: Most experts were extremely positive about the potential of AI to address challenges in the current food system, including improving affordability, reducing waste, precision in nutrient use for plants and animals and improving climate resilience.
Skepticism About the Hype: There is concern that consulting groups are leading the hype and monetizing sophisticated algorithms that are still far from delivering on the broader promise of sentient intelligence.
Need for Leadership: All participants were clear on the urgent need for executives to respond to the changes, noting, "the genie's out of the bottle now."
Insider Incrementalism: Industry insiders were pragmatic, seeing AI as a tool to improve data collection and analysis. Sensors, IOT devices, robotics, cameras, etc., will allow farmers and food producers to make better, more accurate decisions in real time, particularly the challenges of labor shortages in the food industry.
Transformational Outsiders: In contrast, 'outsider' AI experts saw potential for systemic shifts, such as predictive financial modeling that could lead to more predictable yields, less market volatility, better management of weather issues, etc., in turn allowing producers and growers to get better credit terms.
Compared Human Insights To A Virtual Panel: Asking ChatGPT the same five questions, and creating a virtual panel of agriculture experts was eye-opening, and despite not being perfect, both were quite accurate in replicating the collective wisdom of our human experts.
Hallucination Risks: Although much has been made of the potential of AI to create 'hallucinations' (completely false or invented information), we found no evidence of them in the AI-generated responses.
The Human Factor: Our experts contributed context, highlighting the real-world complexities of agriculture (dust, moisture, pests, unpredictability, etc.), which can defeat even perfect datasets. The people experts also emphasized the importance of the human context in creating understanding, education and persuasion through communication. A personal interaction or humor can drive change better than dry facts.
AI presents both potential and real risks, particularly in the realm of data security. Is your proprietary data secure from hacking or cyber threats? Do you own your own data and how do you ensure that confidential and proprietary information is not being used to sell products back to you, or—worse—to competitors. AI is like a conveyor belt, continuously in motion. The challenge for leaders is to invest effectively in order to stay relevant and ahead of the game.
The Expert Playbook: Five Recommendations For Food & Agri CEOs
First, Fix Your Data: Prioritize the integrity of your data—before deploying AI. Collect, collate and clean your data and know what you have before you start.
Pilot With A Purpose: Start with manageably sized, targeted pilot projects that address specific internal challenges first.
No Exemption For Executives: AI is not an IT issue; it is a leadership issue. Senior executives need to develop AI literacy in order to understand both the technology and the strategic applications. Become informed about AI and the best immediate AI opportunities in your business.
Insiders Over Outsiders: External experts can be valuable but are not a substitute for building internal competency within your own operation. Minimize the need for outside experts.
Now Or Never: This message was unanimous: you can't wait. The pace of change is exponential, and early movers will define the competitive landscape.
If AI is the most transformative technology of the last century, then the complexity of the food and farming sector may be its biggest challenge. The collective wisdom of our thirty-six experts offers practical insights into how to navigate the challenge and create a stronger, more resilient and sustainable future for food production and agriculture.
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