Seizing the future in the face of America's retreat

Hindustan Times

3 hours ago

President Donald Trump's second-term policies have once again pushed the global conversation into a new realm of uncertainty. From sweeping trade tariffs and strategic technology restrictions to tightened student visa policies and aggressive immigration controls, the US seems to be deliberately moving inward, adopting protectionist policies with significant global implications. While these measures are designed to revive domestic manufacturing, secure intellectual capital, and curb illegal immigration, they are also inadvertently reshaping the geopolitical and economic architecture elsewhere. Amidst these tectonic shifts, countries like India stand to gain if they position themselves strategically and act decisively. Donald Trump
Trump's economic nationalism has resulted in a revived trade war, especially with China. His administration recently increased tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods, targeting sectors such as electric vehicles (Evs), semiconductors, and critical minerals. The intention is clear: To re-shore manufacturing back to the US and reduce dependency on Chinese supply chains. However, the consequences of such moves ripple far beyond Beijing and Washington. As global companies seek alternatives to Chinese manufacturing, other Asian economies including India, Vietnam, and Indonesia are rapidly emerging as attractive destinations for investment. For India, which has long attempted to position itself as a reliable and democratic manufacturing hub, this development presents a golden opportunity. With initiatives like Make in India and production-linked incentive schemes for electronics and semiconductors, the Indian government is laying the groundwork to attract companies looking to de-risk their global operations.
In the technology sector, the Trump administration has intensified export controls, limiting China's access to advanced chip manufacturing equipment and Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies. These restrictions, while intended to curtail China's technological rise, have also fragmented global innovation networks. This fragmentation could ironically catalyse a new wave of innovation across Asia and Europe, as countries accelerate efforts to develop indigenous technologies. India, which is building its semiconductor fabrication facilities and boosting AI research, can now play a more central role in global value chains. With a deep talent pool in engineering and computer science, India can absorb not only displaced global investment but also the human capital looking for new avenues beyond an increasingly closed-off America.
One of the most dramatic impacts of Trump's policies is being felt in the realm of higher education. New visa regulations are deterring thousands of international students, especially from Asia. Measures include increased scrutiny of social media, more restrictive visa durations, and arbitrary rejections based on political or ideological grounds. The US, once the gold standard for international education, is rapidly losing its appeal among prospective students. Indian and Chinese students, traditionally the largest cohorts in American universities, are beginning to look elsewhere. For India, this shift opens two parallel opportunities. First, Indian universities, especially those with growing global aspirations can step in to attract not only Indian students who are reconsidering US options but also students from other countries looking for affordable, quality education. With strategic reforms, partnerships with foreign institutions, and investments in infrastructure, Indian higher education can elevate its status regionally and globally.
Second, the US's more selective approach to immigration, though largely restrictive, has left some space open for high-skilled professionals. Despite tightening student visas, Trump recently expressed a surprising openness to retaining Indian and Chinese graduates in the US to start companies or work in innovation sectors. If that door remains even partially open, it could create a focused channel for Indian STEM talent to contribute to US innovation, albeit in more structured and limited ways. However, if the overall tone toward immigration continues to harden, Indian professionals and entrepreneurs may look to establish ventures at home or in other friendly jurisdictions, further strengthening domestic innovation ecosystems.
The broader immigration landscape under Trump has undergone significant changes. From executive orders restricting birthright citizenship to funding cuts for sanctuary cities and the resumption of large-scale immigration raids, the administration has made its anti-immigration stance clear. Temporary pauses on enforcement due to labor shortages in sectors like agriculture and meatpacking only underscore America's underlying need for immigrant labour, even as its policies contradict that reality. As a result, countries like India can respond in two ways: By negotiating bilateral labour mobility agreements for specific sectors or by strengthening domestic industries to retain and productively employ labor that might otherwise have migrated. Additionally, the Indian diaspora, increasingly wary of the American immigration environment, may redirect its investments and entrepreneurial energy back to India, providing a subtle but powerful boost to sectors like real estate, education, and tech startups.
India's service sector, particularly IT and business process outsourcing, is also poised to benefit from Trump's curbs. Restrictions on service imports and a declining inflow of foreign students and tourists are likely to dent America's $293 billion services trade surplus. Indian firms, with their long-established capabilities in remote delivery of financial, legal, health, and educational services, are in a strong position to absorb some of that demand. In a world increasingly comfortable with remote collaboration, India's time zone advantage, language skills, and scalable talent pool make it a natural alternative.
However, these opportunities are not without challenges. The fluidity of American politics means that many of Trump's measures could be reversed or diluted by future administrations or court rulings. India must also contend with competition from other nations such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, and the Philippines, all of which are vying for similar trade and investment diversions. Moreover, India's infrastructure, bureaucratic complexity, and policy inconsistencies could deter investors unless urgent reforms are undertaken.
Strategically, India must move swiftly. This is a moment of global realignment, and complacency could mean missing the window. The government should deepen economic diplomacy, especially with countries and companies disenchanted by US volatility. Educational reforms should be accelerated to position India as a regional hub for higher learning. Domestic innovation must be incentivised with consistent funding, stronger intellectual property protections, and smoother regulatory pathways. In trade, India should work to expand agreements with the European Union, Asean, and African nations, offering itself as both an alternative supplier and an emerging market of over a billion consumers.
Trump's protectionist pivot, while destabilising for many, has inadvertently set the stage for a broader reshuffling of global economic and technological leadership. India, with its demographic advantage, growing market, and improving policy ecosystem, is well-placed to step into this evolving void. But time is of the essence. If India can act with clarity, consistency, and courage, it could emerge not just as a beneficiary of America's retreat but as one of the architects of the new global order.
This article is authored by Gunwant Singh, scholar, international relations and security studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.