Trump seriously considering Iran's offer of indirect nuclear talks

Axios

02-04-2025

The White House is seriously considering an Iranian proposal for indirect nuclear talks, while at the same time significantly boosting U.S. forces in the Middle East in case President Trump opts for military strikes, two U.S. officials tell Axios.
Why it matters: Trump has repeatedly said he'd prefer a deal, but warned that without one "there will be bombing." His timeline is tight: Trump gave Iran a two-month deadline to reach a deal, but it's not clear if and when that clock started ticking.
The White House is still engaged in an internal debate between those who think a deal is achievable and those who see talks as a waste of time and back strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.
In the meantime, the Pentagon is engaged in a massive buildup of forces in the Middle East. If Trump decides the time is up, he will have a loaded gun at the ready.
Behind the scenes: Over the weekend, Trump received Iran's formal response to the letter he sent Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei three weeks ago, a U.S. official said.
While Trump proposed direct nuclear negotiations, the Iranians would agree only to indirect talks mediated by Oman.
The U.S. official said the Trump administration thinks direct talks would have a higher chance of success, but isn't ruling out the format the Iranians proposed and doesn't object to the Omanis serving as mediators between the countries, as the Gulf state has in the past.
Both U.S. officials said no decision has been made and internal discussions are ongoing. "After the exchange of letters we are now exploring next steps in order to begin conversations and trust building with the Iranians," one said.
Driving the news: The rhetoric between Tehran and Washington was already ratcheting up before Trump's threat Sunday to bomb Iran if a deal isn't reached.
On Monday, Khamenei fired back and said that while he doesn't believe the U.S. would attack Iran "they will certainly receive a heavy blow in return" if they do so.
Iran also lodged a formal diplomatic protest — channeled via the Swiss embassy, as the U.S. and Iran lack diplomatic relations — and warned it would "respond decisively and immediately to any threat."
What they're saying:"The U.S. has 10 bases and 50,000 soldiers in the region. ... If you live in a glass house you shouldn't throw stones," the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps told Iranian TV earlier this week.
Khamenei adviser and former parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani stressed that if the U.S. bombs Iran's nuclear facilities, Iranian public opinion will press the government to change its policy and develop a nuke.
Friction point: Trump abandoned the 2015 nuclear deal and argued that his "maximum pressure" approach would force Iran to sign a better deal. He failed to get a new deal, as did President Biden.
In the meantime, Iran has dramatically increased its enrichment of uranium and is now effectively a nuclear threshold state — though Tehran insists it does not seek a nuclear weapon.
Iran also says it's unwilling to negotiate on non-nuclear matters, such as its missile program, which Trump and his team have previously said must be on the table.
State of play: On Tuesday, the Pentagon announced that it was sending additional troops and air assets to the region, and that two aircraft carriers — Truman and Vinson — would remain in the region.
Last week, the Pentagon sent several B-2 stealth bombers to the Diego Garcia military base in the Indian Ocean in a deployment a U.S. official said was "not disconnected" from Trump's two-month deadline to Iran.
The B-2 bombers can carry huge bunker buster bombs that would be a key element in any possible military action against Iran's underground nuclear facilities.
"Should Iran or its proxies threaten American personnel and interests in the region, the U.S. will take decisive action to defend our people," Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said in a statement.