S&P 500 Roars Back 23%--Wall Street's Wildest Rebound Since Trump's Tariff Shock
The S&P 500 (SPY) just punched through a new record, officially logging a 23% rebound from its April low. What changed? Trump dialed back the tariff chaos, claiming a trade deal with China has been signed, and the U.S. helped broker a ceasefire between Israel and Iranboth of which took pressure off oil markets and global nerves. Add in better-than-expected earnings and a surge of buybacks, and suddenly investors are back in risk-on mode. After a brutal selloff triggered by Trump's liberation day tariffs earlier this year, markets are now pivoting hard toward AI, resilience, and growth.
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The rally's engine? Tech and industrials. Tesla (TSLA) bounced alongside high-beta names like Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR), Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD), and Super Micro (NASDAQ:SMCI) all ripping since Trump's U-turn on April 9. On the industrials front, Howmet Aerospace (NYSE:HWM) is up 62%, while Uber (NYSE:UBER) and GE Vernova (NYSE:GEV) have each jumped 54% year-to-date. Even defensive plays like RTX (NYSE:RTX) and Deere (NYSE:DE) joined the party. According to Barclays and Citi, investors now believe the worst of the trade fear is in the rearview mirror. Citi's team even sees another 2.5% upside by year-end 2025 as AI tailwinds keep sentiment strong.
Still, not everyone's sold. Credit cracks are showingbank lending is slowing, and delinquencies are ticking up. Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett warns the market's now even pricier than it was back in January when you measure it by forward earnings. Her take? Peak pessimism might be behind us, but we're not back to easy street just yet. But here's the kicker: traders aren't flinching. Volatility has collapsed, retail is buying the dip, and no one seems to care about tariffs anymore. The market doesn't discount the same event twice, Shalett said. Right now, it's growth seasonand the tape is acting like it.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
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