A Population Policy differentiated by States is what India needs

Time of India

04-07-2025

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The recently released State of World Population (SOWP) 2025 by UNFPA estimates that India's estimated population is little over 1.46 billion in 2025, which is approximately 17.8% of the total world population.
The population of India crossed that of China in mid-2023, making her the most populous country in the world. India's young population is still significantly large despite falling birth rates. About 24% fall in the age bracket of 0-14, 17% in 10-19 bracket, and 26% in 10-24 bracket. India's 68% population falls in the working age group of 15-64 bracket. With 2.4% of the earth's total landmass, it supports more than 17% of the global population.
On this World Population Day (July 11), we need to pause and think about this issue seriously. Most of the policy thinkers seem to be too impressed with the phrase 'demographic dividend'. It is true that in demographic transition, a stage comes when the working age population becomes large and it is possible to take advantage of that moment. Many countries have taken advantage of this demographic dividend and progressed fast.
by Taboola
by Taboola
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To our minds, the Harvard Professors knew but did not tell that this advantage can be taken only till the threshold or the tipping point (limited by the carrying capacity of a system) has not been breached. Beyond that a rising population becomes a burden and creates a drag which pulls back.
This is the time when we should debunk the myth of demographic dividend. Any system has a carrying capacity beyond which the overload starts causing all kinds of problems.
The concept of demographic dividend suits the developed countries to get cheap skilled and unskilled manpower from the developing countries. They welcome migration when required and stop it when they don't need them. This is somewhat true for intra-country migration also where highly populated and poor states have become cheap suppliers of labour for industries, agriculture, construction and service sectors like security, retail, drivers, domestic work etc.
This sometimes gives rise to tension between the local people and the migrants as employment opportunities are limited. The recent rift in several states over use of local language is a subtle reflection of that.
With the advent of AI, jobs are shrinking and are further going to shrink. Microsoft has done two rounds of retrenchment recently, laying off thousands of employees including the Director of AI! Ford CEO Jim Farley has warned that 50% of all white-collar jobs in the US could be lost to artificial intelligence.
There have been large scale layoffs in India also in the recent past in the IT and other sectors. If less people are required to do the same work due to AI, where will young Indians find jobs? Migration will also not remain an option.
There is a perceptible fall in fertility rates across the countries. The total fertility rate (TFR) of India has reduced to 2.0 which is below the replacement level fertility of 2.1, which means that we are gradually moving near the peak.
TFR falling below 2.1 does not mean that our population will start falling immediately. Due to a phenomenon known as 'population momentum', the population will keep growing for several more decades.
Newton's second law of motion applies to population dynamics too and it takes some time after applying the force (rendered by reduction in total fertility rate) to lose this momentum and become stable. As per the estimate of UN population division, it is expected that in a medium variant scenario, India's population may peak by 2064 at approximately 1.7 billion after which it will start to fall.
D
espite India being poised to become the fourth largest economy by the year end, she remains on the 122nd position in terms of per capita GDP on purchasing power parity. As per IMF data, in terms of nominal per capita GDP, India ranks 136th out of 188 countries at 2,878 USD. If the denominator is huge then ratio will always get affected adversely. Doctors per thousand, policemen per thousand, teachers per thousand etc.
will remain woefully short from the international standards. Therefore, other than raising the supply side, it is important to control the demand (denominator) also.
India is too huge to have one policy for every state. An analysis of Sample Registration System data for the year 2021 tells us that the TFR of states of India ranges from 1.4 to 3. While the TFR of West Bengal is at 1.4, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Punjab at 1.5, Karnataka and Telangana at 1.6, which are all below the replacement level of 2.1, we have Bihar at 3.0, UP at 2.7, MP at 2.6 and Rajasthan at 2.4.
Therefore, we need to have population policies differentiated by states, which are at different stages of demographic and fertility transition and have different needs in terms of fertility trajectory.
Especially UP and Bihar with high population density need to be bold in their policy objective and applied tools of population stabilization. While the overall population of the country is expected to peak by 2064, the population of UP and Bihar will continue to rise many years even after that.
During all big festivals of UP and Bihar, one can see pictures of long queues of migrants trying to get a seat in the trains carrying them home at various railway stations and stampede like situations. Do you remember any such pictures in the newspapers during South Indian festivals like Pongal or Onam?
(Amit Mohan Prasad is a retired IAS officer who served as additional chief secretary, health in Uttar Pradesh during Covid pandemic. Akaash Mohan, an engineer, is a data enthusiast. Views expressed are personal.)