Labour win shows how far SNP still has to go to rebuild trust with voters
The result from Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse is a big surprise. Great for Labour, grim for the SNP, good enough for Reform.
Hamilton is the home of big by-election shocks. Last night might not be in the same league as Winnie Ewing's historic Hamilton by-election win in 1967 but it is still a surprise.
Almost everyone I spoke to expected the SNP to win. The pollsters predicted that the SNP were ahead across Scotland, the bookies made the SNP odds on favourite, but the voters in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse backed Labour. And at elections, it is the voters that count.
So how did they pull it off? Labour's candidate, Davy Russell, made a point of spending his time chapping doors, talking to voters rather than talking to the media. His opponents accused him of dodging debates and avoiding scrutiny. To give him his due he did an interview with me and it was a robust interview. He would probably have got an easier time in studio debating his opponents.
Labour won on the back of what they reckon is the biggest ground campaign they have ever mounted in a Scottish election. They spent weeks knocking on doors. Hundreds of activists, MSPs, MPs, councillors and staff canvassed support and listened to voters concerns.
All that led to data on how people intended to vote, it helped the party know where its voters live. Yesterday more than 250 Labour campaigners knocked on the doors of 8,000 voters, sometimes there or four times cajoling them, pestering them out to the polling stations. In the end they got 8,559 votes.
That's quite a return – they knocked up 8,000 voters and got 8,559 votes. That is an incredible Get Out the Vote campaign.
Davy Russell's knuckles must be red raw after chapping that many doors.
And what of the others?
The SNP will be hurting today. Not only did they lose a close colleague, the much loved Christina McKelvie, whose death led to this by-election. But they also lost the a close contest by just 602 votes. Politically they had momentum going in to this by-election. STV News Hamilton by-election result.
Opinion polls, council by-election wins, Labour Government difficulties over pensioners winter fuel payments and more. First Minister John Swinney has spent almost as much time on the campaign trail as Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar in the last few weeks. This result is a big block to SNP momentum and a big boost to Scottish Labour. It shows just how far the SNP still has to go to rebuild trust with voters.
Reform will be buoyed that they came close enough to make it a three-way contest, but they will inevitably be a bit disappointed they didn't match their recent victories from Runcorn and English council elections. 26% shows that they are a serious player in Scottish politics going in to next year's Holyrood election.
The Conservatives set out to save their deposit, aiming for 1,500 votes. They managed that with a few votes to spare, but it was a low bar to set and the final result shows just how much they are being squeezed by Reform.
And amid all the analysis of where the votes went don't forget the scunner factor. That has been a big part of this election campaign: just how annoyed and angry people are with politics and politicians. I heard it time and again on the streets talking to voters. And that comes through in the result too – more than half of voters stayed at home. And that is not to play down the turnout. 44% is not bad in a by-election.
The scunner factor played in to the hands of Reform to some extent, but it is something all the political parties must face up to and address. Reconnecting with voters and re-engaging is crucial ahead of the Scottish Parliament election next May.
And this result shows that it really is game on for next May.
And finally for everyone who asked during this by-election 'Where's Davy?' Now you know, he was chapping doors, thousands of them all over Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse. And next week he'll be chapping on the door of Holyrood as the newest Member of the Scottish Parliament.
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