Iran-Israel conflict, trade wars: What will Trump do at the G7 summit?

The Herald Scotland

5 hours ago

Trump railed against former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after that Group of Seven summit and said he would yank the United States from a joint statement. The leaders fought at the time over retaliatory tariffs on critical steel and aluminum.
The G7 summit changes hands annually, and it just so happens to be Canada's turn to host again this week. Canadian leaders have signaled that they're keen to avoid the disarray that defined the gathering in 2018 and have worked to minimize any outward appearance of divisions.
Trump has often been a disruptor at global gatherings, badgering U.S. allies and competitors alike to adopt policies more favorable to the United States. But a conflict that erupted last week between Israel and Iran over Tehran's illicit nuclear program could change the dynamic in 2025, as the U.S. president flies to the foothills of the Rockies for the G7 summit.
The president could use his time in Kananaskis to unite his international colleagues behind solutions in the Middle East.
"Trump wants some kind of deescalation," said Josh Lipsky, a G7 organizer for former President Barack Obama who chairs the international economics program at the Atlantic Council. "That's what all the leaders around the table want. So there's an avenue here where Trump plays a more traditional role."
What will happen at the G7 summit?
Israel and Iran will be front-and-center at the summit, after the countries launched additional missile attacks on the eve of the event.
The volley comes after nuclear talks between American and Iranian negotiators that had been scheduled to take place on June 15 were canceled, despite a focused effort from Trump to keep them on track.
He told Tehran in social media posts and interviews with American journalists that a reinvigorated agreement was the only diplomatic offramp.
Overnight, he offered to play a mediating role in the conflict that could engulf a region already on edge by fighting between Israel and Hamas.
"We can easily get a deal done between Iran and Israel, and end this bloody conflict!!!" Trump said on Truth Social early Sunday morning.
Instead of focusing on global financial issues or security concerns about China and Russia, the missile exchanges in the Middle East will naturally take up a larger portion of the discussion, said Kelly Ann Shaw, who was Trump's representative to the economic club in the latter part of his first term.
"There's going to be a tremendous amount of concern about this exploding into a much broader regional conflict and what that means for every country participating in the G7," she said.
Trump has been laying the groundwork to play peacemaker: Ahead of the summit, Trump spoke to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen about the conflict and Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose country was kicked out of the informal gathering after it annexed Crimea in 2014.
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"He feels, as do I, this war in Israel-Iran should end, to which I explained, his war should also end," Trump said of his hour-long conversation with Putin June 14.
Russia helped facilitate a previous deal to curtail Iran's uranium program, which Trump pulled the United States out of in his first term.
In a nod to how much the fighting between Israel and Iran is upending the regular international order, Trump said he and Putin spent "much less time" on the phone talking about the Russian leader's assault on Ukraine.
"That will be for next week," Trump said, referring to a NATO Summit that will bring America and its military allies together in late June in the Netherlands.
But G7 leaders won't only talk about Iran and Israel. After all, tariffs are one of the main issues agitating Trump and his counterparts during his second-chance presidency.
Since 2018, Trump has expanded his tariff regime, and they've become a centerpiece of his second term. Trade dealing could be on the table with Canada, the European Union and more.
The president has advocated for the United States to absorb its northern neighbor - the host of the summit. And leaders still plan to discuss topics such as artificial intelligence and wildfire management.
How will talks on tariffs, peacemaking play out?
Of the group that attended the last G7 Summit in Canada, only Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron remain in power. The leaders of the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, Canada and Italy have all turned over since Trump was last in office.
Gone is a typically long winded and hard-fought communique that every country has to agree to. Canada worked with G7 nations to come up with short, action-oriented leader statements on areas of common interest, a senior U.S. official said.
"I think it's a more pragmatic approach, frankly," Shaw, the former Trump aide, assessed. "And it really does get the G7 refocused on what it's supposed to be doing - which is talking about the most pressing issues of the day and trying to find a common ground and coordinated approach among some of the world's largest economies."
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will encourage nations to "stand together," the country's ambassador to the United States, Kirsten Hillman, said, in addition to working through issues in a mutually supportive way.
"That's going to be his main message to all of the leaders: build a coalition of like-minded countries that share values, that believe in international cooperation, believe in free and open exchange of ideas, of goods, of services, of the technologies that keep us all strong together and safe and secure," she said.
Still, the American president's tariffs are a challenge for G7 nations. A partial reprieve he offered most countries and the EU expires next month. He's in the midst of negotiating deals with several participating countries, including Japan and Canada. He said he reached an agreement with the UK in May.
A senior U.S. official said Trump was eager to pursue his trade goals and take part in working sessions at the G7 on migrants and drug smuggling, in addition to other topics.
Hillman said there's no denying that countries are feeling the impact of Trump's tariffs. "Those are issues I'm sure that the president will want to talk to leaders about, and leaders will want to exchange their views, as well," she said.
Yet, Trump will be hard-pressed to play the role of peacemaker, after boasting, repeatedly, that existing conflicts would not have started had he won a second consecutive term.
And while tariffs are likely to come up in individual sit-downs, world leaders were already aiming to avoid a public clash with Trump like the one that unfolded in the infamous 2018 photo, Lipsky said.
They have a very clear objective this time, he added, which has not always been the case.
"You have the leaders of the world's largest advanced democracies in one room," Lipsky said. "And if they can't coordinate on some signal to both the Israelis and the Iranians, then they'll never be able to do it."