Crime Is Plummeting. We Can Do More.

New York Times

14 hours ago

America is in the midst of a historic decline in crime. In 2023, murders fell 10 percent, which was then the largest annual drop since reliable records began in 1960. Last year, the country very likely set another record, with a 15 percent drop. This year, murders are on track to set yet another record, having fallen about 20 percent in major cities. Shootings, robberies and thefts have also plummeted.
These declines have erased the spike in crime that occurred during and after the Covid-19 pandemic. Indeed, the murder rate in 2025 could end up being lower than it has been at any other point in at least 65 years. In terms of violent crime, modern America may be safer than it has been in decades, based on data collected by the crime analyst Jeff Asher.
The U.S. murder rate is on track to fall to a 65-year low in 2025
12 murders per 100,000 people
10
Covid pandemic
8
2020
6.7
6
4
2025
4.0
(estimate)
2
0
1960
1970
2000
1980
2020
1990
2010
Sources: F.B.I.; Real-Time Crime Index
The U.S. murder rate is on track to fall to a 65-year low in 2025
12 murders per 100,000 people
10
8
2020
6.7
Covid pandemic
6
4
2025
4.0
(estimate)
2
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2020
2010
Sources: F.B.I.; Real-Time Crime Index
Crime is down in Washington, D.C., too, contrary to President Trump's claims this week that it is a hotbed of violence. Although the city's murder rate remains far too high, it is now comparable to what it was before the pandemic.
America's leaders typically rush to move on from a crisis once it is over, but we want to pause on the recent surge of violent crime and its reversal. We see two central lessons from this period that can help policymakers reduce crime even further and make progress against other societal ills.
The first lesson is the importance of public trust and stability. Think back, as unpleasant as it may be, to 2020: The virus was spreading. People could not visit family members and friends. They could not go to churches, libraries or restaurants. Children were stuck at home and saw their friends only on screens. Weddings, funerals and graduations were canceled.
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