Trump-Putin Alaska summit: What's on the agenda and what's at stake?

Al Jazeera

3 days ago

United States President Donald Trump and Russia's President Vladimir Putin are set to meet in Anchorage, Alaska, on Friday in a bid to find common ground that could lead to a lasting ceasefire deal in Russia's three-year-long war on Ukraine.
The highly anticipated meeting is the latest in Trump's numerous, but so far unsuccessful, attempts to end the Ukraine war and keep the promises he made on the campaign trail last year, when he claimed he would end the conflict within 24 hours if elected.
It also marks the first time in a decade that Putin will visit the US, as well as the first-ever visit of a Russian leader to Alaska.
While President Trump has tried to downplay expectations ahead of the meeting, he also warned on Thursday that Russia could face 'serious consequences' if Putin did not agree to a ceasefire.
Here's what to know about the Alaska meeting:
When and where are Trump and Putin meeting?
Both leaders will meet at the US military's Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska.
The time of the meeting is scheduled for about 11:30am Alaska time (19:30 GMT), although this could change.
Accompanying Russian delegation members include: Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Defence Minister Andrei Belousov, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov, and Special Presidential Envoy on Foreign Investment and Economic Cooperation Kirill Dmitriev.
It is not yet clear who will accompany Trump for the meeting from the US side.
Are Zelenskyy and European leaders attending?
No, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will not attend the Alaska meeting, nor will European leaders.
Asked why Zelenskyy was not at the table, Trump chided the Ukrainian president at a White House news briefing on August 11, saying that Zelenskyy had ruled for three years and 'nothing happened' in terms of ending the war.
'I would say he could go, but he's gone to a lot of meetings,' Trump said.
Analyst Neil Melvin of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a London-based think tank, said Europe was essentially an observer in a matter that could determine its fate because it lacked leverage. '​European leaders have been relegated to the margins with the [European Union] seen by Trump and Putin as largely irrelevant,' he said.
Ahead of the meeting, on Wednesday, Trump, alongside US Vice President JD Vance, held a virtual meeting with Zelenskyy and other European leaders. Analysts say it was a final attempt on the part of the Europeans to steer the meeting in Ukraine's favour.
Zelenskyy joined the virtual meeting from Berlin. Other leaders who attended were from Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Finland and Poland. European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen and NATO chief Mark Rutte were also present.
What's the significance of Alaska as the venue?
Alaska, which is located northwest of the US mainland, is the closest point at which Russia and the US are neighbours. The US state is closer to Russia than it is to the US mainland. On the Russian side, it is closest to the autonomous Chukotka district.
Originally inhabited by Indigenous Americans, the region was first colonised by the old Russian empire in the 18th century. Due to the high costs of maintaining the faraway location, Moscow sold Alaska to the US in 1867 for $7.2m, the equivalent of $162m today. Russian influence still abounds in the region, visible in the Russian Orthodox churches still present, and even in the Russian surnames of some Alaskans.
The Elmendorf-Richardson base, where the meeting will be held, is also significant: It was originally an air force base built in 1940, during World War II. But its role expanded significantly during the Cold War that followed. The US was worried about possible Soviet attacks on Alaska, and thus built monitors and anti-aircraft systems to counter any threats. The airbase was an important part of that mission. The air squadrons based there are still positioned to intercept any Russian aircraft that might seek to enter US airspace.
Still, the US has not clarified why it chose Alaska as the venue for the summit.
What's on the agenda?
The two leaders will discuss the terms for a possible ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
On the agenda is how such a deal could look, including possible territorial concessions on either side.
Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Its military currently controls about 19 percent of Ukrainian land across Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Kherson and small parts of Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk provinces.
Ukraine controlled parts of Russia's Kursk region from August 2024 but has since lost most of the territory.
What land swaps could Trump and Putin discuss?
Trump, on Monday, suggested in a news briefing that Ukraine and Russia could swap territory in order to reach a land deal.
However, he walked back that suggestion on Tuesday at another briefing as his suggestion proved controversial across Europe. Trump promised to get back some Ukrainian territory.
'Russia occupied a big portion of Ukraine. They occupied prime territory. We're going to try to get some of that territory back for Ukraine,' he said.
As part of any swap deal, analysts believe that Putin will press for Ukraine to withdraw from the parts of Donetsk that its troops still control. That would give Russia complete control of the Donbas region, which includes Luhansk and Donetsk – Russia already controls almost all of Luhansk – in addition to Crimea and chunks of Kherson, Zaporizhia and other southern regions. It will also want Ukraine to relinquish the tiny part of Kursk in Russia that Kyiv's forces occupy.
In exchange, Russia might be willing to give up the small areas in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions under its control.
Moscow invaded and illegally occupied Crimea in March 2014. Pro-Russian militias seized parts of the Donbas starting from April 2014, triggering conflict with resisting Ukrainian troops. Much of the region was then taken over by invading Russian forces following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
What are Trump's expectations for the summit?
President Trump said on Monday that he expects this meeting to be a 'feel-type' conversation between him and Putin, one where he understands what the Russian leader wants.
A second meeting, he has said, is likely going to come from it soon and will include Zelenskyy and Putin, with Trump likely hosting it.
However, Trump sounded a more severe tone on Wednesday. He warned that if the Friday meeting ended without Russia agreeing to peace in Ukraine, there would be 'very severe consequences' for Russia.
Trump did not specify what US actions might be. He'd earlier threatened economic sanctions on Russia 'within 50 days' if Moscow did not end the war. However, the Alaska meeting was announced as the deadline of August 8 arrived, with no significant action from Washington.
Presently, Russia is under significant Western sanctions, including bans on its banks and its crude oil. In late July, the US slammed India with tariffs for buying Russian oil, and this week, US officials have warned of secondary sanctions on that country if Friday's talks fail.
What has Russia said it wants from the meeting?
Moscow presented a proposal to the US on August 6, last week, stating its requests, according to reporting by the Wall Street Journal.
Russia's asks remain similar to its stated goals in June 2024. Moscow says it will stop the war if:
Kyiv drops its ambitions to join NATO, and if the country disarms significantly.
If Kyiv pulls back and cedes all of the Donbas in return for Russia halting advances on Kherson and Zaporizhia, and handing back small occupied parts of Sumy and Kharkiv.
If Western sanctions are relaxed as part of a peace deal.
But Russian officials have since also indicated that they want any movement towards peace to also serve as a launchpad for improved ties with the US. Putin's delegation for the Alaska summit suggests that Russia might make economic offers – including the promise of investments in the US – to Trump.
What are Ukraine and Europe seeking from the talks?
Zelenkyy has in the past said that Ukraine will not cede territory.
He reiterated that on August 9, in light of Putin's proposal to Trump, and stated that Ukraine would not 'gift land to the occupier' and that it was impossible to do so under Ukrainian law.
Europe, meanwhile, has been nervous about what Trump might agree to. Following the three-way call between Trump, Zelenskyy and European leaders on Wednesday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and the UK's Prime Minister Keir Starmer outlined what the European coalition wanted:
That the US not agree to any territorial deals without Ukraine being present
Ukraine needs credible security guarantees as part of any peace deal, that is, a guarantee of non-invasion by Russia.
Zelenskyy reiterated those calls and added that Ukraine should still be allowed to join NATO if a ceasefire is reached. He also said sanctions should be strengthened if Russia fails to agree to a peace deal on Friday.
What could the outcome be?
Some analysts are hopeful about the prospects of the beginnings of a peace deal emerging from the summit. The big question, they say, is whether Ukraine will agree to a possible deal between the two leaders in Alaska, if its terms are unplatable to Kyiv.
However, others, like Melvin of RUSI, think this meeting is ultimately a play by Russia to stall the US from making good on its sanctions threat, while allowing Moscow to keep advancing militarily in Ukraine.
'Putin believes that he can win [and] is anxious to stall the United States and any further pressure it may seek to put on Russia,' he said. 'The most likely outcome of the summit is then that there may be some announcements of steps forward, but the war will continue.'