Violence at record high since WWII, experts warn of ongoing conflicts

NZ Herald

22-05-2025

'The level of violence happening is certainly at one of its highs since the World War II,' said Clionadh Raleigh, the founder and director of ACLED.
The only year to exceed 56 was 2023, which recorded 59 armed conflicts, according to certain estimates.
'More organised violence is happening in more places, leading us to consider that we are now in a more violent time,' said Ms Raleigh.
Experts estimate that at least one in every six people is exposed to some level of conflict.
This conflict is not only spread out over a larger area, but has become more deadly and more complex, according to The Telegraph 's analysis of data from ACLED and the Uppsala Conflict Data Programme.
Between 2010 and 2019, the global death toll resulting from armed conflict was more than 953,000. In only half the time, between 2020 and the end of 2024, the number of fatalities has reached nearly 10.5 million.
The increase can largely be attributed to the eruption of three major conflicts – the military coup in Myanmar in 2021, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the Israel-Hamas War, which began in 2023.
These conflicts were responsible for more than half the fatalities recorded in 2024.
Since 2021, the annual number of deaths from armed conflict has hovered about 200,000, peaking at more than 310,000 in 2022 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The only other instance in recent history when the global death toll exceeded 200,000 was at the peak of the Rwandan genocide in 1994, when more than 800,000 people were killed in one year.
The number of deaths dropped slightly in 2023, which can largely be attributed to the end of the conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray region, which accounted for 60% of the battle-related deaths in 2021 and 2022.
According to The Telegraph's analysis, the death toll from conflict was most widespread in 2024, meaning every region of the world had a comparable share of deaths resulting from armed conflict, with no single region dominating.
Deaths resulting from conflicts in Europe – largely owing to the war in Ukraine – made up 33% of the total.
Fatalities from armed conflict in Africa made up 27% and wars in the Middle East, including the war in Gaza as well as the Sudanese civil war, accounted for 19%.
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Europe, the Americas, Asia and Oceania, and Africa (excluding 1994) all recorded higher average death tolls over the past five years than at any other point since 1989, when UCDP started recording data.
The only region where this has not been the case is the Middle East, which recorded higher death tolls between 2014 and 2019 during the peak of the Syrian civil war. Although the death toll in the Middle East has been rising because of the war in Gaza, experts don't expect it to exceed the scale it was at 10 years ago.
Complexities of conflict
While death toll is an important metric in understanding the severity of a conflict, it does not tell the whole story.
Raleigh explained that ACLED's data analysis included other factors, such as dispersion, impact on civilians and fragmentation, which could inform the severity of a crisis.
For example, while Ukraine recorded the most conflict-related deaths at more than 67,000 in 2024, it was ranked 14th on ACLED's index.
Raleigh said that this largely came down to the different groups involved in the war.
'It's not at all a fragmented war – very few classic interstate wars are fragmented,' she said, referring to the number of actors involved in the conflict.
However, in other conflicts, such as in Myanmar – which was ranked second on ACLED's index despite having a lower death toll than Ukraine – there were hundreds of armed groups engaged in dozens of different battles.
'In places like Myanmar, there are 50 new groups that appear every week while others fall out and others reassemble. There's a constant churn,' said Raleigh, adding that the more groups involved the harder it could be to reach a resolution.
A conservative estimate puts the number of new armed groups in Myanmar, previously known as Burma, close to 3000 since 2021, although not all remain operational. This figure doesn't include the groups that existed before the coup and have been fighting the central military as well as each other on and off for decades.
The only place to exceed Myanmar on the index was Gaza, which ACLED reported to be the 'most dangerous and violent place in the world in 2024'.
More than 80% of the Palestinian population was exposed to conflict last year and at least 35,000 fatalities were recorded as Israel continued its campaign in Gaza following the attack by Hamas on October 7 the previous year.
ACLED is generally seen as the leading source for conflict data, but other organisations have their own methods of evaluating conflict and ranking countries.
The Global Peace Index (GPI), which categorises nations from most to least peaceful, ranked the Palestinian territories as 145th (19th place) and Myanmar as 148th (16th).
Instead, Yemen topped the list as 'the least peaceful country in the world' in 2024, which GPI attributed to the internal strife exacerbated by the Israel-Hamas War – specifically attacks from the Yemen-based Houthis against Israeli targets, which prompted retaliatory missile, drone and air strikes from the US and UK.
'An upward trend'
Another metric used to analyse conflict is the impact on civilians, both in terms of the number of civilians killed as well as the number whose quality of life is affected.
Siri Aas Rustad, the research director at Peace Research Institute Oslo, said: 'Most people who are affected by conflict are not killed.
'They lose health facilities, they lose schooling, they live in fear, they suffer food insecurity,' she said, noting that this figure was also trending upward at present.
'The share of people living in conflict has increased substantially and is on the rise since the 1990s. It has doubled from 1990 until now.'
Based on previous trends, Rustad predicted that the world was 'heading towards more violence', but that eventually the tide would turn.
'We'll probably see a sustained high level for several years. Whether that's two years or five years is hard to say, but it will probably go down,' she said.
'All conflicts end, it just takes time. Think of it in terms of cycles and right now we're in a bad cycle.'