NASCAR Cup Series at Watkins Glen odds, predictions: Shane van Gisbergen leads, ahead of *record scratch* a teenager!?

New York Times

21 hours ago

The NASCAR Cup Series is in New York this week to race at one of the drivers' favorite tracks: Watkins Glen International. With just three races left before the playoffs, the stakes are high for those who haven't yet clinched a win. But can anyone challenge Shane van Gisbergen's road-course dominance? Who else is favored to have a great race this Sunday?
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As we do every week, we're plying our NASCAR experts with our burning questions — starting with the teenager near the top of the odds board.
Take it away, guys!
Let's start with the elephant on the odds board: Connor Zilisch is in second place!? What??
Jeff: While statistics aren't kept on this sort of thing, I would have to bet Zilisch is the first teenager to have the second-best odds of winning a Cup Series race. He's probably also the first to be this high with only three Cup Series starts and an average finish of 23.7. That said, I completely get why the sportsbooks did this — and it's also a reason you should stay far away from Zilisch this week.
Obviously, oddsmakers are protecting themselves from the possibility of a brilliant road-course racer — one who has shown he's capable of competing with Shane van Gisbergen — winning a Cup race out of nowhere. But that's not likely to happen. Yes, Zilisch won his Xfinity Series debut on this very track last year. Yes, Zilisch has five Xfinity wins this year, including two on road courses. Expecting him to go out-run the Cup field and win, though? Maybe next year, but it doesn't feel like he has quite enough experience to contend yet. At Circuit of the Americas earlier this year, he started 14th and was spun on the first lap, but later drove from outside the top 30 back into the top 15 under the green flag before later getting in a wreck. So yes, he has speed. He might finish in the top 10. But again, winning a Cup race is another level.
Jordan: Name recognition will likely prompt some less savvy gamblers (not anyone who reads this weekly preview) to throw a few dollars on the prodigious teenager who's tearing up the Xfinity Series and is at his best on road courses. But to think he realistically has the second-best chance of winning on Sunday is a stretch.
Who is quietly heating up heading into the postseason? What driver (or team) should we keep an eye on?
Jeff: I'm not sure how 'quiet' this is, but Chase Briscoe has emerged as a legitimate Championship 4 contender. Since stretching his fuel to win at Pocono, Briscoe has scored the second-most points in the series, has led the second-most laps and is tied for the most top-fives (four in seven races). That includes three second-place finishes in the last four races. It appears Briscoe and his No. 19 team — formerly Martin Truex Jr.'s car — have finally gelled and are capable of running toward the front on a weekly basis. Considering Briscoe already made the Round of 12 last year in a Stewart-Haas Racing car when that organization was shutting down, a deep playoff run should be expected at this point.
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Jordan: Briscoe is certainly among the drivers who've jumped out. He looks every bit capable of going on a deep playoff run, and let's not forget he's with a team with a championship pedigree. Let's also give a nod to Bubba Wallace. A week after his impressive Brickyard 400 win, he followed by charging to a sixth-place finish at Iowa and is heading to a stretch of tracks where he has a good chance to add to his victory tally. Looking ahead to the playoffs, the 10-race slate sets up rather favorably for him.
You said this might not be the track to expect a new winner to clinch a playoff berth, but what's one bold prediction you have for the race?
Jeff: If there is a new winner, it will be Ty Gibbs — not AJ Allmendinger or Chris Buescher, who out-dueled van Gisbergen in this race last season. Gibbs was the only car that looked close to competing with SVG in Mexico City (but got bit by the timing of a caution), then ran second on the Chicago Street Course and was seventh at Sonoma. This is perhaps Gibbs' final best chance to make the playoffs this year, and he may very well do it (but I'm still picking SVG, as you can see below).
Jordan: Kyle Busch snaps his two-plus-year winless streak, punching his playoff ticket a year after not qualifying. At Circuit of the Americas in the spring, the first road course on the schedule, Busch had speed all weekend and nearly won. This time, he closes out, earning what will be a popular victory for a driver not accustomed to being cheered for winning.
Who is your favorite to win this week? Will the SVG dominance continue? Is he too strong a favorite?
Jeff: SVG is a ridiculously heavy favorite (+125), but he's also my pick. Last month, he won the Chicago and Sonoma races as the heavy favorite, so there's no reason for the books to list him as having anything but absurd odds. I can't go against him here. People will point out he lost to Buescher in this race last year — OK, and? SVG was driving a Kaulig Racing car in a part-time effort. Now he's a full-time Cup Series driver with three straight road-course wins. I can't come up with a valid reason why he won't win again. I've heard the 'Oh, well, this is more of a traditional NASCAR road course' talk. Again, so was Sonoma. No one could touch him there. I'll go with SVG again, even though the chance of one driver winning four straight road races seems tough.
Jordan: SVG is the heavy favorite this weekend, and deservedly so. But let's use this space to remind everyone about AJ Allmendinger, who's also quite stout on road courses — especially Watkins Glen, the site of his first career win. SVG may appear unbeatable on road courses, but that is inaccurate, as was proven earlier this season at COTA and last year here at Watkins Glen. And Allmendinger is a good bet to be the driver to end SVG's reign.
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Who is a long shot you like?
Jeff: I've been puzzled by Austin Cindric's lack of pace on road courses lately. He finished 2024 with back-to-back top-10s on road courses — which makes sense, because he's usually good on those types of tracks! — only to look pretty far off this season. Still, putting him at +8000? That seems too low. Anyway, there are plenty of other medium-value drivers who aren't quite long shots and could win: Chase Briscoe at +2500 is shockingly low for the guy who just ran with SVG at Sonoma, Alex Bowman at +4000 won the Chicago street course last season and Kyle Busch at +5000 is a two-time Watkins Glen winner.
Jordan: Last year, Zane Smith surprised everyone when the then-rookie finished fifth in his first-ever Watkins Glen start. So in a race that doesn't feel all that wide open, tabbing Smith (+11000) as a dark horse has some credence — especially with not too many other viable candidates.
Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Shane van Gisbergen: Chris Graythen / Getty Images)
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