The Memo: Trump grapples with prospect of all-out Israel-Iran war
President Trump faces a volatile, fast-moving global crisis as Israel and Iran teeter on the brink of all-out war.
The situation is shifting by the moment in the wake of Israel's attack on multiple sites in Iran in the early hours of Friday, local time. Iran launched a retaliatory barrage against Israel later on Friday.
Iran's ambassador to the United Nations said that Israel's initial attacks had killed 78 and injured more than 320. Iranian officials have said they regard Israel's actions as a declaration of war.
There has been no such explicit declaration from the Israeli side, but clearly the two nations are in the middle of a grave clash that could easily spiral even further.
Such a confrontation has the potential to scramble American politics, too.
In some ways, it already has.
The price of oil spiked as soon as the Israeli attack happened, rising by more than 8 percent at one point on Friday.
An elevated oil price for any significant length of time could feed inflation and dampen economic growth. That unpleasant combination is one reason why the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by roughly 1.8 percent on Friday. The broader based S&P 500 declined by more than one percent.
To be sure, a cooling of tensions between Israel and Iran could happen, calming oil prices and producing an instant rebound on the financial markets. But such a de-escalation is far from certain. The more negative scenario — military actions by two foreign nations causing economic trouble in the U.S. — would be an especially galling development for Trump.
Then there are the intertwined issues of Trump's general attitude toward Israel, his pursuit of a fresh nuclear deal with Iran, and his broader skepticism of interventionist military policies overseas.
Trump is on one level a fervent support of Israel. He often boasts to pro-Israel crowds about the actions he took in his first term, including moving the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and facilitating agreements to normalize relations between Israel and two Gulf nations, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.
But Trump has had a checkered relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump reportedly took umbrage at Netanyahu accepting former President Biden's victory in the 2020 presidential election. In a 2023 speech, Trump complained that Netanyahu had 'let us down' by backing out of what Trump said was a planned joint action to kill Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. The U.S. went ahead and killed Soleimani.
In Trump's second term, the president pressed Israel to agree to a ceasefire in the first couple of months of his term. But he also outraged Palestinians and their supporters by suggesting Gazans could be pushed out of the strip of land that is home — which Trump proposed could be redeveloped as a tourist destination.
Similar complexities surround Trump's suggestion that there could be a new nuclear deal with Iran.
He had excoriated the 2015 deal that was made during former President Obama's tenure, withdrawing the United States from it in 2018, during his first term.
But he has recently been pursuing a new agreement, and at one point it was reported that the U.S. might be willing to countenance some element of uranium enrichment on Iranian soil. Trump has more recently said that is not the case.
The latest round of talks involving Trump's negotiator Steve Witkoff and Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, had been set for Sunday. Trump, on Thursday at the White House, responded to what were then rumors of an Israeli attack on Iran by saying, 'I don't want [Israel] going in, because I think that would blow it.'
When the attack went ahead, there was instant speculation that Netanyahu was seeking to vaporize any hope of a U.S.-Iran deal.
This thesis was strengthened in the immediate wake of the attack when Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a statement emphasizing that 'Israel took unilateral action against Iran.'
But that all changed by the next day.
Trump, always sensitive to any suggestion that he has been outflanked or sidelined, seemed to take exception to a Wall Street Journal reporter's question about whether the U.S. had been given a 'heads-up' by Netanyahu, insisting that the White House knew all about the attack in advance.
Some of his allies also advanced the idea that the earlier expression of misgivings had been a tactical sleight-of-hand intended to make the Iranians think an Israeli attack would not come.
In any event, the Iranians have now pulled out of the talks. Trump, on Truth Social, posted that he had offered Iran the chance to reach a new deal in recent months 'but they just couldn't get there. Now they have, perhaps, a second chance!'
In the short term, it appears extremely unlikely that Iran would sign onto a deal on Trump's terms in the wake of an Israeli attack. Such a move would surely look to many in the Islamic Republic and the rest of the Middle East like a humiliation.
Trump is also navigating between his instinctual backing of Israel and his more isolationist tendencies. Both impulses have their advocates in different parts of the Republican universe.
Among office holders, the views expressed in recent days by Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas) were typical. Graham said that if Iran continued to balk at a nuclear deal, the U.S. should 'go all-in to help Israel finish the job.' Cruz said, 'Israel is acting to defend itself. I stand with Israel.'
But in the broader MAGA universe, prominent figures including Tucker Carlson and Matt Walsh are exponentially more skeptical.
Carlson inveighed against 'warmongers' who wanted 'direct US military involvement in a war with Iran,' on X on Friday. Walsh, on the same platform, wrote, 'Israel is its own country and perfectly capable of taking care of itself. We do not need to be involve in this and should not be.'
While some dismiss Carlson and Walsh as mere media figures, they have a combined X following of roughly 20 million people.
The political impact of the current crisis is impossible to predict at this point. It is certainly possible that it could rebound to Trump's advantage, especially if the intensity of the confrontation wanes quickly.
In the very short term, Friday's escalating crisis in the Middle East saw a big story from the previous day that was to Democrats' advantage – the handcuffing of Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) after he sought to question Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem – fade toward the margins.
But there are dangerous waters churning, and any missteps by Trump could cost him dearly.
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Fox News
21 minutes ago
- Fox News
Golden Knights PARACHUTE into parade
All times eastern FOX News Radio Live Channel Coverage WATCH LIVE: Trump's US Army Grand Military Parade kicks off in Washington DC
Politico
26 minutes ago
- Politico
Israel Fights Also for Us
When a society can no longer distinguish between good and evil, between victim and perpetrator, it gives up. This dynamic is one of the great constants of human history. It is a lesson people in free societies — and people in totalitarian societies who yearn to be free — should keep in mind during the climactic showdown underway in the Middle East. Israel has struck a blow to prevent Iran from developing nuclear bombs — weapons that it might credibly use toward its stated goal of removing Israel from the planet. Make no mistake: This is not simply a matter of regional security. Nor should it be a proxy for whether one supports or opposes the current Israeli government's policy on Gaza or other subjects. This conflict is a central front in a global contest in which the forces of tyranny and violence in recent years have been gaining ground against the forces of freedom, which too often are demoralized and divided. In a world full of bad actors, Iran is the most aggressive and dangerous totalitarian force of our time. Its leaders seek to weaken and destroy free society, democracy and human rights with Russian and Chinese support. In Iran, women are systematically oppressed and abused. Homosexuals are murdered. Those who think differently are imprisoned and tortured. In Tehran, the cynical abuse of the civilian population in Gaza as human shields is also cold-bloodedly conceived and financed. According to official state doctrine, the primary goal of the mullahs in Tehran is the annihilation of the State of Israel. Ayatollah Khamenei has described Israel as a 'cancerous tumor.' And clocks in the streets of Tehran celebrate countdowns to the 'destruction of Israel.' But Israel is only the first target. Once Israel falls, Europe and America will be the focus. Radical Sunni and Shiite Islamism has been preparing for this for decades. The fatwa against Salman Rushdie, 9/11, the attacks in Paris, the caliphate of ISIS — each event was a warning sign. Only those who did not want to see the signs are surprised today. The attacks are directed against our values, our way of life. It is therefore surprising that Israel is not being celebrated worldwide for its historic, extremely precise and necessary strike against Iranian nuclear weapons facilities and for the targeted killing of leading terrorists, but that the public response is dominated by anti-Israel propaganda. The intelligence and precision of Israel's actions are not admired but are instead used here and there to perpetuate blatantly antisemitic stereotypes. This attitude is characterized not only by racist undertones, but also by a strange self-forgetfulness. If the perpetrator-victim reversal that has been repeatedly observed since Oct. 7 applies even in the most obvious case — Iran — then this can only be interpreted to mean that we are in the process of losing the culture war, which in reality has long since become a war of civilizations. And we seem to have no problem with that. It is what Michel Houellebecq called 'submission' in his visionary novel 10 years ago. As someone who has 40 years' experience as a journalist and publishing executive, I believe every government should be questioned critically about all the details of its policies — above all on matters of war and its consequences. But those details should not be allowed to obscure larger historical truths. Perhaps a German of my generation has a useful vantage point. Born in 1963, I grew up in a country and continent still shadowed by World War II and its crimes, including an effort by Germany to eradicate Jews across Europe. The first half of my journalism career saw freedom on the march. The Soviet Union collapsed, authoritarian governments across Eastern Europe were routed, Germany was reunited under democracy. The second half of my career, however, with authoritarianism on the rise in all directions — with governments hostile to the very idea of journalism, as well as democracy, pluralism, rule of law and basic standards of decency. These unwelcome developments highlighted how fragile the triumphs of the late 20th century may be in the 21st. The contest between free societies and murderous tyrants is enduring. That's why warnings of dangerous escalation that can be heard from politicians in the West are particularly misplaced. The argument is as stale as it is false. Those warning of escalation are to blame for Vladimir Putin being on the verge of winning his terrible war of conquest in Ukraine. And those warning of escalation are to blame for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. This could have been prevented with decisive resistance from the West in the first days of the attack. Dictators decide for themselves when to escalate. Usually when they do not encounter enough strength and resistance. This also applies to Iran. If Israel does not achieve its goals — destruction of the nuclear facilities, maximum weakening of the terrorist regime and, ideally, the removal of the mullahs — the world will quickly look very different. China will seize this historic opportunity to annex Taiwan sooner than expected. Largely without resistance. The moment is favorable. Because America and Europe cannot win a three-front war and therefore cannot fight it. But if the anti-democratic triangle — China, Russia, Iran — succeeds in this coup, a different, non-democratic world order will prevail. That is why America and Europe, in their own interests alone, must stand united with Israel and do everything in their power to ensure that this historic liberation is achieved. This morning, my son asked me a question: 'In the near future, will Israel become more like us, living in peace, or will we become more like Israel?' It depends. It depends on us.
Chicago Tribune
28 minutes ago
- Chicago Tribune
Thousands attend No Kings events in Lake County
A former combat soldier and a onetime Republican who got his first job through the late Sen. Robert Dole, R-Kansas, were among more than 8,500 people in Lake County participating in No Kings events protesting the actions of President Donald Trump. Holding a sign that read, 'fought for freedom not for a throne' was U.S. Army veteran John McCullough of Grayslake who said he spent six years in the military, including tours of duty in the first Gulf War and on the Demilitarized Zone separating South and North Korea. 'I watched a dictator from a distance,' McCullough said at a rally in Gurnee, referring to the ruler of North Korea. 'We don't need a king whose father paid for him to be a draft dodger. That's not what my brothers and sisters bled and died for.' John Anderson of Beach Park sat in a wheelchair at the Gurnee rally wearing a shirt with the words 'Go Kemp' referring to former U.S. Rep. Jack Kemp, R-N.Y., who was Dole's running mate in 1992. Anderson said he is no longer a Republican. 'I was a Republican precinct committeeman in three states — Kansas, Minnesota and Illinois,' Anderson said. 'The Republican Party is no longer a party with a platform. They're about one person.' Anderson and McCullough were among more than 8,500 people who participated in No Kings Day rallies Saturday in Lake Country towns Gurnee, Highland Park and Buffalo Grove as they showed their displeasure with the way Trump is governing the country. More than 4,500 people attended the rally in Gurnee, 2,500 in Highland Park and 1,500 in Buffalo Grove, according to organizers at those locations. Along with the three Lake County events, there were nearly 2,000 protests planned across the country Saturday from city blocks to small towns to courthouse steps and community parks. There was also a demonstration in Washington, D.C. where Trump attended a military parade. Orchestrated by the 50501 Movement, organizers said the group picked the 'No Kings' name to support democracy and speak out against what they call the authoritarian actions of the Trump administration. The name 50501 stands for 50 states, 50 protests, one movement. Many of the approximately 4,500 participants in Gurnee—filling two blocks on Grand Avenue and one on the adjoining Hunt Club Road—held signs indicating displeasure with Trump's leadership style. Signs read, 'No kings in America since 1776,' 'Rejecting kings since 1776,' 'Immigrants don't invade, they rebuild what history has broken' and more. There were no planned speakers but chants broke out regularly. Katie Salyer, a Gurnee resident and one of the organizers from Northeast Lake County Indivisible—the Lake County Democratic Party was also a sponsor—was holding a megaphone leading part of the crowd. 'What does democracy look like?' Salyer asked. 'This is what democracy looks like,' the crowd responded several times in a row. Salyer said the chants were a tool to keep the crowd active and orderly. There was also a political purpose. 'It gives the people a voice,' she said. Barb Wigginton of Fox Lake said she was there to make a point about behavior of some of the immigration officers carrying out Trump's deportation policies. Her sign read, 'Melt ICE,' referring the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents. 'Everyone should be treated with respect,' she said. 'Do what you have to do, but be kind.' Joan Zahnle was one of the Highland Park rally organizers. She said the crowd consisted of people of all ages from parents with young children to teens and older individuals. There was a dual purpose. The rally was combined with a food drive. 'We have four SUVs loaded with food going to pantries in Waukegan and North Chicago,' she said. Carolyn Pinta, the organizer of the Buffalo Grove event, said it there was a party atmosphere with music and dancing. The first participant arrived 45 minutes before the noon starting time with her 99-year-old mother attending her first political rally. Lake County Republican Chair Keith Brin said in an email Trump is anything but a king. He was fairly elected and is enforcing laws passed by Congress just like Democratic presidents administered them before him, Brin said. 'The President hasn't made up laws like a dictator,' Brin said in the email. 'If the protesters don't like the laws, change the laws. Instead of figuring out why the majority of the country disagrees with them, Democrats protest against an imaginary dictatorship that has been routinely checked by Congress and the courts.'
