2025 Open Championship long shots, sleepers and prop picks: Jordan Spieth comeback?
Advertisement
The betting favorite hasn't won the Open Championship since Jordan Spieth won in 2017. Three of the last six winners of the Open Championship have had odds equal to or longer than +6000 to win. The biggest long shot to hit the board during that time is Brian Harman, who won in 2023 as a +12500 longshot when Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy were the favorites going in.
The betting favorites are once again Scheffler (+500) and McIlroy (+700). While they are arguably the two best golfers on the planet at this moment, I think we can all agree that no one is so dominant that it's not worth looking at long shots who could hit the board. We are coming off a long-shot win at the U.S. Open with J.J. Spaun (+15000) beating out Adam Scott (+15000) and Sam Burns (+8000).
Picking the right long shot can give a profitable hedge bet during the tournament, like we did in this column with Sam Burns as a pre-U.S. Open long shot. That hedge to Spaun proved to be a nice bankroll builder heading into the later part of the season.
Jordan Spieth (+6000) is returning from an injury and may be a little sleep deprived after welcoming a new baby into the family this week. Even with those issues, picking up my eighth-ranked player for the week at +6000 is too good to pass up. Spieth has had a very good ball-striking year, even with his big tee-shot misses factored in. He has gained strokes on approach in four straight measured events, and he has gained strokes around the green in six straight measured events. Players only made it up and down from off the green at just over 50 percent here in 2019, while getting up and down from the sand only 37 percent of the time. Spieth can pick up an advantage on most of the field in both of those categories.
Cameron Young (+8000) has three straight made cuts and two top-eight finishes in his three tries at the Open Championship. He has been playing better lately with two top-four finishes in his last four tournaments. Young has yet to win on the PGA Tour despite contending on multiple occasions. He seems calmer at the end of majors than he does in the other tournaments, where he is usually favored to win against whomever he is battling.
Advertisement
Aaron Rai (+9000) hits over 74 percent of his fairways while hitting almost 70 percent of his greens in regulation. He has been very good around the greens this year, picking up almost 1/3 of a stroke while his putter has continued to be hit-or-miss. I can see Rai pulling a Spaun this week, even if he doesn't quite have the firepower that Spaun possesses.
Cameron Smith (+10000) won the Open Championship at St Andrews as one of the darlings of the betting world. We saw his odds shrink during the run-up to that major, and it still felt good cashing in +2000 tickets if you missed the early boat. Smith has struggled in major championships since he moved to LIV Golf, but he has been playing better lately. He has gained strokes on approach, around the green and with his putter in each of his last two tournaments. He was among the leaders here in 2019 before struggling on Sunday, and could be a nice surprise at this price with his around-the-green and putting game.
Nick Taylor (+15000) hits over 65 percent of his fairways, and he hits the green in regulation at over 71 percent. He has missed one cut since the Houston Open with seven top-25 finishes. He won the Sony Open in January and has the iron game to win any golf tournament around the world.
Yes (-145): Emiliano Grillo pulled off this feat in 2019, and I have been getting crushed betting against hole-in-ones at every major championship. What better way to wake up on the East Coast than to the news of a hole-in-one hitting at the Open Championship while I was fast asleep.
Jon Rahm (+230) finished T11 here in 2019 and was in a solid position to make a run on Sunday before faltering with a Sunday 75 that sent him outside of the top 10. He has three top-seven finishes at the Open Championship since 2019, and he has gained strokes across the board in his last two Open Championships. He is going to win an Open Championship during his career, and this might be his best opportunity. He finished second at LIV Andalucia after a furious comeback on Sunday. He gained strokes across the board for the week and looked to be in complete control of his game.
Advertisement
Viktor Hovland (+500) has one glaring hole in his game (around the green), but it won't keep me from believing in him this week. Hovland has been lights out with his approach game of late. He has gained over 6.3 strokes on approach in three straight tournaments, which even includes a withdrawal through injury at the Travelers. He has three top-13 finishes at the Open Championship in his career.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+650) was in the mix for a decent finish at Royal Portrush in 2019 before fading on Sunday to a T20. He has been in excellent form lately, and by contending at the Scottish Open on Saturday and Sunday, he helped me cash a nice hedge ticket on my New Jersey native fave, Chris Gotterup. Fitzpatrick has gained strokes off the tee, on approach and around the green in three straight tournaments.
Rory McIlroy (-135) famously missed the cut here in 2019 after being the pre-tournament story all week. He proved the old saying that you can't win a tournament on Thursday, but you can lose it. He comes into this week in a better frame of mind since he won the career grand slam at the 2025 Masters. He needed to reevaluate his goals and motivations, and it seems he has focused a lot of his efforts on the Open. He struggled with his driver on Thursday at the Scottish Open, but settled down the rest of the week and made up for it on the greens, where he has gained almost 14 strokes combined over his last two tournaments.
Xander Schauffele (+225) has been inconsistent for most of the season. He has struggled with his putter and has been inconsistent with his driver. He popped last week with his irons by gaining over nine strokes on approach. He is just a little bit off with his putter, but he doesn't look lost like Daniel Berger looks right now. Schauffele is the defending Open Champion, and he has never missed a cut at it. His ability to hit multiple shots off the tee and his excellent hands around the green mean he will be a factor more often than not.
Sepp Straka (+350): After missing the cut at St Andrews, Straka finished T2 and T22 the last two years at the Open Championship. He is having his best year on the PGA Tour and is coming off a week where he gained over 10 strokes combined around and on the greens at the Scottish Open.
Adam Scott (+250) has missed one cut at an Open Championship since finishing second in 2012. He has two top-15 finishes in the last three years. He is in excellent form coming in, gaining over 10 strokes combined on approach over his last three tournaments.
Cameron Young (+300)
Nick Taylor (+375 — Shop this number)
Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy: McIlroy (+138)
Advertisement
Ludvig Åberg vs. Bryson DeChambeau: Åberg (+110)
DeChambeau has struggled at the Open Championships outside of St Andrews. The slow greens and the luck of the rolls and bounces seem to be too much for him to handle at times. Åberg has been inconsistent this season, but he has gained strokes off the tee and on approach in five straight tournaments. He has struggled mightily around the green, but bounced back at the Scottish Open last week.
Tommy Fleetwood vs. Shane Lowry: Fleetwood (-145)
Robert MacIntyre vs. Viktor Hovland: Hovland (-125)
Collin Morikawa vs. Matt Fitzpatrick: Fitzpatrick (+105)
Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Jordan Spieth: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
39 minutes ago
- Yahoo
'Match-fixers should be banned for life'
Banned snooker player Mark King says players found guilty of match-fixing should be banned for life. "I don't think anyone should come back, if you're found guilty you should never ever be able to play again and I stand by that'," he told BBC Essex. The 51-year-old was first suspended by the sport's governing body in March 2023. That was after suspicious betting was reported on his match against Joe Perry in February that year at the Welsh Open, which King lost 4-0. Perry was not accused of any wrongdoing. King has always denied the charge and lost an appeal in May. He was ordered to pay over £113,000 in costs. He was found guilty of match-fixing in November 2024 and suspended until March 2028. The World Professional Billiards and Snooker Association said "there was no more serious breach of the rules than betting related match fixing" and it had "a long track record of thoroughly investigating such allegations". The WPBSA added there was evidence that King had been involved in fixing match results. "In this case there was strong evidence against King that necessitated action under the WPBSA's Conduct Regulations. This was vindicated by the findings of two independent KC Chaired Tribunals," a statement added. Strain on family King, who is a former Northern Ireland Open champion, said the situation had put a strain on his family. "I think the hardest person affected is my wife. She had a pacemaker fitted not long after the investigation started," he added. "It's really took the toll on her." The Essex player, who climbed to 11th in the world in 2003, is a recovering gambling addict. He said he has struggled with bad mental health since first being suspended. The WPBSA said the mental well-being of players was always a priority. "From the start of this case Mark King was offered a full range of support," they said. "This was both continued pastoral support, including the availability of counselling therapy through Sporting Chance, the Mental Health & Wellbeing partner of WPBSA Players, and signposting to pro-bono legal advice to ensure that he had access to informed and independent guidance." After receiving his suspension, King said he received a phone call from three-time world champion Mark Williams and a few other professional players. "One of the first players that rang me straight away was Mark Williams," King said. "He said, 'listen, I don't care what's going on. I'm just ringing up to see how you are.' That's a proper friend, we've known each other a long time." King said he was struggling to pay the costs. "Well, I obviously haven't got £113,000 in my back pocket for a start," he said. "I'm out of work because obviously I'm a 51-year-old man. I did a little bit of a labouring job but that was a bit too much for me." He said he was not sure if he would return to the sport when his suspension was lifted in just under three years. "I honestly don't know at this time," he added. "I love playing and I love the life of it and travelling all around the world and playing but at the same time I still feel hurt and angry." King loses appeal against snooker match-fixing ban Match-fixing scandal to Crucible champion - fall and rise of Zhao
New York Times
40 minutes ago
- New York Times
Explained: Why England will not take a knee before Euros semi-final after racial abuse of Jess Carter
This is an updated version of an article originally published on July 17. England players past and present have said not enough is being done to address racism in football. On Sunday, England announced they will not take the knee before their European Championship semi-final against Italy on Tuesday after defender Jess Carter spoke out about the online racist abuse she has been subjected to during the tournament. Advertisement The 27-year-old posted on Instagram on Sunday: 'From the start of the tournament, I have experienced a lot of racial abuse. Whilst I feel every fan is entitled to their opinion on performance and result, I don't agree or think it's ok to target someone's appearance or race.' England, who have taken the knee before all their games at these Euros as a gesture protesting systematic racism and police brutality towards Black people, will now not do so on Tuesday in solidarity with Carter's experience. The FA said before the tournament the decision to take the knee in Switzerland was 'player-led but with the full support from the FA'. Carter's words, as well as her confirmation she would be stepping back from using social media, were supported by her team-mates, the England head coach Sarina Wiegman, European football's governing body UEFA, as well as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the National Women's Soccer League and Gotham, Carter's club team. The Football Association (FA) also confirmed it had contacted UK police and social media platforms. 'We play football because we love the sport; we love playing,' England defender Lucy Bronze said at a press conference on Sunday. 'We do love connecting with our fans, social media is a great way to do that, but we don't need it. I think that's something that the platforms should be very aware of; nobody needs social media if you want to carry on in sport. 'It is sad that players are missing out on so many of these great messages. Someone like Jess, she's had an amazing tournament. I think she was one of our best players in the Netherlands game. She should be able to see messages from fans… 'It is sad that players are having to choose between this rollercoaster that social media sends us on.' England's players have decided that the message from kneeling is not being heard and that more needs to be done. Former England international Anita Asante shared a post supporting Carter, saying that it should not fall on Black and Brown people to answer the problem of racism. She said, 'Nothing will be done until it hits the powers that govern the game financially.' Enough is enough. — Anita Asante (@NicenNeetz) July 20, 2025 FIFA president Gianni Infantino posted a message to his Instagram on Sunday: 'We stand with Jess. We stand with every player and every individual who has suffered from racist abuse. No player should be discriminated against in any way, they should be free to be at their very best on the pitch.' Infantino also mentioned FIFA's Social Media Protection Service, aimed at using AI technology to help players avoid abuse online through a multistep process. Advertisement 'We will continue to collaborate and support confederations, FIFA Member Associations and their players,' Infantino said. 'In this instance, we will be offering our support with any further action required, as well as sharing data for appropriate action to be taken against any perpetrators.' Reiterating the England squad's desire to see more done to tackle racist abuse, Bronze said: 'There are small changes. You see people being held accountable, whether that's online, in stadiums. You do see bans happening. It's just not enough,' Bronze said. 'That's the point. Not enough is being done. There are small changes being made. If you look back 100 years to 50 years to 20 years to 10 years, there's always small steps forward, but that's the problem. 'It's always a small step. We don't want it to be small steps anymore.' Here, The Athletic explains what taking the knee means, the history behind it, and why Carter's experience has led to her England team-mates deciding not to do so on Tuesday. On Sunday, the England defender posted the following statement on Instagram. 'A message to the fans… From the start of the tournament I have experienced a lot of racial abuse. Whilst I feel every fan is entitled to their opinion on performance and result I don't agree or think it's ok to target someone's appearance or race. 'As a result of this I will be taking a step back from social media and leaving it to a team to deal with. 'As ever I am grateful for all of the support from the genuine fans but I am taking this measure to protect myself in a bid to keep my focus on helping the team anyway I can. 'Hopefully speaking out will make the people writing this abuse think twice so that others won't have to deal with it. 'We have made some historic changes with this Lionesses squad that I am so proud to be a part of and my hope is that by speaking out about this it will make another positive change for all. 'I'm now looking forward and focusing on putting all of my energy into helping my team.' Following Carter's statement on Sunday, Bronze spoke to journalists in a press conference while the Lionesses released a statement explaining that they would remain standing and not take the knee before the semi-final against Italy on Tuesday. 'We feel as a collective, is the message as strong as it used to be?' Bronze said. 'Is the message really hitting hard? Because it feels like it's not if these things are still happening… more needs to be done in football and society.' Bronze added: 'We want it to be: 'this is happening, there is change, and this is unacceptable'. There are no more small steps.' 'It is clear we and football need to find another way to tackle racism,' a statement from the Lionesses squad read. 'No one should have to endure such vile abuse, be that in football or any walk of life. Those behind this online poison must be held accountable.' Posting on X after the statement from Carter, Asante, who won 71 caps for England, spoke about being asked for interviews on the subject. 'I've spoken so many times publicly on this and nothing changes,' she said. Advertisement 'I always get asked: 'how can we solve racism?' but as Black and Brown people, we don't have the access to the levers of power and therefore we don't have the ability to dismantle the structures that uphold racism. 'Racism existed before social media and it will exist after it. It's in the stands, it's in the game & until action is taken seriously it's left to players and people in football, both on and off the pitch, to protect themselves. 'But let me be clear, the truth is that nothing will be done until it hits the powers that govern the game financially. 'I'm proud to be Black and l've had immense pride and privilege to represent England but how much more racist abuse do we have to take before serious action is taken? It goes without saying that I am sending all my support and love to Jess today. I stand with you, the team and others as always.' British Prime Minister Starmer said: 'There is no place for racism in football or anywhere in society. I stand with Jess, the Lionesses, and any players who have suffered racism, on and off the pitch.' Anti-discrimination group Kick It Out said it stands with Carter against'sickening behaviour' and, in a statement, pointed to social media companies needing to do more to combat racist abuse. 'Social media companies have failed to prevent exposure to this toxicity, and football must continue to use its collective power to hold them to account … More urgency is needed from everyone involved.' Taking the knee is a gesture designed to protest against systematic racism and police brutality towards Black people, and was popularised in football in 2020 following the killing of George Floyd, an unarmed Black man, by a white police officer in the United States in May of that year. Taking the knee in sport can be traced back to American football quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who did it during the traditional performance of the U.S. national anthem before an NFL game — players and coaches on the two teams usually line up to attention along opposite sides of the field for this — when with the San Francisco 49ers in September 2016. After remaining seated on the 49ers' bench during the anthem at a game the previous month, Kaepernick had explained: 'I am not going to stand up to show pride in a flag for a country that oppresses Black people and people of colour.' The FA said the team's choice to take the knee had been communicated to UEFA, European football's governing body and the organisation that runs the tournament. 'It's been something the team have done for several years,' the FA added. Premier League players took the knee following football's return from three months of covid-enforced lockdown in June 2020 and Women's Super League (WSL) teams then did the same during that competition's 2020-21 season. While the Premier League announced in August 2022 that players would stop kneeling before every match and instead 'select significant moments' to do so, WSL sides have continued the practice. It is often greeted by applause from supporters in the stands. Advertisement England's men's side took the knee before all their matches at the delayed 2020 European Championship. This was both applauded and booed by sections of the England fanbase, while several prominent MPs from the then-ruling Conservative Party voiced their opposition to it, including the home secretary at that time, Priti Patel. Team GB's women's football team, whose squad consisted solely of England players, confirmed their intention to perform the gesture at the similarly-delayed 2020 Olympic Games hosted by Tokyo, Japan that same summer. Explaining the decision, head coach Hege Riise said: 'The players and staff have been taking the knee at club and international level for over a year now, and we were all united in our decision to continue doing whatever we can to raise awareness of racism and discrimination in all its forms, standing in unity and solidarity with all those whose lives are affected. 'We are clear that taking the knee is an important symbol of peaceful protest against discrimination, injustice and inequality.' England's women have continued to take the knee since, including at the 2022 European Championship and the following year's World Cup. Taking the knee was seen frequently at the Euros in England three years ago, with teams including the Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden and Austria all doing it too. Germany and England both took the knee before facing one another in the final at Wembley. This summer, France, the Netherlands and Wales all joined opponents England in taking the knee in those three group-stage matches. However, these sides did not do it in their other Group D fixtures against one another. Sweden also took the knee before playing England in their quarter-final last week. Both host nation Switzerland and opponents Iceland took the knee before their Group A fixture on July 6, but it has not been commonplace at matches during the tournament. Teams must let UEFA know beforehand if they intend to take the knee and it is then incorporated into the 'running order' for the match, the governing body says. The history of English women's football in terms of racial issues is a complex one. In 2017, the FA apologised to forward Eni Aluko and midfielder Drew Spence after Mark Sampson, manager of the women's national team between 2013 and 2017, was found to have made racially discriminatory remarks towards the two Black players in two separate incidents. Advertisement A number of England players voiced their support for Sampson before his dismissal, with members of the team running to the touchline to celebrate a goal by Nikita Parris against Russia with him in September 2017 amid the allegations. Parris, who is also Black, publicly apologised to Aluko in 2020. Women's football in England has also been criticised for its lack of diversity, particularly over the past decade. There were six Black and mixed-race players called up for the 2007 World Cup by the team's Black manager Hope Powell, but just three in the 2022 European Championship-winning squad, by which time current boss Sarina Wiegman was in charge. Four players selected by Wiegman for this tournament are Black or mixed race — Khiara Keating, Carter, Lauren James and Michelle Agyemang. A lack of diversity is something the team themselves have acknowledged. 'Within the squad, this is an important issue and we're all aware of it,' England captain Leah Williamson told BBC Sport in 2022. 'There's nothing that we can do right now to change it.' She added: 'We want to make it as inclusive as possible. We don't ever want anybody to think it's not their game because of the way they look or the colour of their skin.' Defender Lotte Wubben-Moy also told the BBC: 'I'm not going to sit here and say I feel any hardship. I'm White. I have such a massive privilege and I acknowledge that, which is part of the reason why I feel like I have such a responsibility also to push for more change to allow young, Black, Asian; any child to be able to see someone like them playing football.' (Top photos: Getty Images)
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Liverpool could still make more than £200m this summer
Liverpool could still make a lot of money this summer, more than £200m in fact. The reality is that there are a lot of assets that need to be sold by Richard Hughes in this window. At this moment in time, with Hugo Ekitike closing in on a move to Liverpool, the Reds will have 18 non-homegrown players in their first team squad. LFC x Nike Air Max Buy Now LFC Retro Shirts Buy Now LFC Kits Buy Now LFC Nike Training Buy Now The list will include the following players: Alisson, Mamardashvili, Van Dijk, Konate, Robertson, Tsimikas, Kerkez, Mac Allister, Gravenberch, Wirtz, Szoboszlai, Endo, Salah, Diaz, Nunez, Chiesa, Gakpo, Ekitke. In the Premier League, you can only register 17 non-homegrown players so that means one person is guaranteed to be sold. But the reality is that it won't just be one player but multiple players who will move on. From the club's non-homegrown players the likes of Federico Chiesa, Luis Diaz, Kostas Tsimikas and Darwin Nunez could still be in line to leave the club. On top of that homegrown players like Harvey Elliott, Tyler Morton and Owen Beck also face uncertain futures. Meanwhile, U21 stars like Stefan Bajcetic and Ben Doak are again players who could be let go on permanent deal. We've had a look at the potential players who could be sold and for around how much to figure out just how much money Richard Hughes could be in line to make this summer. We've included the list here with some rough estimates of transfer fees. Players to be sold - Luis Diaz - £70m Darwin Nunez - £60m Federico Chiesa - £15m Ben Doak - £25m Kostas Tsimikas - £15m Harvey Elliott - £40m Tyler Morton - £12m These are the players from the first team squad. But some of the club's U21 players could also be set for permanent moves. Among the likeliest to leave and for how much are as follows: Owen Beck - £5m Calvin Ramsay - £1m
