Irish exporters warned to brace for prospect of euro hitting $1.20

Irish Independent

14 hours ago

The euro's latest rally has taken it to the highest level against the dollar in four years and there are signs that the surge has potentially some way to go.
The euro climbed 1.6pc in the past three days, closing in on $1.17. The weak dollar has been a significant trend since Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' in early April significantly undermined confidence in the greenback.
The euro, in contrast, has gained – despite a weaker economy and falling interest rates.
The euro climbed as high as $1.1641 on Tuesday, its strongest intraday level since October 2021.
The stronger euro means US customers of Irish exporters are paying less, leaving Irish businesses having to either raise prices and risk market share, or else absorb a hit to their margins.
There are significant risks that the dollar could weaken further
That effect is compounded by the 10pc tariff now in place on many exports, which could be hiked to 50pc unless a US-EU trade deal is concluded before July 9.
Justin Doyle, a Dublin-based analyst for specialist bank Investec's treasury arm, said there are significant risks that the dollar could weaken further.
He said that if no deal is reached in relation to tariffs, the dollar could decline from its current rate of around $1.16 to perhaps $1.18 and even closer to $1.20.
He said that there are two looming issues for the US – the 'big, beautiful [tax] bill' that Donald Trump is trying to get through Congress and the tariffs deadline of July 9.
Th tax bill promises to cut tax, raise spending and is set to raise the US debt pile by as much as $3trn over the next decade. It also includes a 'revenge tax' that aims to allow the US to target some foreign businesses, investors and individuals, by charging them higher taxes.
'If that goes through as it is, it's not going to be good for foreign direct investment in the US,' said Mr Doyle. He said the bill will also have significant implications for the US debt mountain.
Europe is steady now. It's not the basket case it was
'The ratings agencies, for a start, aren't going to take too kindly to that,' he said. 'The bond markets aren't going to take too kindly to it. If this thing goes through, it's just not going to be good for the US.'
He said the weakness in the dollar reflects 'a lack of confidence in USA Inc'.
'Europe is steady now. Interest rates have come down, inflation is being controlled. The data coming out of Europe is reasonably steady. It's not the basket case it was. There's a level of stability in Europe.'
He said the current exchange rate is probably circling around what is a 'new normal' for both currencies, if Donald Trump's bill manages to get passed.
Meanwhile, the threat to global trade is the biggest concern hanging over business leaders in Ireland.
New data released by the Institute of Directors (IoD) Ireland shows most directors here expect improved financial performance in their business in the second half of 2025, despite the geopolitical turmoil.
However, 42pc of business leaders believe international trade tensions will be the greatest risk to Irish business for the rest of 2025.
A similar level, 43pc, feel pessimistic about the overall prospects of the Irish economy.
Among the specific risks posed by these tariffs, 54pc believed companies will reduce discretionary spending and investment while almost half expect consumers to delay spending decisions.