Is the Aukus submarine deal dead in the water under Trump?
The flagship project of Australia's future maritime defence architecture,
Aukus , has been
placed under review in Washington. For some time, muted speculation about the status of Aukus Pillar I, an
A$368 billion (US$238.5 billion) deal between Canberra, Washington and London to help Australia acquire nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs), has been circulating among analysts and policymakers in Australia amid the upheaval of the Trump administration.
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In Canberra, the government has maintained an anxious silence, most likely in an attempt to limit any noise that may land unfavourably on US President Donald Trump's desk. Now it is clear that a review by the Australian government of Aukus Pillar I must be forthcoming.
A starting point will be a potential conditional rise in Australia's defence spending on further cooperation with the Pentagon. Elbridge Colby, US undersecretary of defence for policy, is advocating a 5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) minimum defence spending threshold among allies, 'not only in Europe but in Asia as well'.
US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth
has stated that 'Australia should increase its defence spending to 3.5 per cent of its GDP as soon as possible'. Australia now spends 2 per cent of GDP on defence. But even with a strengthening of funding for Aukus platforms, projections for 2029 indicate only a modest increase to 2.25 per cent.
This spending hike is certain to rub up against existing agreements under the Aukus 'Optimal Pathway', which will see the United States sell three used Virginia-class SSNs to Australia in 2032, 2035 and 2038.
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The feasibility of the Optimal Pathway is quickly diminishing amid the hype around escalating costs and the limited capacity of the US defence industrial base to meet ambitious delivery timelines.
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