Navigating India-Russia relations in the Trump era

Hindustan Times

01-05-2025

In an international system increasingly shaped by transactional politics, shifting alliances, and strategic recalibrations, the India-Russia partnership has emerged as a resilient pillar of continuity. With Donald Trump's return to the White House in a hypothetical second term, the global order once again leans toward unpredictability. For India, this is both a challenge and an opportunity — to strengthen its traditional ties with Moscow, while continuing to pursue a multi-aligned foreign policy that safeguards its national interests.
India and Russia have shared a durable partnership rooted in Cold War camaraderie, cemented in the 1971 Indo-Soviet Treaty and formalised into a 'special and privileged strategic partnership' in 2010. While many bilateral relationships globally have wavered under geopolitical pressure, India-Russia ties have adapted and endured — anchored primarily in defence, energy, and strategic trust. Even as the US and Russia drifted apart during the post-Crimea years, India managed to maintain strong relations with both. Now, with Trump 2.0 possibly reshaping the US-Russia dynamic, India finds itself with more room to manoeuvre.
Trump's foreign policy doctrine, focused heavily on America First and cutting transactional deals, reduces ideological friction between Washington and Moscow. This could potentially ease pressure on India to reduce defence engagements with Russia, including controversial deals like the S-400 missile system, which have previously attracted US CAATSA threats. However, this also comes with a price: a reinvigorated Russia-China axis. As Moscow leans further toward Beijing, New Delhi is forced to rethink its strategic calculus.
Defence remains the bedrock of India-Russia cooperation. Over 60% of India's military equipment still comes from Russian-origin systems.
The continued deployment of the S-400 systems, scheduled for full activation by 2025, represents India's willingness to push back against western pressure in favour of national defence imperatives. Joint defence production is also thriving — the BrahMos cruise missile, a hallmark of Indo-Russian collaboration, is now being exported to third countries such as the Philippines, showcasing the partnership's global reach. Meanwhile, the indigenous manufacturing of AK-203 assault rifles in Amethi furthers India's quest for defence self-reliance while reinforcing bilateral industrial ties. Negotiations for additional Su-30MKI fighter jets and the lease of a third Russian nuclear-powered submarine (Chakra III) highlight the deep trust and long-term commitment on both sides.
Economic ties, once seen as the weak link in the relationship, are now surging. Bilateral trade reached a record $66 billion in 2024 — a fivefold increase in just five years, largely driven by India's aggressive purchase of discounted Russian crude amidst western sanctions following the Ukraine conflict. Russia has become India's second-largest crude supplier. This surge not only meets India's growing energy needs but also reinforces its strategic autonomy — a principle central to New Delhi's foreign policy doctrine. Investments in Russian Arctic LNG projects and the expansion of the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant further underscore India's long-term commitment to diversifying its energy mix with Russian support.
But India knows the relationship cannot survive on oil and arms alone. Efforts are underway to diversify the economic partnership into pharmaceuticals, IT, and the digital economy. In addition, various unexplored sectors such as agriculture, food processing, rare earth exploration, and mining are being examined as part of India-Russia trade diversification. The target is to reach $100 billion in bilateral trade by 2030. Infrastructure and connectivity initiatives such as the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the proposed Chennai–Vladivostok maritime route aim to cut shipping costs and time by up to 30%, bypassing traditional chokepoints and opening new gateways to Central Asia and Europe.
Still, geopolitical complexities loom large. Russia's growing reliance on China — with whom it reached over $200 billion in trade in 2024 — complicates India's strategic outlook. As Russia and China draw closer, India must ensure that its own interests are not marginalised. The limited but growing Russia-Pakistan defence ties also raise eyebrows in New Delhi, though they remain relatively minor in scale. India's response is pragmatic: Strengthen Quad and Indo-Pacific partnerships with the US, Japan, and Australia, while doubling down on BRICS and SCO diplomacy to maintain Russia's relevance as a counterbalance to China in Eurasia.
In this evolving matrix, India is betting on emerging areas of collaboration to future-proof the relationship. Space cooperation is high on the agenda — Russia continues to support India's Gaganyaan human spaceflight programme, and both sides are exploring joint ventures in AI, cybersecurity, and quantum computing. Investment in infrastructure projects in Russia's Far East and increased people-to-people contacts, including academic exchanges and cultural programmes, are building a more multidimensional relationship.
Trump 2.0 may bring greater unpredictability to global diplomacy, but it also offers India a strategic breather. If Washington, under Trump's leadership, continues to soften its stance on Russia, India will no longer be caught in the crossfire between its defence partner and its Indo-Pacific ally. Still, New Delhi is aware that it cannot take Moscow's goodwill for granted. The key lies in crafting a flexible, forward-looking partnership — one that is not nostalgic for the past, but calibrated for the future.
India's foreign policy under Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to rest on strategic autonomy and multi-alignment. The relationship with Russia is not just about ideology or alignment but about interests — in defence, energy, innovation, and connectivity. As the global order tilts toward multipolarity and transactional diplomacy under Trump's second term, India's ability to maintain strong ties with both Washington and Moscow will be a testament to its growing diplomatic maturity and global ambition. The India-Russia equation, far from being a Cold War relic, is a living, evolving partnership — one that still holds strategic relevance in an increasingly volatile world.
This article is authored by Pravesh Kumar Gupta, associate fellow (Eurasia), Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi.